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Beef production in key producing and consuming regions is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2025 compared to 2024 volumes, resulting in the first global beef contraction in five years. New Zealand is expected to experience the largest percentage drop in production, down 4.7% (34,000 metric tons), while the US, with its larger production base, is expected to see the largest drop in volume, falling almost 500,000 metric tons (down 4%). Canada and the EU27+UK are also expected to see a contraction of 3.9% and 3%, respectively (50,000 metric tons and 225,000 metric tons). Beef production in 2026 is expected to see the contraction in production continue with an estimated drop of 3.1%. Northern Hemisphere cattle prices remained elevated in comparison to Southern Hemisphere prices. Southern Hemisphere cattle prices all edged higher through September and October – with the exception of Argentina – as southern cattle supplies are being drawn on to supply Northern Hemisphere markets. In the feature article we look at Mexico’s cattle and beef sector, entering 2026 at a pivotal moment. After two consecutive years of herd contraction – driven by drought and strong export incentives – the supply situation is finally stabilizing. However, the adjustment remains uneven, influenced by disease-related (screwworm) border restrictions, shifting trade flows, and volatile domestic prices, margins and costs.
Global aquaculture production is expected to slow in 2026 after a strong performance in 2025, with growth moderating across several key species. Softer demand, particularly in the US, combined with persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions, may dampen production incentives. Feed prices are anticipated to partially stabilize; however, ongoing volatility in key inputs driven by weather conditions and trade dynamics may limit cost relief for some producers.Among major species, carps are projected to lead with 6% year-over-year growth. In Europe, Atlantic salmon is expected to grow by 2%, reflecting a normalization after strong gains in 2025, while sea bass and sea bream are forecast to accelerate to 4% growth amid improving production conditions. Global shrimp production is set to expand by 3%, entering a phase of more gradual growth. However, regional disparities persist, with Ecuador continuing to drive the majority of global output.
The Brazilian agriculture ministry has been notified by Chinese authorities that five Brazilian soy exporters have been banned from shipping the grain to the Asian country, Reuters reported. On Wednesday, Brazilian newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo reported that China had stopped 69,000 metric tons of Brazilian soybeans from entering its territory after finding wheat treated with pesticides in the hold of the ship transporting the cargo. "This is about five facilities, among more than 2,000 authorised to export soybeans to China," the ministry said without providing additional details. "The case is being addressed as a matter of utmost priority." According to Folha's report, exports from two Cargill plants as well as three others controlled by Louis Dreyfus, CHS Agronegocio and 3Tentos would be suspended as of Thursday in connection with the incident. Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, and CHS Agronegocio did not reply to requests for comment, while 3Tentos declined to comment. The agriculture ministry said it still has "a solid and strategic relationship with China," adding that this year Brazil will export more than 100 million tons of soybeans to its largest agricultural trading partner. "When notified of any potential non-compliance, the Brazilian government conducts assessments with transparency, responsibility, and agility," the ministry said.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 24th November 2025
- Cash Markets (Nov 21): Butter at $1.4775/lb (-0.0255 weekly avg); barrels $1.5825/lb (-0.0555); blocks $1.5500/lb (-0.0300); NDM $1.1825/lb (+0.0225); dry whey $0.7600/lb (+0.0270).
- Fluid Milk: September packaged sales up 2.5% y/y to 3.6B lbs; conventional +2.7%, organic +0.5%. Holiday demand boosts Class I/II, with spot Class III $1.50 under to over Class.
- Advanced Pricing (Dec): Class I base $18.21/cwt (+$1.46 m/m); Class II skim $9.19/cwt; product avgs: butter $1.6239/lb, NDM $1.1611/lb, cheese $1.7920/lb, whey $0.6230/lb.
- Supply/Demand: 2025 milk production up (higher herds/cow yields); 2026 also lifted. Organic milk premium $3.24/half-gallon (down 68% ads w/w).
- International: Australia milk exports +12.3% (Jul-Sep); NZ Oct production +1.7%; Southern Cone/Brazil collections strong but prices soft; Europe pushes reforms amid tight margins.
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