The 2025 Golden Vines Report, which is put together by Liquid Icons, polled more than 800 wine merchants, sommeliers, Masters of Wine, and professionals across the liquor industry – both in wholesale and retail – to get their prognosis for the industry's immediate future. And the results don't really make entirely happy reading.
Less than half the respondents in the wine and spirit categories – 46 percent in each case – were optimistic about the coming year, with 15 percent of respondents neither positive nor negative in the wine industry, while 39 rated their outlook as negative or very negative. For spirits the neutral/negative split was 25 and 29 percent. So at least the optimists outweigh the pessimists.
The major challenges and trends the report highlighted for the fine wine market make for familiar reading.
First up was a decline in consumption and a shift to "drink less, but better", a mantra that the industry has heard a lot of over the past couple of years.
It's effectively split into two parts. A downward volume trend with a substantial number reporting consumers are drinking less wine overall, largely due to health concerns, price rises, and changing lifestyles, especially among younger generations.
Premiumization: simultaneously, there is a marked industry shift from volume to value: more than 150 responses noted an increase in demand for higher-quality bottles, with consumers spending more per bottle and focusing on provenance, uniqueness, and smaller producers.
Organic Wine -A Sip of Sustainability or Just Hype?
More than 40 percent of weighted responses mentioned premiumization, and the "drink less, but better" sentiment recurred in nearly 30 percent of all individual answers.
"People are drinking less, but they want better wine, unique experiences, and stories," the report concluded.
The second trend was around the no- and low-alcohol (Nolo) sector, where the report noted an ongoing surge in demand for Nolo wines, driven by global health movements, wellness culture, and generational shifts. More than one-fourth of responses explicitly called out Nolo and health-conscious options as priorities, with prominent mentions of moderation, sugar reduction, and lighter styles.
Sustainability, transparency and climate action was the next trending area, with the report concluding that "sustainability will continue to be a priority. Fine wine buyers, particularly younger collectors and connoisseurs, are prioritizing transparency."
Possibly the trend that will worry the industry most (after falling consumption) is the area around price, market access and more industry consolidation.
Many respondents (more than 20 percent) highlighted the ongoing global price correction, especially for high-end Bordeaux and Burgundy, with reports of an average 30 percent drop in secondary market values.
Respondents also reported oversupply, distributor and merchant consolidation, increased competition for shelf space, and new regions gaining ground as legacy regions become less accessible or affordable. Some 15-20 percent of responses cited "correction", "consolidation", or "market entry barriers" as core trends.
Other challenges listed included regional climate impact; tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty; digitalization of the marketplace; and experience and customer engagement.
On the spirits side, the tale was also depressingly familiar: premiumization and collectability; reduced consumption; innovation around new categories and flavors; digitalization and authentication; price corrections and market consolidation; climate change; tariffs; and customer engagement.
There was some good news in the report, especially when it came to regions with the most upside potential over the next 12 months: Piedmont, Champagne, Burgundy, Tuscany and Australia were the five regions with the sunniest outlook. However, the regions with most downside turned out to be Bordeaux, Burgundy, Champagne, California and Australia, demonstrating just how much of a knife-edge the industry is balancing on.
It will be interesting to see how the predictions work out.
