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Olive oil supply has become increasingly unstable over the past decade. The production rebound in the 2024/25 season has triggered a sharp correction in prices, which have dropped to EUR 3,200 per metric ton in March, from a record high of nearly EUR 9,000 per metric ton in January 2024. At the same time, the Mediterranean region faces rising temperatures, lower rainfall, greater climate variability, and more frequent extreme weather making production outcomes increasingly unpredictable. In the long term, the key challenge is not a decline in production, but rather growing volatility in production and orchards must adapt to changing conditions. Irrigation is the primary adaptation measure, making access to fresh water the key enabler of yield stability and long-term orchard viability. However, there's no one-size-fits-all solution; strategies must be tailored to local conditions and include complementary measures that could further reduce volatility.
The aquaculture industry is facing growing demand for fishmeal and fish oil, driven by the expansion of high-value species and the adoption of more intensive farming practices. However, this rising demand is colliding with stagnant marine ingredient availability and increasing vulnerability to supply shocks --particularly those linked to climate change and recurring El Niño events. In recent years, supply disruptions have had a more pronounced impact on fishmeal and fish oil prices, as the narrowing supply-demand gap has made demand more inelastic. Looking ahead, fishmeal shortages are projected to emerge as early as 2028, while fish oil scarcity is expected to intensify throughout the decade. As shortages deepen, demand inelasticity is likely to increase further, leading to greater price volatility and establishing higher price benchmarks during future supply shocks. To support sustainable growth, the aquaculture sector must adopt proactive strategies to secure access to essential feed ingredients. Novel feed sources will play a critical role --not merely as alternatives, but as essential components of future feed formulations. Embracing these innovations will be key to building resilience and ensuring long-term viability in a resource-constrained environment.
Weekly US beef, pork export sales
Beef: Net sales of 15,800 MT for 2025 were up 31 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (8,000 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Indonesia (1,600 MT, including 200 MT - late), Canada (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (1,000 MT), were offset by reductions for the United Kingdom (100 MT). Net sales of 400 MT for 2026 were for Japan. Exports of 13,200 MT were up 52 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,000 MT), South Korea (3,200 MT), Mexico (1,600 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT), and Hong Kong (1,000 MT). Late Reporting: For 2025, net sales totaling 352 MT of beef were reported late for Indonesia (218 MT) and the Philippines (134 MT). Exports of 352 MT of beef were reported late to Indonesia (218 MT) and the Philippines (134 MT).
Pork: Net sales of 22,000 MT for 2025 were up 27 percent from the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (6,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (6,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (3,000 MT), Colombia (1,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT, including decreases of 300 MT). Exports of 29,400 MT were up 26 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (14,500 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), China (2,800 MT), South Korea (1,900 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT).
American farmers are feeling the pain of US trade policies
U.S. agricultural communities that once saw Donald Trump as a reliable champion are increasingly feeling the sting of his aggressive trade policies. Farmers, who overwhelmingly supported Trump in past elections, are now caught in the crossfire of escalating tariff battles that have revived painful memories of the first trade war with China earlier in his presidency.
Producers of soybeans, corn, pork, and dairy have been hit particularly hard as foreign buyers, notably in China and the European Union, scale back purchases or impose retaliatory tariffs. While Trump argues that the tariffs are essential to protect U.S. manufacturing and reduce dependence on adversarial nations, the immediate result for farmers has been falling export demand, rising input costs, and thinning margins. “We backed him because we thought he understood rural America,” said an Iowa soybean grower. “But now we’re on the front lines again — and it’s killing our markets.”
Mounting economic pressure in farm country. Commodity prices have softened even as production costs remain high, leaving many producers struggling to break even. Farm groups warn that the financial stress could force more operations to rely on emergency credit or government aid, repeating the bailout cycles of the last trade war.
Rural banks are also sounding alarms about deteriorating farm balance sheets, especially as rising interest rates over recent years have made refinancing harder. Young farmers and smaller operations are particularly vulnerable, with many reporting they are delaying equipment purchases or cutting back on hired labor.
Political risk on the horizon. If the trade tensions persist into the 2026 election cycle, they could upend traditional political loyalties in farm country. Farmers who once viewed Trump as their strongest advocate are increasingly questioning whether his tariff-centric strategy is worth the price.
Several agricultural organizations have quietly urged the administration to pursue negotiated market access agreements instead of relying on punitive tariffs. Whether those concerns gain traction in Washington — or translate into political fallout — may hinge on how quickly the trade war’s economic damage spreads beyond the farm gate into rural communities at large.
USDA reports on Argentina livestock trade
USDA says Argentina is set to remain a powerhouse in global beef trade, with 2026 exports forecast at 830,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE), the second highest on record. Robust international prices and a more competitive peso are breathing new life into packer margins. China will continue to dominate as the leading market, while shipments to the United States and European Union strengthen. Despite booming exports, beef production is expected to remain stagnant for a fifth straight year.
U.S. beef prices are climbing toward record highs as tight domestic cattle supplies collide with new tariffs choking off Brazilian imports. Weekly cattle slaughter has dropped nearly 9% from a year ago, reflecting the smallest U.S. herd in decades and a recent ban on purchases from Mexico over sanitary concerns.
Imports from Brazil — long a key supplier of lean trimmings for U.S. ground beef — have nearly doubled this year but are now stalling after President Trump slapped a higher tariff in August, pushing the effective duty to 76.4%. Inventories stockpiled ahead of the tariffs are expected to run out within months, amplifying price pressure as U.S. consumers face the prospect of beef becoming “the egg problem” of the Biden administration, according to PMI Foods’ Darin Parker.
Australia, which faces only a 10% tariff, has boosted shipments 22% this year and is poised to benefit, while Uruguay and Argentina also expand sales despite higher duties. Still, analysts warn the supply won’t be enough to cover U.S. demand, with Parker cautioning: “The only person that really gets damaged in all of this is the U.S. consumer.”
China poultry production up next year: USDA
USDA reports China’s chicken meat production and consumption will grow modestly in 2026, though market saturation from 2025 is likely to persist for some time.. Imports remain limited by HPAI-related restrictions on Brazil and parts of the United States, as well as retaliatory tariffs. U.S. chicken paws continue to hold a niche market, though growth is constrained by inspection delays and other non-tariff measures.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 15th September 2025
The consumption of milk products, eggs and fish has a positive effect on childhood development in Africa. This has been demonstrated in a recent study by the CABI's regional centre for Africa in Nairobi, Kenya and the University of Bonn. The researchers used representative data from five African countries with over 32,000 child observations. If the children had a diet containing animal products, they suffered less from malnutrition and related developmental deficiencies. The study has now been published in the journal PNAS.
Almost 150 million children under the age of five around the world suffer from serious growth and developmental disorders. This is also described as “stunting” in scientific circles and is caused by an insufficient supply of essential nutrients. Stunting not only causes children to have a shorter stature but is also related to impaired mental development and increased child mortality rates.
Studies have shown that the consumption of meat, milk products, eggs, and fish can reduce the risk of these developmental deficits. “However, no reliable scientific evidence of these effects had been produced up to now in Africa,” explains Dr. Makaiko Khonje from the CABI's regional centre for Africa in Nairobi, Kenya.
This is now no longer the case after the completion of this latest study in which Khonje and Prof. Dr. Matin Qaim from the Center for Development Research (ZEF) at the University of Bonn evaluated data from five African countries. The data was sourced from representative surveys carried out in Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda. It covered more than 32,000 observations of children aged up to five years old. Many of the boys and girls were examined multiple times over the years.
Animal products significantly reduce the risk of stunting
The results speak for themselves: If the girl or boy consumed animal products even occasionally, the risk of stunting fell by almost seven percentage points. The consumption of eggs had the largest effect, followed by milk products and fish. In the case of meat, the developmental effects were positive in some countries but not in others. The researchers filtered out the influence of other factors such as family income or parental education in their statistical analysis.
The study also showed that fruits, vegetables and pulses were good for growth and development.
“However, the positive effect of a purely plant-based diet was lower than if the child also consumed animal products,” says Khonje. “Especially in rural areas, a sufficient amount of nutritious plant-based food is often not available throughout the year. Our results indicate that access to animal-sourced foods should be improved, especially for poorer families, in order to combat malnutrition.”
The results cannot be transferred to richer countries
Livestock farming is a driver of global warming. It produces significantly more greenhouse gases than the cultivation of cereals, fruit or vegetables.
“It will only be possible to achieve our climate targets if we significantly reduce the consumption of animal products worldwide,” emphasizes Matin Qaim, who is also a member of the transdisciplinary research area (TRA) “Sustainable Futures” and in the PhenoRob Cluster of Excellence.
Nevertheless, different approaches are required to achieve this goal.
“People in Europe and North America consume four times more milk and meat on average than people in Africa. Therefore, it is certainly sensible in high-income countries to limit the consumption of animal-sourced food,” says Qaim. “Yet such a step would further exacerbate the issue of malnutrition in children in poorer populations on the African continent.”
It is also not possible to transfer the results of the study to Germany: The consumption of animal products in Germany is significantly higher than is recommended for a healthy diet.
The paper is part of a PNAS Special Feature that focuses on the sustainability of animal-sourced foods and plant-based alternatives. Prof. Qaim, a “Schlegel Chair” at the University of Bonn, is one of the leading researchers behind this “Special Feature.”
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