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Australian production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 47.05m tonnes, a marginal increase of 1.1% or 0.5m tonnes YOY. The positive start and good rainfall during the growing season in Queensland, northern New South Wales, and some areas in Western Australia largely counterbalanced shortfalls in Victoria and South Australia’s precipitation. The small uptick compared to 2023/24 will come mainly from wheat and, to a lesser extent, from pulses and oats. Canola and barley production may be lower year-on-year due to the combination of low rainfall and late frosts that struck many crops at a critical period. As expected, canola production is poised to be smaller year-on-year, not only due to a smaller cropping area but also to weather setbacks.
Approximately 90% of global rice production occurs in Asia. While rice production area and yield in Asia have increased over the past two decades, the rate of growth has been slowing. RaboResearch expects these trends to continue, limiting global rice production and consumption growth in the medium to long term. Moreover, in 2023, Vietnam’s government approved a strategy to cut the country’s exports by more than half by 2030. Vietnam is a major player in the global rice market and among the top 9 rice exporters. If successfully implemented, this strategy could have a significant impact and compound the effects of limited consumption and production growth in the region.
In May 2023, the Vietnamese government approved a strategy to reduce the country’s rice exports by 2030. As Vietnam is a major player in global rice exports, RaboResearch expects that a successful implementation would create supply challenges in the global rice market. In this report, we analyze the long-term outlook for Vietnam’s rice supply and domestic demand and the potential impacts on Vietnam's trade partners. This is the first report in a RaboResearch series on the long-term outlook for global rice supply and demand. This report discusses Vietnam’s role in the global market, as well as its likely production and trade over the next decade following the government’s decision to reduce rice exports.
Domestic food price inflation remains high in many low- and middle-income countries. Inflation higher than 5% is experienced in 70% of low-income countries (6.2 percentage points lower), 47.8% of lower-middle-income countries (3. percentage points lower), 36% of upper-middle-income countries (2.0 percentage points lower), and 9.1% of high-income countries (0.2 percentage points higher). In real terms, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation in 59.8% of the 164 countries where data is available.
Since the last update on October 18, 2024, the agricultural and cereal price indices closed 1 and 2 percent higher, respectively; the export price index closed at the same level. Maize prices closed 7% higher, while wheat and rice prices closed 5% lower respectively. On a year-on-year basis, maize prices are 9% lower and rice prices 8% lower, while wheat prices are 1% higher. Compared to January 2020, maize prices are 9% higher, wheat prices 3% lower, and rice prices 29% higher. (See “pink sheet” data for agricultural commodity and food commodity prices indices, updated monthly.)
The November 2024 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor highlighted a range of price fluctuations and policy changes in global agriculture in October. Wheat prices reached multi-month highs, largely because of weather-related planting delays in the northern hemisphere, but later eased as conditions improved. Maize prices also increased slightly, even with swift harvest progress in the United States, whereas rice and soybean prices fell. In policy moves, India removed the minimum export price for non-basmati white rice, and Bangladesh and Türkiye relaxed import restrictions on maize, rice, and vegetable oils.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update -18th November 2024
In the most recent Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank is projecting a 4% decrease in the agriculture commodity prices index in 2025 before stabilizing in 2026, after a 2% increase in 2024. The report also summarizes concerns about food insecurity and noted that the world remains far from achieving the goal of zero hunger by 2030. Conflict, extreme weather, and economic shocks are the major drivers of food insecurity. It is projected that food prices will decrease by 4% in 2025 before stabilizing in 2026.
The latest Hunger Hotspots Report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP) warns about worsening acute food insecurity in 16 hunger hotspots (covering 22 countries and territories) that will require urgent action between November 2024 and May 2025. Conflict, climate, and the economy are the primary drivers of food insecurity. Conflict continues to be the primary drivers of hunger in 15 hotspots.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade-related policies imposed by countries have surged. The global food crisis has been partially made worse by the growing number of food and fertilizer trade restrictions put in place by countries with a goal of increasing domestic supply and reducing prices. As of November 2024, 17 countries have implemented 22 food export bans, and 8 have implemented 12 export-limiting measures.
SOUTH AFRICA
According to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion Panel, the prospects of La Niña weather have receded from 60% in its October 2024 release to the latest 57% chance issued in November 2024. La Niña is likely to emerge during the October to December 2024 period and it is expected to persist through January to March 2025. The declining probability of La Niña demands close monitoring and careful management of the situation on the ground. The Crop Estimates Committee released the 3 rd 2024/25 winter crop production estimates. Wheat is forecast at 1.96 million tons, up by 1.3% from the 2 nd forecast. Canola is forecast at 295 165 tons, up by 0.2% from the 2 nd forecast. Statistics South Africa released the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, which is data on the labour market activities of individuals aged 15 years and older who live in South Africa for the third quarter of 2024. The agricultural sector was one of the sectors that recorded employment gains, with the number of people employed in the sector increasing by 39 000 or 4.4% quarter-on-quarter to 935 000 people. This increment was mainly spurred by Limpopo, Gauteng, the Western, and Eastern Cape provinces.
This week, the rand averaged R18.03/US$, weakening by 2.9% w/w but strengthening by 2.4% y/y. The local currency weakened following Donald Trump’s US election win and ahead of S&P Global’s scheduled review of South Africa’s sovereign credit rating. • This week, the Brent crude oil price averaged US$72.36/barrel, down by 2.5% w/w and by 8.7% y/y. Oil prices declined mainly on OPEC’s reduced demand forecast and US$ strength. • The price of Brent crude oil has decreased slightly relative to October 2024. The lower oil price is, however, likely to be overridden by a depreciated rand. For the remainder of this month, we expect the oil price to remain somewhat stable and the exchange rate to remain weak. As a result, the following local fuel price increases are forecast for 04 December 2024: petrol (95 unleaded) by 50c/l; diesel 500 ppm and 50ppm by 64c/l and 62c/l, respectively.
This week, the yellow maize price averaged R4 927/ton, up by 3.1% w/w and by 29.6% y/y. The white maize price averaged R5 965/ton, up by 1.9% w/w and by 46.8% y/y. • Domestic maize prices posted some gains this week on the back of a weaker rand, tighter supplies, and good buying demand. Fundamentally, the surge seen in white maize primarily reflects the impacts of the 2024 El Niño drought on the harvest, with the weaker local currency also adding to this surge. • Chicago maize prices faltered yesterday on trader concerns about the implications of the Trump victory on domestic demand. This is due to his administration’s anticipated unfriendly stance on the biofuel industry. • In week-28 of the domestic 2024/25 MY, 10.363 million tons of white and yellow maize had cumulatively been delivered. In the same week, cumulative exports of white and yellow maize reached a combined 1.202 million tons. • The top three export destinations of white maize were Zimbabwe (433 567 tons), Namibia (118 346 tons), and Mozambique (54 517 tons). The top three destinations of yellow maize were Zimbabwe (229 894 tons), Eswatini (47 756 tons), and Mozambique (35 469 tons).
This week, the soya bean price averaged R8 965/ton, up by 2.5% w/w but down by 4.6% y/y. The sunflower seed price averaged R11 027/ton, up by 0.5% w/w and by 21% y/y. • The domestic oilseed prices were supported by rand weakness and international buying demand. • Chicago soya bean contracts slumped due to traders assessing the impact of Trump’s incoming administration, that is viewed as unfavourable for the biofuel industry. • Cumulative domestic oilseed deliveries by week-37 of the 2024/25 MY stood at 1.755 million tons of soya bean and 627 399 tons of sunflower seed.
This week, the wheat price averaged R5 834/ton, up by 2% w/w but down by 1% y/y. • The domestic wheat prices got support from the weaker rand. • In week-06 of the new 2024/25 MY, cumulative wheat deliveries were at 290 524 tons. • In the same week, cumulative wheat imports stood at 226 164 tons, with the 70 368 tons coming from Russia, 65 703 tons coming from Lithuania, and 54 105 tons coming from Canada.
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