World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update - 21st October 2024

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update - 21st October 2024

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The oil market is headed into a troubled year in 2025, and crude prices may fall "much, much" lower, according to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service. The oil analyst said crude prices would experience more downward pressure in 2025 despite concerns that conflict in the Middle East could escalate and send prices higher. Estimates from other energy forecasters, who have predicted that oil prices could trade as low as $50 a barrel, a decline of about 37% from where Brent crude was trading on Thursday.

Namibia has resumed imports of live poultry and birds from South Africa, Reuters reported, citing a statement from the agriculture ministry. Namibia banned imports of live poultry, birds and poultry products from neighbouring South Africa in September 2023, following an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the country. Namibia consumes an estimated 2,500 metric tons of chicken every month, typically relying on imports mainly from South Africa. The ministry also said it had suspended imports of live birds and uncooked poultry products from Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state following an outbreak of the avian Newcastle disease.

Russia has been stepping up its attacks on Ukrainian grain ships and ports. It recently shelled the Port of Odesa, killing one person and injuring eight others. “The enemy is once again attacking civilian vessels, grain storage facilities and terminals,” Andril Dykun, chair of the Ukrainian Agri Council, said in a news release. The group claims Russia’s goal is to jeopardize food security, destroy Ukraine’s economy and remove Ukraine’s agricultural products from the world market, replacing them with Russian products. The ship was carrying 45 containers of packaged sunflower oil, which was humanitarian aid ordered by the United Nations to be delivered to Palestine.

More US wine and spirits brands are choosing a bold go-to-market strategy: national alignment. Enabled by consolidation, fueled by competition between the largest wholesalers, and pushed even further by suppliers aggressively negotiating for and prioritizing favorable contracts, large suppliers are agreeing to work exclusively with one large distributor across that distributor’s entire footprint. Signing a national agreement is rarely the optimal decision for smaller brands, but for big brands, whether to align with a large wholesaler and how to maximize the benefits of that partnership are the most important go-to-market decisions they face. Unfortunately, the secrecy and sensitivity surrounding this topic means there are almost no resources to help suppliers navigate this critical issue. To fill this gap, we are writing a three-part series on national agreements. Thus far, we have spoken to more than a dozen distributors, retailers, consultants, and suppliers to sort through the complicated strategic questions surrounding national agreements and offer best practices for brands confronting this high-stakes component of their go-to-market strategy.

The productivity and performance benefits of new heavy-duty suspension developed for 2025 Case IH Quadtrac flagship tractors have been recognised with an EIMA International 2024 Technical Innovation award from an international industry expert judging panel. The heavy-duty suspension is designed from the ground up for 715+ rated horsepower, as available on the recently-introduced Quadtrac 715. The system is completely mechanical and hydraulically-cushioned, with no additional sensors or wiring. Independently suspended idler and mid-roller wheels in the undercarriage provide a 42% reduction in vertical acceleration at the operator seat during road travel. Featuring independent double axis suspension, the mid-rollers fully follow ground contours, permitting higher field travel speeds in rough field conditions to ensure high workrates and the desired results from implements.

 Throughout 2024, both supply and price trends in the U.S. corn market have been compared to those of 2014, and there is yet another similarity to add to the list. Last Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised domestic corn yield to 183.8 bushels per acre, marking the third consecutive month in which the agency’s U.S. corn yield peg edged upward. The last time U.S. corn yield estimates rose in each month over this same stretch was in 2014. Similar to the 2024 expectation, the final 2014 corn yield reflected a notable jump from the previous national record.The major jump in U.S. corn supplies in 2024 from 2023 has been one of the most obvious linkages to 2014. Ending stocks for 2013-14 and 2023-24 each represented four-year highs, but they both came in notably lighter than earlier forecasts.

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update - 14 October 2024

The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) recovered by 10 points to 48 in the third quarter of 2024 (Q3-2024), following a 2-point decline in Q2-2024 to 38. While the improvement in the ACI to 48 points is encouraging, it remains below the neutral 50-point mark, implying that South African agribusinesses remain somewhat cautious about agribusiness conditions. Nonetheless, this most recent improvement in the ACI indicates some improvement in business sentiment across the agricultural sector. Several factors underpinned this improvement in sentiment, namely, the improvement in the energy availability factor in the country and the GNU which seems to have reached its norming stage. With the 2024/25 summer crop production season having kicked-off in the eastern production regions, it is worth noting that the terms of trade (the extent to which producer prices cover the cost of inputs) are expected to be better than in the previous summer crop production season. Weather forecasts predicting the return of La Niña at 60% chance have also boosted agricultural morale.

In the US, consumer spending at convenience stores (c-stores) that offer fresh foods and beverages is increasing. These enhanced c-stores, often housed in upgraded and larger locations with dine-in options, now account for 58% of all spending at c-stores, up from 48% five years ago. Data indicates that c-stores offering a broader range of fresh food options have experienced higher traffic growth compared to traditional c-stores and even quick-service restaurants (QSRs).In the US, c-stores are closely associated with fueling needs, with approximately 80% of c-stores also selling gas. These stores account for an estimated 80% of all gas purchased in the country. This report will focus on the majority of c-stores that are adjacent to gas stations, excluding most street-facing stores and those located in malls and airports.

The wheat price averaged R5 980/ton, up by 0.12% w/w but down by 3.6% y/y. • The wheat prices were supported by the weaker rand. • In week-02 of the new 2024/25 MY, cumulative wheat deliveries were at 2 968 tons. • In the same week, cumulative wheat imports stood at 60 262 tons, with the 60 262 tons coming from Lithuania.

The soya bean price averaged R8 478/ton, down by 2.4% w/w and by 8.1% y/y. The sunflower seed price averaged R9 910/ton, up by 1.2% w/w and by 15% y/y. • The domestic oilseed prices traded mixed from the influence of a weaker rand and sluggish Chicago soya bean prices that only recovered towards the end of the week. • Chicago soya bean contracts bounced back yesterday following weakness in the previous sessions due to harvesting pressure in the US and market participants awaiting the policy direction from a new president in three weeks. • Cumulative domestic oilseed deliveries by week-33 of the 2024/25 MY stood at 1.739 million tons of soya bean and 623 386 tons of sunflower seed.

 

 

Commodities October 20 2024 

  

Silver 6.34% 33.71 USD
Palladium 3.63% 1,083.50 USD
Zinc 2.47% 3,081.70 USD
Cocoa 2.06% 5,856.00 GBP
Platinum 1.91% 1,016.00 USD

Commodity Prices

Precious Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Gold
2,721.43
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
10/19/2024
Palladium
1,083.50
3.63%
38.00
USD per Troy Ounce
10/18/2024
Platinum
1,016.00
1.91%
19.00
USD per Troy Ounce
10/18/2024
Silver
33.71
6.34%
2.01
USD per Troy Ounce
10/18/2024
Energy Price % +/- Unit Date
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
2.25
-4.21%
-0.10
USD per MMBtu
10/18/2024
Ethanol
2.16
0.05%
0.00
per Gallon
10/18/2024
Heating Oil
56.80
-1.83%
-1.06
USD per 100 Liter
10/18/2024
Coal
118.75
0.21%
0.25
per Ton
10/18/2024
RBOB Gasoline
2.00
-1.95%
-0.04
per Gallone
10/18/2024
Uranium
82.75
-0.66%
-0.55
per 250 Pfund U308
10/18/2024
Oil (Brent)
73.17
-1.73%
-1.29
USD per Barrel
10/18/2024
Oil (WTI)
69.38
-1.95%
-1.38
USD per Barrel
10/18/2024
Industrial Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Aluminium
2,590.10
1.43%
36.60
USD per Ton
10/18/2024
Lead
2,034.50
-0.15%
-3.15
USD per Ton
10/18/2024
Iron Ore
105.37
0.01%
0.01
per Dry Metric Ton
10/18/2024
Copper
9,502.86
1.26%
118.11
USD per Ton
10/18/2024
Nickel
16,777.50
0.92%
152.50
USD per Ton
10/18/2024
Zinc
3,081.70
2.47%
74.40
USD per Ton
10/18/2024
Tin
31,494.00
0.62%
193.00
USD per Ton
10/18/2024
Agriculture Price % +/- Unit Date
Cotton
0.71
0.28%
0.00
USc per lb.
10/18/2024
Oats
3.82
-1.35%
-0.05
USc per Bushel
10/18/2024
Lumber
527.50
0.48%
2.50
per 1.000 board feet
10/18/2024
Coffee
2.56
0.79%
0.02
USc per lb.
10/18/2024
Cocoa
5,856.00
2.06%
118.00
GBP per Ton
10/17/2024
Live Cattle
1.88
0.55%
0.01
USD per lb.
10/18/2024
Lean Hog
0.78
0.03%
0.00
USc per lb.
10/18/2024
Corn
4.04
-0.68%
-0.03
USc per Bushel
10/18/2024
Feeder Cattle
2.48
0.50%
0.01
USc per lb.
10/18/2024
Milk
22.76
0.26%
0.06
USD per cwt.sh.
10/18/2024
Orange Juice
4.77
-3.13%
-0.15
USc per lb.
10/18/2024
Palm Oil
4,318.00
-0.55%
-24.00
Ringgit per Ton
10/18/2024
Rapeseed
501.75
1.11%
5.50
EUR per Ton
10/18/2024
Rice
15.00
0.20%
0.03
per cwt.
10/18/2024
Soybean Meal
316.00
-0.60%
-1.90
USD per Ton
10/18/2024
Soybeans
9.70
-2.02%
-0.20
USc per Bushel
10/18/2024
Soybean Oil
0.42
-1.90%
-0.01
USD per lb.
10/18/2024
Wheat
226.75
-1.52%
-3.50
USc per Ton
10/18/2024
Sugar
0.22
-0.23%
0.00
USc per lb.
10/18/2024