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China is poised to drive 40% of the global growth in seafood consumption to 2030, an increase of over 5.5m metric tons. China’s economic prosperity, coupled with its population of 1.4bn consumers and a high affinity for seafood, positions it as the most promising growth market for seafood this decade. However, potential limitations on the supply side, such as enduring environmental damage, scarcity of resources, and increasing wages, could impact both domestic production and opportunities to export. Given the supply-side challenges, China is set to seek resources beyond its borders to ensure adequate supply and close the widening gap between demand and supply by the decade’s end. The forecast for China’s seafood demand for the remainder of the decade is a combination of volume- and value-driven growth. We anticipate that the growth of upper-middle-class consumer groups and the expansion of e-commerce channels will drive a trend toward demand for higher-value seafood in the long term. As a result, we expect growth in value-driven consumption to outpace volume-driven consumption, potentially expanding China into a USD 29bn market for seafood imports by 2030, surpassing the current US import market, which is valued at USD 25bn. Volume-based opportunities will still be significant, with domestic producers likely to benefit, as domestic products are cheaper, and the mass market is likely to remain price-sensitive. As China transitions to being the major global seafood buyer and price setter, the decisions it makes regarding seafood consumption and sourcing will have a global impact. These decisions will affect the supply dynamics and prices of most major premium seafood species worldwide, as well as the inputs used to produce them, significantly influencing global seafood trade. Given these factors, China has the potential to emerge as the most important growth market for global seafood exporters this decade. It will be important for these exporters to monitor China’s evolving demand dynamics closely to identity potential untapped opportunities.
Over the past three years, milk supply growth from the Big 7 exporting regions has been inconsistent, with only three quarters since 2H 2021 recording positive milk production growth. Factors like unpredictable weather, fewer cattle, and high feed costs have contributed to this struggle. However, recent improvements in milk prices and cheaper feed have boosted farmer sentiment and margins.We expect supply from the Big 7 milk-producing regions to increase modestly over the second half of 2024, with 0.14% year-on-year growth forecast for the entire year. We project a 0.65% year-on-year supply increase for 2025, potentially surpassing the five-year average. We expect China’s milk production to decline by 0.5% in 2025 due to economic pressures and lower demand, leading to a 12% drop in net imports for 2024 compared to 2023. Despite mixed demand and retail price deflation in some regions, the global dairy market remains balanced but sensitive to changes. The next year could see significant shifts as production increases and markets adjust.
The first half of 2024 was stronger than we expected in global beef markets. Brazil had record production and exports in Q2, China had a record volume of imports in 1H, production volumes in the US were higher than expected, and prices in Europe remained remarkably strong. Looking forward, the markets are waiting for signals of what we believe will unfold. A contraction in US production, improved cattle prices in Brazil, and possibly weaker consumer sentiment in the US. Global production looks set to lift slightly in Q4 before falling further into 2025. Higher production volumes in Australia do not offset declines in Europe (-1%), New Zealand (-7%), Brazil, the US, and China but overall Q4 production is expected to be 3.8% higher than the ten-year average. We then expect it will contract, mainly due to lower production volumes in the US and declining volumes in Brazil. The drop in US production below the ten-year average in Q3 2024 and continuation at volumes below the average into 2025 will have a big impact on the global market.Emerging consumer trends in China are impacting the beef product mix. The Chinese beef market still has ample growth potential, given per capita consumption is lower than other developed Asian countries. However, new consumer trends are emerging, which will change consumption. Overall, the premiumization trend is slowing, while consumers are pursuing quality and value. Rising beef consumption volume, despite slower income growth, shows consumers continue to seek higher quality protein but at reasonable prices.
Pulses are a highly fragmented niche segment within the grain and oilseed space, but one with great potential. New demand is arising, providing opportunities for both new and old pulse market players. Pulses have also become a star in the drive to make agriculture more sustainable, due to their natural soil-enhancing and greenhouse gas-absorbing properties. There are just a few major players in the production and exporting of pulses but new market players are emerging in global trade. Market transparency is needed to further improve global trade and attract. Global pulse production is estimated at around 100m metric tons annually, a niche compared to the other major grains such as corn (1.2bn metric tons), wheat (0.8bn metric tons), and rice (0.8bn metric tons). Pulses encompass some 20 different kinds of crop varieties. However, the major varieties of pulses are produced and exported by just a few major countries. The major pulse crops are chickpeas, dry peas, and lentils, which account for 40% of total global pulse production (see figure1). While chickpeas are mainly produced in India, the production of dry peas and lentils is more fragmented and mainly takes place in five other countries.
Global pulses trade has increased by 29% since 2015. From 2015 to 2024, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for trade was 3%. In 2024, global pulse trade is expected to reach approximately 21m metric tons (or 20% of global pulse production), according to the International Grains Council. However, these are relatively small volumes when compared to global wheat trade, for example, which stands at 210m metric tons. Dry peas, chickpeas, and lentils account for 68% of the total global trade of pulses (see figure 2).
Figure 2: Global traded volumes, 2024 estimates (20.8m metric tons in total)
Rabobank’s latest World Grains & Oilseeds Map included a map charting the global trade of pulses. As the map illustrates, there are just a few major players in both the export and import markets: Canada is the major exporter for dry peas and lentils; Australia plays a key role in the chickpea and lentils trade.
As of 21 August and until 5 June 2025, Ukrainian honey imported into the EU will take place within the tariff quota from the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) in place since 2016 between the two parties. The automatic reintroduction of this tariff quota is a result of the revised Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) in place since 6 June 2024. The revised ATMs include an emergency brake for seven agricultural products to be automatically triggered if import volumes reach the average yearly imports recorded between 1 July 2021 and 31 December 2023. For honey, this average is 44 417,56 tonnes. Article 4 of Regulation 2024/1392 establishes that once these volumes are reached, the Commission has 14 days to reintroduce the corresponding tariff-rate quota from the DCFTA between the EU and Ukraine. As imports of honey from Ukraine since the beginning of 2024 are already above the volumes set in the DCFTA tariff-rate quota, additional imports will be subject to most-favoured nations (MFN) duties. As of 1 January 2025 and until 5 June 2025, a new tariff-rate quota, corresponding to five twelfth of the threshold set for triggering the emergency brake will be introduced. For honey, the volume of this new quota is set at 18 507,32 tonnes. Imports of Ukrainian honey into the EU have been fairly stable over the last five years, with an average of around 49 000 tonnes per year.
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