- Fertiliser prices are forecast to stay high (global urea still 50–70% above 2019–2020 averages) with no major relief expected from energy or shipping costs.
- The rand is likely to remain volatile or weaker, pushing imported nutrient prices up further.
- Climate models predict another strong chance of La Niña-type conditions in 2026/27, bringing patchy rainfall and higher risk of nutrient leaching or denitrification.
- Carbon border taxes (EU CBAM fully phased in by 2026) and retailer sustainability demands will penalise high-nitrogen footprints.
- Interest rates, although possibly lower, will still make every wasted rand of input unforgiving.
Russia Increases Fertilizers and Agricultural Exports to Africa
- 100% soil-grid or zone sampling (5–10 ha grids now standard on top maize and wheat farms).
- Full variable-rate application on nitrogen, phosphorus and lime using prescription maps.
- Widespread adoption of enhanced-efficiency products (urease/nitrification inhibitors, slow-release coatings, and biologicals that routinely deliver 15–35 kg extra maize per bag of N.
- Precision placement (strip-till, Y-drop, fertigation, foliar top-ups) to keep nutrients in the root zone.
- Routine use of NDVI drone/satellite imagery and tissue testing to spoon-feed crops during the season.
- Aggressive integration of legumes, cover crops and livestock manure to recycle P and K and maintain soil carbon.
