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Corn ethanol production has grown rapidly in Brazil. To date, the industry’s business model has shown itself to be robust and competitive.As a result, investment in additional capacity is expected to continue, but the forecast rapid growth has created concerns about a structural oversupply of ethanol in Brazil in the short to medium term.On the demand side, additional consumption may emerge in several ways: for example, by raising Brazil’s mandatory blend of ethanol in gasoline, through a step change in Brazil’s ethanol consumption resulting from fuel tax reform, and/or due to rising local and global interest in sustainable fuels for aviation and maritime transport. But much of this is a longer-term (2029-2030) prospect, and with the ramp-up in corn ethanol capacity set to be rapid, it may be hard for demand to grow at the same pace in the short to medium term.This threat of imbalance in the ethanol market creates a yellow alert for the sugar industry, in Brazil and beyond.. An oversupply of ethanol would put ethanol prices under pressure, which could feed through to increased sugar output as Brazil´s mills arbitrage margins on the two products taking sugar and ethanol prices to parity with one another. For 2026, expectations that Brazil´s next (2026/27) cane crop will be large may have already priced in such a scenario.Looking further ahead, there are of course many reasons why it may not be repeated in subsequent years despite the growth in ethanol supply in Brazil - for example, weather events could adversely impact global sugar production, or an upturn in oil and gasoline prices could provide support for ethanol prices. Nevertheless, it merits attention – any major change in Brazil´s ethanol market could have repercussions for sugar players around the world.
Smithfield Foods is acquiring Nathan’s Famous in a deal valued at approximately $450 million. The move secures perpetual rights to the iconic brand, whose exclusive license to Smithfield expires in 2032. The acquisition is expected to close in the first half of 2026 and deliver annual cost synergies of about $9 million within two years. Nathan’s Famous, famous for its Coney Island hot dog eating contest, has sold products in supermarkets since 1983. Packaged meats remain Smithfield’s largest revenue segment.Cattle Futures Stabilise After NWS Sell-Off
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures rebounded on Wednesday, with February live cattle up 72.5 cents to $233.10 and March feeders up $1.70 to $359.375. The recovery followed chart-based buying and improved risk appetite after last Friday’s NWS-related sell-off. Cash cattle trade remained light at $233.00 so far this week. Producers in the Plains face concerns over extreme cold, high winds, and a major winter storm causing livestock stress. Traders await Friday’s USDA cattle-on-feed report.China Lifts Poultry Ban on Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul
China has lifted an 18-month ban on chicken imports from Brazil’s southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, imposed in July 2024 after a Newcastle disease case. The decision followed a risk assessment confirming the state is clear. While all China-related restrictions on Brazilian poultry are now removed, export approvals for some individual plants (including BRF and JBS) are still pending reactivation. Brazil exported 247,970 tonnes of chicken to China in 2025, down 56% year-on-year.Tyson Beef Plant Closures Cause Major Layoffs
Tyson Foods is closing its Lexington, Nebraska, plant and reducing Amarillo, Texas, to a single shift, leading to roughly 5,000 layoffs (1,761 in Amarillo alone) starting January 21, 2026. The changes remove about 7,700 head of daily slaughter capacity. UNL estimates Lexington’s closure will have a $3.28 billion annual economic impact in Nebraska. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer urged USDA intervention, calling it price manipulation and warning of higher beef prices. Tyson said production will shift to other facilities to meet demand.New World Screwworm Spreads in Mexico
NWS infestations are expanding in Mexico, affecting livestock and wildlife. A first fatal case in a wild howler monkey in Chiapas signals escalation. Cases cluster near the US border in Tamaulipas, with 11 active cattle cases since late December 2025. Senasica reports 692 active cases across 13 states as of January 7. Texas officials urge daily inspections and immediate reporting. The US suspended Mexican cattle imports multiple times in 2025 due to NWS risks.China Maintains Pork Tariffs on Canada
China’s recent trade reset with Canada reduced canola tariffs and eased EV tensions but left the 25% retaliatory tariff on Canadian pork unchanged. The duty, imposed in 2025, remains in force amid ongoing trade friction.Muyuan Foods Eyes Hong Kong Listing - Muyuan Foods, one of the world’s largest pig producers, is gauging investor interest for a Hong Kong listing that could raise up to $1.5 billion, potentially as early as February 2026.Brazil Floods US Beef Market -Brazil exhausted its 52,000-tonne US duty-free beef quota in the first six days of January 2026. Additional shipments now face a 26.4% tariff. Abiec expects Brazil to export over 400,000 tonnes to the US in 2026, up sharply from 271,000 tonnes in 2025, as displaced China-bound volumes shift. Other suppliers (Australia, Argentina, New Zealand, Uruguay) have barely touched their quotas.
- Butter: Grade AA at $1.3550 (weekly avg $1.3155, down slightly).
- Cheese: Barrels $1.3575, blocks $1.2900 (weekly avgs down).
- Nonfat dry milk: Grade A $1.2550 (weekly avg up 2.75 cents).
- Dry whey: Extra grade $0.7350 (weekly avg up 0.9 cents).
Butter demand remains strong domestically, cheese production steady to stronger, milk output mixed, and dry products mostly firm to higher. International notes include a new European dairy futures contract planned for mid-2026, oversupply pressure in Eastern Europe, flood losses in Queensland (Australia), reduced nitrogen use in New Zealand, and strong milk growth in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay.
The world's largest meat company JBS will double production output in its new chicken processing plant in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah by the end of 2026, Reuters reported, citing a statement on Thursday.
JBS's bet in Saudi Arabia underpins a strategy to increase local food production, while supporting Saudi Arabia's resolve to reduce reliance on food imports, a step also taken by a rival Brazilian food producer.
The plant, which JBS built from the ground and started operations last year, allowed the company to quadruple its overall production capacity in Saudi Arabia, where it makes and sells beef and chicken products under the Seara brand.
Last October, JBS rival MBRF signed an investment deal with Saudi Arabia's Halal Products Development Company (HPDC) to boost their local joint venture, paving the way for a listing of that JV on the Riyadh stock exchange by 2027. MBRF is also building a food factory in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's second-largest city, with capacity to process about 40,000 tons of meat products per year starting in mid-2026.
In an interview, Joao Campos, CEO of JBS's Seara division, told Reuters the company's Seara brand was introduced to Saudi consumers in 2021, and now is a top-three brand by market share in the country.
Another move to grow JBS's presence in Saudi Arabia involves the Arabian Company for Agricultural and Industrial Investment, which will produce products for the Seara brand going forward, Campos said. The executive declined to discuss JBS' production capacity in Saudi Arabia, where it also runs a plant in Dammam that makes beef burgers and other chicken products.
JBS has invested $85 million in Saudi Arabia since 2021. From the company's Jeddah plant, JBS already exports meat products to countries like Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
The outlook for the global poultry industry remains strong for 2026, with growth of around 2.5% expected following three consecutive years of approximately 3% global expansion,
Rabobank said poultry consumption continues to benefit from limited cultural restrictions compared with other proteins, stronger economic conditions in key growth markets such as Asia, Africa and Latin America, and competitive pricing, particularly amid low beef and egg supplies. Consumer trends favouring convenience, variety and health are also supporting demand. The rapid uptake of GLP-1 drugs for weight reduction could further boost chicken consumption, as poultry features in recommended diets.
Poultry industries in most countries have experienced strong market conditions, with a favourable outlook in many parts of Latin America and Southeast Asia. Rabobank noted optimistic production growth in Europe and longer-term expansion in the United States, India and China, underscoring how quickly market conditions can shift when producers expand under bullish conditions. In these markets, slower production growth may be needed to rebalance supply.
Operational excellence is expected to remain a key focus in 2026, particularly as volatility continues to pose risks. Rabobank said the global feed price outlook is positive for poultry producers, with limited upside, though early-stage Northern Hemisphere crop conditions could still change. Geopolitics and avian influenza remain the main drivers of volatility.
The bank warned that the current high-pressure avian influenza situation in the Northern Hemisphere could significantly affect local production and trade if the virus continues to spread during winter. Geopolitical developments, including potential new trade agreements or a possible peace agreement in Ukraine, could also reshape markets by improving international access for rebuilt local industries.
Other factors to watch include labour availability, rapid adoption of smart technologies such as artificial intelligence, and rising industry investment.
Global poultry trade is expected to grow by 1.5% to 2%, below overall market growth, reflecting a continued shift toward food security-driven policies and greater emphasis on local production. Rabobank said Brazil and China are well positioned to gain market share but will continue to face volatility linked to geopolitics and avian influenza. Potential disruptors include US trade agreements and a possible EU-Mercosur deal.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - 19th January 2026 According to the report, bovine and ovine prices were higher compared to the previous year, while pig and poultry prices declined.
The FAO's Food Price Index – a benchmark for global food commodity prices – fell in December, as lower dairy, meat and vegetable oil quotations offset higher prices for cereals and sugar.
Global agrifood systems continue to impose "hidden costs" equal to 10% of global gross domestic product, cautioned David Laborde, director of FAO's Agrifood Economics Division, in an article published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
In a separate commentary for the Forum on Trade, Environment, and the SDGs, Caroline Dommen argued that a new approach to food and agricultural trade was needed.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil announced that Chinese authorities have reopened the market for chicken meat exports from Rio Grande do Sul, following the resolution of a Newcastle disease outbreak reported in the state in July 2024, according to a news release from the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA).
The decision was formalised in a notice published by the General Administration of Customs of China, which cited a health risk analysis recognising the eradication of the outbreak and the effectiveness of measures implemented by Brazil’s animal health system.
China is one of Brazil’s main destinations for chicken meat exports. ABPA said the resumption of shipments from Rio Grande do Sul reinforces Chinese authorities’ confidence in Brazil’s technical rigour, transparency, and responsiveness in managing animal health events.
According to ABPA, the reopening follows extensive technical and diplomatic efforts led by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock under Minister Carlos Fávaro, with direct involvement from Trade and International Relations Secretary Luís Rua and Agricultural Defense Secretary Carlos Goulart, along with their technical teams and the Brazilian Embassy in Beijing.
The process included ongoing dialogue with Chinese authorities, the submission of detailed information, evidence of control and eradication actions, and alignment with international animal health protocols.
ABPA said the reopening marks another step toward the full normalisation of trade flows and reinforces Brazil’s position as a reliable supplier of animal protein on the global market.
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