The gold price has surged to record highs of around $4,800–$4,900 per ounce in late January 2026, with many analysts forecasting it could climb to $5,000 or even $5,400 later this year. This rally is fueled by a powerful mix of strong, ongoing demand and heightened global uncertainty.Geopolitical risks remain a major driver: persistent tensions from US policy shifts, trade threats, regional conflicts (such as in the Black Sea and Middle East), and the broader trend toward de-globalisation have reinforced gold's status as the ultimate safe-haven asset. Investors turn to it during times of instability to protect against volatility and potential disruptions.Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue aggressive gold buying as part of diversifying away from US dollar reserves and shielding against global policy uncertainties.
This structural demand provides steady upward pressure on prices.Expectations of lower US interest rates also play a big role. Anticipated Federal Reserve cuts in 2026 reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making it more attractive compared to bonds or cash. A weaker US dollar—often tied to rate-cut expectations—further boosts gold's appeal.Investor demand from the private sector remains robust. ETFs, institutional funds, and retail buyers are increasing holdings as a hedge against inflation concerns, fears of economic slowdown, or asset bubbles (especially in US stocks). Physical demand stays strong even with occasional short-term profit-taking.Gold continues to serve as a classic inflation hedge and store of value, especially amid worries about long-term inflation, rising fiscal deficits, and currency debasement—even if headline inflation appears contained in many economies.While temporary pullbacks can happen (due to easing geopolitical fears or profit-taking), leading analysts from firms like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan stay bullish. The current rally reflects deep, structural shifts in global finance and investor behaviour rather than short-lived factors.
The World Economic Forum's (WEF) latest Global Risks Report (January 2026) warns that the old global order is rapidly disintegrating, with greater uncertainty, conflict, and self-interest emerging as core features of the new world landscape.The report, based on a survey of 1,300 global leaders and experts, does not make precise predictions but identifies key risks that leaders must manage.
The most prominent short-term risks include geo-economic conflict, polarisation between countries and populations, interstate conflict, inequality (which fuels internal unrest and migration), and disinformation/cybercrime. Extreme weather events, while still serious, have slipped slightly in ranking as geopolitical tensions now pose the greatest immediate threat.In the longer term, climate change, biodiversity loss, resource shortages (especially water), and pollution remain high risks, with direct impacts on agriculture, food security, and population displacement.
For South Africa and the region, the report highlights similar patterns: lack of economic opportunities and job creation, poor state service delivery, rising crime, food shortages (even in countries like Zambia), and inadequate health services as major risks. These factors drive migration toward South Africa and increase pressure on resources.
The implications for agriculture and business are clear: the world is becoming more unpredictable, with heightened risks of recession in the West, asset bubbles (particularly in US stocks), and infrastructure challenges. South Africa can no longer rely on old trade arrangements or global stability. The report emphasises the urgent need for flexibility, innovation, liquidity, and independent planning—especially as state failures (such as in the foot-and-mouth disease crisis) amplify risks.
Banks and financiers are becoming increasingly risk-averse, making credit harder to obtain. The message is unmistakable: businesses and civil society must take control and prepare for a world where self-interest and regional alliances take precedence over global cooperation.
South African farmers should pay close attention to the latest Global Risks Report 2026 from the World Economic Forum (WEF), released in January 2026. While the report does not make exact predictions, it highlights major risks that could directly affect agricultural markets, trade, input costs, and food security in the coming years.
The world is becoming more unpredictable, and relying on old trade patterns or government solutions alone is increasingly risky. Farmers who prepare early—through diversified markets, improved water/energy resilience, financial buffers, and new technology—will be better positioned to manage these emerging challenges.
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