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The vitamin market remains volatile, shaped by production shifts, policy changes, and unpredictable global demand. As we enter Q1 2026, the tone feels different from last year’s relentless softness. Destocking is largely behind us, and with additional risks such as currency fluctuations in a year of appointment of a new Chair of the US Federal Reserve, anti-dumping cases in multiple regions as well as a growing disease burden, Chinese players are prioritizing value over sheer volume or market share. There’s also growing recognition (also reflected in the decreasing number of new capacity announcements) that adding capacity does not create incremental demand, reinforcing the need for smarter strategies. The market is still cautious, but early signs of re-normalization are emerging. For buyers and producers, this is a season of recalibration—where timing and strategy matter more than ever.
This quarter underscores a critical reality: global vitamin production is highly concentrated, with China accounting for nearly 80% overall and even higher shares in key vitamins. U.S. industry groups have raised alarms about food and national security risks tied to this reliance. With only about ten countries producing vitamins—and often just two or three per vitamin—diversification options are limited. This structural vulnerability means pricing trends are only part of the story; supply chain resilience is now a strategic priority.
A market searching for balance
Last year’s oversupply and aggressive discounting—especially from Chinese producers—are no longer the main story. Prices have stabilized and are trending upward in a steady, sustainable way. This signals a healthier market dynamic and growing confidence, setting the stage for a stronger, more resilient outlook ahead.
After a steep 70% drop, Vitamin E has stabilized. North American prices are steady, and Chinese FOB offers have firmed slightly. Buyers remain cautious, avoiding long commitments, but the tone has shifted from panic to watchfulness. Measures in China appear aimed at supporting upward pricing. Premium non-Chinese material remains tight—a reminder that alternatives are scarce.
Vitamin A stays under pressure. Offers are weak, and the return of a major European producer has done little to shift the market. High production costs make deeper cuts unlikely, yet demand is sluggish and competition intense.
Vitamin D3 remains unpredictable. Prices vary widely by producer strategy and regional regulations. Expansion plans in China have been pushed to mid-2026 but buyers are still covering carefully.
Vitamin K3 holds steady at low levels. Chinese origin material maintains a strong presence, but modest growth from non-Chinese producers has triggered competitive responses.
Vitamin C prices remain low and stable despite signals of potential increases from Chinese producers. Oversupply persists even after shutdowns, and government efforts to curb price wars have yet to show impact.
Vitamin B1 prices are increasing again after a brief dip, driven by Chinese hikes and tariff changes. With low-cost alternatives disappearing and supply tight, upward pressure is expected to continue. Spot prices are firming, and while buyers remain cautious on long-term commitments, further increases seem possible.
Other B-vitamins tell a mixed story. Vitamin B2 shows a widening gap between EU and non-EU materials, as new entrants compete aggressively outside Europe, pushing prices lower. Vitamin B3 prices remain low, mainly driven by Chinese and Indian players under pressure to close the year. However, market fundamentals (linked to herbicide markets) suggest materially higher pricing in the medium-to-long term.
After hitting all-time lows, Vitamin B5 prices have begun a slight rebound, reflecting an unsustainable situation despite oversupply. Tariffs are raising landing costs in North America, while new producers compete aggressively for market share, pressuring smaller players.
Vitamin B6 remains steady after a sharp decline, though new entrants could disrupt the balance. Price declines have slowed, while slight softening continues, driven by low demand and aggressive selling. Low prices are curbing expansions, with one Chinese supplier scaling back growth plans.
Biotin (B7) is stable for now, supported by tariffs and limited spot activity as most buyers are covered for the quarter. But new capacity expected later this year could weigh on an already oversupplied market. Folic Acid (B9) prices are holding firm, and low-priced inventory appears to have sold out. Vitamin B12 prices remain stable, with U.S. tariffs contributing to higher regional prices.
Conclusion
The vitamin market in Q1 2026 shows contrasts. Tariffs are reshaping costs, and China’s dominance keeps supply risk high. With production concentrated in a few countries, any disruption could ripple across feed, food, and consumer markets, making resilience a priority.
Destocking is largely behind us, but risks such as currency volatility, trade actions, and rising disease burden continue to shape strategies. Chinese producers are shifting focus to value over volume, and fewer capacity announcements reflect recognition that supply growth doesn’t drive demand.
Pricing has turned a corner, with stabilization and gradual upward movement replacing last year’s aggressive discounting. Uncertainty remains, but market sentiment is notably more constructive than in recent quarters.
For buyers, balancing short-term price tactics with long-term security is critical. Building resilience through trusted partnerships can provide peace of mind in an uncertain market. dsm-firmenich Animal Nutrition & Health plays a role here by offering access to vitamins made in Europe, helping mitigate supply risk and support continuity.
The corn market presented some interesting moves during July, with striking differences between performance based on a monthly or annual comparison. According to Signal Ocean, global corn exports increased 31% m/m and 1% y/y, driven by a huge surge in shipments from Brazil, which more than compensated for a 12% m/m drop in shipments from the U.S. Yet, U.S. corn shipments increased by 8% y/y while Brazilian shipments decreased by 15%.
There were also more interesting developments in terms of shipment destinations. From 2022 to now, 10% of all corn shipments have been shipped to China; however, this figure drops to below 4% if we look at all corn shipments since 2024. In July 2025, only 3% of corn shipments were shipped to China.
China has been importing less corn since 2024 as the nation produces more domestically. The China Agriculture Outlook Committee has forecast corn production in the 2025/26 year to be 3% higher than the 5-year average, while domestic growth slows and drags on demand, both factors weighing on the need for imports. However, the U.S. and Brazil are both set for bumper corn harvests in 2025/26. The USDA August report raises the U.S. corn production forecast to 425.3mt, up 7% from the July forecast, and Brazilian production is set to reach 131mt in the same period, the third highest yield on record. In theory, this should be positive for corn shipments, as ample production should lead to greater availability for export.
However, there are a number of factors that may limit the upside. Brazil is planning to use more corn for the production of ethanol. Historically, around 90% of ethanol production in Brazil came from sugar-cane, but given the lower cost and higher abundance, the use of corn in ethanol production is rising rapidly. Petrobras has recently announced it will be ‘leaning towards corn’ for its foray back into ethanol production. As a result, the increase in corn production will not transfer directly into more corn for export, and exports could fall back if ethanol production becomes a higher value proposition. In this instance, ethanol exports from Brazil would increase while corn exports remain stable or soften.
The U.S., however, already diverts around 40% of corn production into ethanol, and with a higher corn crop this year, there still remains a large surplus of corn to export. The increased supply of corn will likely weigh on corn prices, with the December 2025 futures contract already the lowest it has been in five years. This will make U.S. corn more attractive for importers, and particularly the large Asian or Central American buyer like Japan or Mexico. China has been diverting from U.S. agricultural products in recent years, but if prices are low enough, China would likely take advantage and use it as a way to stocks full and secure. There is a 7.2mt quota on imported corn in China, with imports over that facing a much higher tariff. Corn prices would need to be low enough to make importing still financially viable if the quota were reached.
A CFS spokesperson said that according to the Census and Statistics Department, in the first nine months of this year, Hong Kong imported about 830 tonnes of chilled and frozen poultry meat and about 50,000 poultry eggs from France. It also imported about 350 tonnes of chilled and frozen poultry meat and about 26.14 million poultry eggs from Korea, and about 1,540 tonnes of frozen poultry meat and about 219.73 million poultry eggs from Japan.
"The CFS has contacted the French, Korean and Japanese authorities over the issues and will closely monitor information issued by the WOAH and the relevant authorities on the avian influenza outbreaks. Appropriate action will be taken in response to the development of the situation," the spokesperson said.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 15th December 2025
France deployed its army to accelerate the vaccination of cattle against lumpy skin disease on Thursday, seeking to contain an outbreak that has fuelled a new wave of farmers' protests in southern France, reported Reuters. The army flew in hundreds of thousands of livestock vaccines to southwestern France, and will assist in delivering shots to some 750,000 cows.The spread of lumpy skin disease, a virus affecting cattle, has rekindled discontent among farmers over what they see as a long-term decline in French agriculture due to foreign competition and excessive regulation.As farmers block highways, furious at a policy of slaughtering whole herds when the virus is detected, the government is accelerating vaccinations to quell the crisis, wary of disruption to year-end holidays.President Emmanuel Macron has also responded by doubling down on a promise he will not endorse a European Union trade deal with the Latin American Mercosur bloc unless safeguards to protect Europe's farmers are toughened.France procured 400,000 vaccine doses from the Netherlands to add to its stock of 500,000 vaccines. An A400M military transport plane delivered the extra shots to an army base in the city of Toulouse, army spokesman Colonel Guillaume Verne told reporters.The government is also drafting in several dozen veterinary doctors from the army to help with the vaccination programme in southern areas, including the remote Ariege region where few civilian vets are available.The government aims to complete the vaccination programme within a month.The authorities say the policy of culling herds is necessary to stop the disease spreading across France, which has the largest cattle herd in the European Union.Some farmers' unions say the policy destroys livelihoods, adding to deep-seated grievances that include the planned Mercosur trade deal.French farmers joined European peers at a protest in Brussels on Thursday calling for an EU leaders' summit not to approve the trade deal.
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