South Africa's inflation—particularly the role of fuel prices, food prices, and the Reserve Bank's interest rates—is a widespread frustration among many South Africans. Let's look at the facts in February 2026 and how they align with your points.
Fuel prices remain a major driver of inflation because they affect transport, logistics, and production costs—especially in agriculture and food distribution. Fuel prices change monthly based on international oil prices, the rand-dollar exchange rate, and local levies. In February 2026, prices fell again: petrol (93 and 95) by 65 cents per litre, and diesel by 50–57 cents per litre (depending on the grade), bringing inland petrol below R20 per litre for the first time in years.
This is thanks to lower global oil prices, a stronger rand, and favourable market conditions. Lower fuel prices help farmers (especially with transport and machinery) and can moderate food costs, although the impact is not immediate.You are right that prices often rise quickly when fuel becomes more expensive, but they do not always fall equally when it gets cheaper—a phenomenon known as the "ratchet effect" or "sticky downward prices". Courier and logistics companies adjust rates upward for increases, but do not always reduce them fully when costs drop, partly due to other expenses such as wages, maintenance, and profit margins. This hits agriculture hard, since transport makes up a large portion of input costs and product distribution, contributing to ongoing pressure on food prices.
SUMMARY OF FOOD INFLATION METRICS – November & December 2025 Food inflation appears lower than what many people experience: according to Stats SA, food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation was 4.4% year-on-year in December 2025, while overall CPI inflation reached 3.6% (the peak for 2025, with an average of 3.2% for the year—the lowest in 21 years). The Reserve Bank (SARB) expects inflation to fall to around 3% in 2026, within their target range. However, meat prices (especially beef) are driving the increase due to the severe foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, with meat inflation reaching 12.6% in December 2025—the highest in years. This leads to higher prices in stores, particularly for red meat, even as other food categories such as eggs, potatoes, and rice decline.The SARB's interest rates (repo rate at 6.75% since January 2026, with prime at 10.25%) are criticised as too high, as they raise borrowing costs for households and farmers and restrict economic growth. The bank keeps rates stable to anchor inflation expectations and support the new 3% target, despite a stronger rand, lower oil prices, and moderate inflation.
The reserve bank"destroys" wealth through high debt burdens, but the SARB maintains that it prevents worse inflation spirals. They already began cutting rates in 2025 and may cut further if inflation continues to decline.The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic dramatically worsens the situation: it pushes up meat prices (with expected double-digit increases at least until April 2026), restricts exports (billions of rands lost), and creates supply pressure. It is not directly linked to fuel, but combines with transport costs to make food more expensive.Overall, inflation is currently low and declining, but certain items (meat, transport) feel much more expensive—especially for low-income households where food takes up a large share of the budget. The current fuel price drop offers relief for farmers and consumers, but structural problems such as price stickiness, disease outbreaks, and global factors remain challenges.
The SARB's policy is defensive, but not everyone agrees it strikes the best balance.
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