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Australian agribusinesses remain well positioned amid geopolitical uncertainty. They are expected to navigate 2026 much as they did in 2025. Agri exports should continue their strong performance, while domestic consumer confidence faces renewed pressure due to limited interest‑rate cuts. Livestock product prices are forecast to hold up well, whereas grain prices are likely to stay subdued given abundant global supply and growing inventories.
Major agricultural sectors enter 2026 from a position of strength. The recently harvested grain crop was the second largest on record around 10% above last year's and meat exports, including beef and sheep meat, remain resilient despite geopolitical tensions and tariffs.
The RaboResearch Australia Commodity Price Index is forecast to remain near its strong five‑year average. Agri commodity prices are forecast to diverge in 2026. Prices for grains, oilseeds, pulses, cotton and sugar face continued pressure, while meat and wool are expected to perform well.
Soil moisture remains insufficient across much of the country except northern Australia making timely rainfall critical for grain planting and pasture growth in those drier areas of the country. The Bureau of Meteorology's outlook through May calls for near- to below-normal rains, except for in the north.
Fertiliser and crop protection prices are expected to remain rangebound but elevated. While still above pre‑Covid 19 levels, prices may be contained by tight global grain production margins that slightly reduce demand. However, geopolitical developments continue to pose upside risks.
Energy markets look oversupplied, but diesel costs are expected to remain elevated. Crude oil prices may trade below USD 60/bbl in 2026, although geopolitical risk remains a major wild card. Diesel is expected to stay comparatively expensive both globally and in Australia, which relies heavily on imports.
Interest rate cuts appear less likely, with markets even pricing in possible increases. Sticky inflation remains a challenge and has limited prospects for further RBA rate reductions. RaboResearch still sees the chance of one more rate cut, but many other analysts and the market call for potential rate hikes.
The global economic outlook for 2026 is somewhat subdued, with GDP growth slowing in the US, China and the eurozone compared with last year's. Australia may be an exception, with RaboResearch forecasting a modest improvement to 2.3% in 2026 (up from 1.9% in 2025). The Australian dollar has recently strengthened and is expected to stay stronger in 2026 than last year, supporting import purchasing power but softening export returns in Australian dollar terms.
Geopolitics and shipping remain major areas of concern. With US President Trump not slowing down entering the second year of his second term, further geopolitical surprises are likely. Commodity markets from energy to fertilisers to agri goods may feel the effects. Australia benefitted from strong US demand for beef in 2025 despite tariffs, but with most tariffs now removed, South American competition in the US market may intensify. Meanwhile, China's newly introduced beef import quotas present additional challenges for Australian and Brazilian exporters. Tariffs continue to be used actively by key trading partners, even as some trade agreements progress most notably the EU‑Mercosur deal while others, such as the EU‑Australia Free Trade Agreement, remain distant. Military actions and threats, including Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and new US military signals, add further uncertainty.
The sow herd is likely to decline in 2026 as the industry works to rebalance supply and demand. China aims to cut the sow herd to address oversupply, targeting a reduction of 1m head by leading companies between September 2025 and January 2026. Combined with the reduction by medium-sized players, the Chinese sow herd is projected to decline to 39m head in 2026, down from 40.3m head in September 2025. In the US, sow rebuilding remains slow, given biosecurity challenges. The EU faces rising pressures from ASF outbreaks in wild boars in Spain, from November 2025, and from China’s anti-dumping duties, following only limited sow herd growth in 2025. We expect sufficient supply to keep prices subdued in 1H, with tighter supply in 2H supporting a price rebound. Across the globe, productivity improvement remains a key focus, as producers navigate ongoing challenges.
Trade is expected to remain volatile due to policy changes. Global pork trade showed an uneven performance in 2025, as Brazil recorded 12% export growth, while other key exporting countries, such as the US and Canada, saw single digit declines. Into 2026, major importing countries, including China and Mexico, are adjusting import policies. Mexico will introduce import quota to non-FTA suppliers and launch anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into US pork, while China imposes anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports. Japan and the Philippines, major importers, still ban Spanish pork due to ASF concerns. All these developments suggest trade volatility will continue in 2026.
Herd health remains a challenge in 2026. ASF continues to spread in Vietnam and the Philippines, hindering local production recovery. Although ASF has not affected the domestic herd in Spain, the industry faces increased pressure from stricter biosecurity and disease control measures. PRRS continues to weigh on production in the US and Mexico.
The global chessboard shifted again in 2025. Not through one dramatic move, but through a steady tightening of trade blocs, industrial policies, and geopolitical manoeuvring that reset the rules of play. As we enter 2026, the pieces are still moving, and the pace hasn't slowed. Major economies are making assertive “opening moves” on trade, technology, and security, turning commerce into a tool of leverage more than cooperation. For New Zealand, this isn't distant noise. It is the environment in which our farmers, processors, and exporters must operate in addition to the usual supply and demand fundamentals.
Tempo at the centre: politics, macro settings, and cashflow
In chess, controlling the centre early shapes the entire match. For New Zealand agribusiness in 2026, the “centre” is politics and the money flows tied to it.
New Zealand's election will likely see land, water, and climate become key campaign topics. Offshore, the US heads into a highstakes political cycle of its own, with policy signalling, tariff talk, and bureaucratic muscle likely to keep markets on edge. The specifics will shift but the tempo is set, and volatility is part of the rhythm.
With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) easing cycle largely complete, interest rate cuts are expected to pause, with a possible firming later in the year. This offers shortterm breathing room on debt servicing, but also keeps currency movements frontofmind. The NZD/USD exchange rate is expected to swing between the high0.50s and low0.60s, meaning export receipts may move as much with offshore politics as with economic data. Looking further ahead, the future role of the US dollar is worth watching.
China is settling more commodity purchases in renminbi, and stablecoins are creeping into international commodity trade. Exporters need not react yet, but they do need to stay aware.
Unexpected angles: The knight's move
Energy markets reset lower through late 2025, with Brent crude sliding into the high50s and offering relief for freight and fuel budgets. Howver, as every chess player knows, the knight can strike from unexpected angles. Shipping routes remain vulnerable to disruption, and there is fast upside risk for refined products. Onfarm efficiency upgrades, diversified freight paths, and disciplined cost management remain essential to avoid being “forked” by sudden swings in fuel or transport conditions.
Pressure on the diagonals: The bishop pair
Fertiliser affordability will likely remain challenging this year. Urea was highly volatile through 2025, and hopes of early2026 stability have faded. Geopolitical risks remain the biggest driver, with unrest in Iran posing direct risk given its approximately 10% share of global urea exports. Any escalation would push prices higher, and markets can move quickly. Strong earlyseason buying in the US, alongside sustained Indian demand, is likely to keep wholesale prices supported before easing later in the year. On the other diagonal, grains and oilseeds remain subdued due to large global corn stocks and expanded South American plantings. Lower feed costs may help intensive competitors, but they also highlight the natural cost advantage of New Zealand's pasturebased systems.
The queen's reach: Weather for an island nation
Climate remains the strongest piece on the board, shaping every part of New Zealand's food and fibre sector. A wet La Niña summer delivered plenty of feed, complemented by strong imported feed use in 2025. Now those sodden northern conditions are fading as ENSO drifts toward neutral: too late for parts of the north still recovering from earlier flooding.
The weather remains the queen powerful, farreaching, and hard to predict or control and it will keep testing planning, timing, and feed budgets all year.
Protein markets: Converting position into advantage
Redmeat prices look set to lead the pack in 2026. Beef supplies remain tight, with cattle numbers across key Northern Hemisphere markets sitting at multiyear lows. This global shortage is maintaining historically firm cattle prices, despite periodic fluctuations as herds gradually rebuild. Sheepmeat also enters 2026 on a stronger footing, supported by easing Australian supply and steady demand from the UK, EU, and US. Dairy, however, is more tactical. After late2025 weakness, early2026 trading shows a tentative recovery, but global oversupply amid softer demand could bring some caution to 2026/27 opening milk price forecasts.
The finishing strategy: Staying on the front foot
Chess rewards players who think three moves ahead. For New Zealand agribusiness in 2026, this could mean focusing on the wider forces shaping the board not just daytoday price movements. With the right positioning, New Zealand farmers and exporters can turn a shifting board into tomorrow's opportunity.
- Antimicrobial resistance is a growing global threat to public health, and finding alternatives to antibiotics can help combat increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR).
- A new study found that antimicrobial peptides can combat Salmonella infections in chickens, a major cause of foodborne disease in the U.S.
- This discovery could help improve food safety and protect public health without relying on antibiotic use.
Antimicrobial peptides can control Salmonella infections in chickens and, thus, have the potential to improve food safety and public health, according to a new study. The study was published in Microbiology Spectrum, a journal of the American Society for Microbiology.
“Antimicrobial peptides have the potential to be alternatives to antibiotics and, thereby, could mitigate antibiotic resistance,” said corresponding study author Gireesh Rajashekara, BVSc, Ph.D., Professor and Associate Dean for Research and Advanced Studies, Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. “These peptides not only can kill Salmonella, but also other related bacterial pathogens, such as E. coli, so they could be really valuable in controlling a broad range of pathogens.”
The researchers conducted their study to identify antibiotic alternatives to control Salmonella in chickens. Salmonella is one of the major causes of foodborne illnesses in the U.S., and chickens and chicken products (eggs and meat) have been considered the main vehicles of Salmonella infection in humans.
Antimicrobial peptides, which are short chains of amino acids, have the potential to kill harmful bacteria without inducing resistance to antibiotics. In the new study, researchers identified a set of antimicrobial peptides that could kill many different types of Salmonella in test tubes, then showed they could also kill Salmonella in chickens.
The antibacterial activity of the peptides is likely due to their effect on Salmonella membranes. The researchers said the peptides retain their activity upon exposure to heat and protease treatments, characteristics necessary for the use of antimicrobial products in the poultry industry.
“We identified 2 antimicrobial peptides that kill many different types of Salmonella and also reduce Salmonella load in chickens,” Rajashekara said. “This study could provide a framework for developing and using antimicrobial peptides to control Salmonella in chickens, thereby promoting food safety and public health. Our future work is to test these peptides in chickens on a large scale, optimize their delivery in water and/or feed, understand better how they kill Salmonella and explore more peptides like these for their anti-Salmonella activity.”
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - 26th January 2026 Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures fell on Thursday as the early stages of a massive Brazilian harvest weighed on prices, though a weaker US dollar helped make US exports more competitive globally, according to Reuters.
The US dollar eased broadly on Thursday but remained above recent multi-year lows, with investors still uneasy about US policy even as a mildly hawkish Federal Reserve provided some support. The dollar has been under pressure amid expectations of further interest rate cuts, uncertainty over tariffs and broader policy volatility.
Brazil is in the early stages of harvesting what is expected to be a record soybean crop. Traders anticipate China will increasingly source soybeans from Brazil in the coming months following a recent surge in US purchases. Analysts also reported an uptick in farmer selling in both the United States and South America.
At the close, CBOT March soybeans settled down 2-3/4 cents at $10.72-3/4 per bushel. March soymeal ended $1.80 lower at $296.00 per short ton, while March soyoil fell 0.28 cent to 54.03 cents per pound.
USDA launches New World Screwworm Grand Challenge — On January 21, 2026, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced a major initiative offering up to $100 million through APHIS for innovative projects to boost sterile fly production, improve preparedness/response, and protect U.S. agriculture, animal health, and trade. This aims to stop the northward spread of the destructive parasitic pest from Mexico/Central America, safeguarding food supply and national security amid rising concerns.Smithfield Foods acquires Nathan’s Famous — Smithfield announced on January 21, 2026, it will buy the iconic hot dog brand (famous for Coney Island contests) for about $450 million ($102 per share cash). This secures perpetual rights to the brand (beyond Smithfield's expiring 2032 license), strengthens its top revenue segment (packaged meats), and is expected to deliver ~$9 million in annual cost synergies within two years. Deal closes in first half of 2026.Cattle futures stabilize post-NWS sell-off — Live cattle futures rose modestly (February at $233.10, up 72.5 cents), with feeder cattle up $1.70 to $359.375, driven by chart buying and improved risk appetite after last week's NWS-related dip. Cash trade remains light (~$233), with Plains producers facing extreme cold/winds and southern storm stress. Traders await Friday's USDA cattle-on-feed report.China ends poultry import ban on Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul — After an 18-month suspension due to Newcastle disease (imposed July 2024), China lifted the ban following a risk assessment. This clears the last major hurdle for Brazilian poultry exports to China (though some plant approvals pending), aiding recovery after 2025 exports dropped ~56% to 247,970 tonnes.Tyson Foods beef plant changes cause major layoffs — Starting January 20–21, 2026, Tyson closed its Lexington, Nebraska, plant (laying off 3,212 workers) and reduced Amarillo, Texas, to one shift (1,761 layoffs), totaling nearly 5,000 jobs lost. This removes ~7,700 head/day slaughter capacity. UNL estimates Lexington closure's annual economic hit at $3.28 billion statewide. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer urged USDA intervention, calling it price-manipulation and consolidation risk amid rising beef prices; Tyson cites network rebalancing.New World Screwworm spreads in Mexico, alarms U.S. border — Infestations escalate, with 692 active cases across 13 states (cattle 343, dogs 184, others). A first fatal wildlife case killed an endangered howler monkey in Chiapas. Cases cluster near border (11 in Tamaulipas since Dec 31, 2025), including in newborn calves—suggesting natural fly spread. Texas urges daily wound checks and reporting; U.S. import suspensions continue.China maintains pork tariffs on Canada — Despite recent trade thaw (reduced canola duties, eased EV tensions), China's 25% retaliatory tariff on Canadian pork (imposed 2025) stays in place.Muyuan Foods eyes Hong Kong listing — China's top hog producer gauges interest for a potential Hong Kong IPO raising up to $1.5 billion (possibly February 2026), building on Shenzhen listing.Brazil floods U.S. beef market — Brazil exhausted its reduced 52,000-tonne duty-free quota in just 6 days of January 2026 (faster than prior years), with ~35,000 extra tonnes expected monthly. This reflects strong U.S. demand and redirected supply (from China), though over-quota shipments face 26.4% tariffs; Brazil eyes >400,000 tonnes to U.S. in 2026.Weekly USDA dairy highlights — Butter steady/strong retail demand; cheese production up in East/Central; nonfat dry milk prices rising (up to 7.5 cents West); whey mixed. Fluid milk output varies; cream ample. International: Europe preps new dairy futures; Eastern EU oversupply pressures; Australia floods kill/displace ~30,000 livestock; New Zealand cuts nitrogen fertilizer 20%; South America milk production grows (strong YOY in Argentina/Brazil/Uruguay).This roundup reflects ongoing pressures from pests (screwworm), plant restructurings, trade shifts, and weather impacts across global meat/dairy sectors.
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