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Here’s a concise summary of the main highlights for Australia’s key commodities based on the provided information:
Wheat and Barley: Global wheat markets struggled with dry conditions and geopolitical tensions, while Australian prices hinged on export pace and competition. Recent rains could signal another strong crop, depending on grain sales.
Canola: China’s 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil and meal, combined with US-Canada trade disputes, caused a sharp price drop. Global soybean supply and weather add further uncertainty.
Dairy: Australian milk production is slightly down due to poor seasonal conditions, with autumn rainfall critical for a recovery in feed availability.
Beef: Late March rains in Queensland and northern Australia eased pressure on producers, supporting cattle prices as exports hit record levels.
Sheepmeat: Lamb and mutton prices remain steady despite high production. China shows signs of improvement, but a weakening US market and autumn rains will shape future trends.
Cotton: ICE #2 Cotton futures fluctuated due to bearish economic factors, tariff risks, and drought in Texas.
Wool: Wool prices rose, with the Eastern Market Indicator up 4% and the Western Market Indicator up 3% month-on-month.
Consumer Foods: Household wealth grew in Q4 2024, though slowed by a cooling property market, offering some optimism for consumer spending.
Farm Inputs: Urea prices dropped 12% due to weak Indian demand, with uncertainty tied to Chinese export policies and global demand.
Interest Rate and FX: RaboResearch raised its 12-month AUD/USD forecast to 0.6500, expecting RBA rate cuts in May and August, though near-term currency weakness is possible.
Oil and Freight: Oil prices may dip below USD 70/bbl by year-end due to increased OPEC+ supply, with Q2 averages projected at USD 71/bbl.
This summary captures the key trends and factors influencing Australia’s commodity markets this month.
The Trump administration is talking to all major trading partners throughout the world about ways to bring down President Donald Trump's new tariffs, Reuters reported, citing Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday, adding that they will have to change their rules to allow more imports of US products. Gutnick told CNBC television a day after Trump announced a 10% global baseline tariff and steep reciprocal duties that the discussions had been going on for more than a month. "The key is, will they take our agricultural products? Will they treat us fairly? Can they treat us fairly? And the answer is, over time, that is going to be yes," Lutnick told CNBC television. "American products are going to be better sold elsewhere in the world." Lutnick said that he did not believe that countries would be able to win exemptions from the tariffs, and it will not be "effective for the world to retaliate" against the US But the Trump administration would engage in discussions to find ways to treat US goods more fairly. This includes ways to eliminate trade barriers such as those posed by value-added tax, which Lutnick said acted as subsidies for exports. He added that at least one trade minister offered to allow US vehicles to access similar subsidies, without identifying the country. "I expect most countries to start to really examine their trade policy towards the United States of America, and stop picking on us," Lutnick said. "Stop saying that we can't sell our corn to India. Stop saying that we can't sell our beef anywhere."
Beef: Net sales for 2025 reached 9,300 metric tons (MT), up 16% from the prior week but down 19% from the four-week average. Key buyers included South Korea (3,400 MT), Japan (2,600 MT), and Hong Kong (800 MT), though reductions like Indonesia’s (200 MT) offset gains. Exports hit 14,900 MT, up 6% from the previous week, with top destinations being South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (3,300 MT), and China (2,500 MT). Meanwhile, President Trump’s 10% tariff on Australian goods, including its $2.5 billion annual beef exports to the U.S., is expected to raise U.S. beef prices as Australian farmers plan to pass costs to consumers. China’s anti-dumping probe and lapsed U.S. beef export registrations since March 16, 2025, further complicate the outlook.
Pork: Net sales soared to 53,000 MT for 2025, a marketing-year high, up 66% from the previous week and 88% from the four-week average. Major increases came from Mexico (30,600 MT), China (10,300 MT), and Japan (3,400 MT). Exports totaled 32,900 MT, up 4% from the prior week, led by Mexico (12,200 MT), South Korea (5,200 MT), and Japan (4,100 MT). Separately, a U.S. judge allowed a pork price-fixing lawsuit against major producers like Tyson and JBS to proceed, alleging a conspiracy from 2009-2018 that may have cost consumers $1.4 billion, spotlighting industry practices.
The uptick was driven by a 3.7% rise in vegetable oil prices, with palm, soy, rapeseed, and sunflower oils increasing due to robust import demand. Vegetable oil prices were 23.9% higher than a year ago. In contrast, cereal prices fell 2.6% from February, down 1.1% year-on-year, with wheat declining as crop concerns eased, alongside drops in maize and sorghum, though barley saw a slight rise. Rice prices dropped 1.7% due to weak demand and ample supply. Sugar prices decreased by 1.6%, influenced by weaker global demand and rainfall in southern Brazil, though concerns about production in Brazil and India tempered the fall.
Meat prices edged up 0.9%, boosted by higher pig meat prices in Europe following Germany’s recovery of foot-and-mouth-disease-free status, while poultry prices held steady despite avian influenza outbreaks. Dairy prices remained unchanged. In a separate report, FAO raised its 2024 global cereal production estimate to 2.849 billion metric tons from 2.842 billion and maintained its 2025 wheat production forecast at 795 million tons, similar to 2024 levels.
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