World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update -  3rd Week APRIL 2024

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update - 3rd Week APRIL 2024

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Ukraine is "not fully satisfied" with the latest grain deal agreed by EU countries but can make it work, says the country's agriculture minister.

In a compromise reached on Wednesday evening, member states agreed to harden the free-trade regime with Ukraine by expanding the list of "sensitive products" that can be subject to tariffs, which now includes poultry, eggs, sugar, oats, maize, groats and honey.The deal increases oversight over market trends to allow the use of "remedial measures," a vague term that opens the door for bans on a national level.Altogether, it is estimated the tweaks will make Kyiv lose an additional €86 million on top of the €240 million foreseen under the original proposal.Member states sealed on Wednesday evening a crucial deal to extend free trade with Ukraine until June 2025.But the outcome that emerged from the negotiations represents a hardened position compared to the whatever-it-takes solidarity promised to the war-torn nation, whose agricultural exports bring an essential stream of revenue.The extension of the special regime will feature a larger number of safeguards on products deemed "sensitive": poultry, eggs, sugar, oats, maize, groats and honey, which will be subject to tariffs if their flows exceed the average volumes of the past three years.The deal will also make it easier for member states to apply "remedial measures" in case of market turmoil, a vague term that opens the door for bans on a national basis.

The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) has approved the new Nature’s Pride and Berries Pride climate targets for 2030. These climate targets cover the reduction of emissions throughout the chain. Nature’s Pride and Berries Pride are the fruit and vegetable importers to commit to chain-wide reduction goals in a bid to reinforce their efforts to realise a more sustainable chain.

In recent years, the two companies have taken significant steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, focusing primarily on their own operations and transport. They have worked on increasing packaging sustainability, implementing the transition to green energy sources, valorising food waste for human and animal consumption and incorporating sustainable transport solutions. By applying chain-wide targets, they will collaborate with their growers to reduce agricultural emissions.

The large increase in exports has impacted our competitors, particularly New Zealand, the second-largest lamb and mutton exporting country. New Zealand’s exports have been affected by the increase in Australian supply, leading to a decrease in their market share in China. Additionally, supply chain constraints have hindered exporters’ ability to expand market share in other key markets.

China, being the largest market for sheepmeat by volume, experienced a 24% increase in total imports in 2023, reaching 429,434 tonnes.

Exports from New Zealand to China rose in 2023, but only by 10%. This meant that Kiwi sheepmeat accounted for 50% of Chinese imports in 2023, which is a considerable figure but well down on the 57% market share New Zealand held in 2023.

Instead, nearly all of the increase in Chinese imports came from Australia. Australian sheepmeat to China lifted by 43%, to 197,448 tonnes. This meant that 71% of the increase in China’s imports came from Australia, and Australia’s market share lifted to 46%, the highest figure on record.

The rise in Australian market share has been accompanied by a shift in export pricing. Historically, New Zealand lamb held a $1-$1.30 premium over Australian lamb in the Chinese market. However, this premium has largely disappeared since around 2022, with both products now competitively priced, primarily influenced by fluctuations in the exchange rate.

While New Zealand’s exports to China face pressure from increased in Australian supply, supply chain constraints have made it difficult for New Zealand’s ability to expand market share in other regions.

For example, Australian lamb exports to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) lifted by 51% in 2023, totalling 58,516 tonnes, with chilled exports constituting 68% of that total. This rebound in chilled lamb exports after COVID-related supply chain disruptions has enabled Australian exporters to meet the demands in markets preferring chilled lamb, such as many in the MENA region.

In contrast, New Zealand’s exports of chilled lamb have been declining for several years, persisting through 2023, despite an overall increase in exports. This decline has prevented New Zealand from tapping into markets with a strong preference for chilled products, even during periods of high demand.

The relationship with Belize is a priority, so the technical and scientific institutions of Agriculture will maintain permanent support with their Central American counterparts.

With the objective of expanding the safe introduction to Mexico of cattle for immediate slaughter and terminal fattening, originating from Belize, and thereby strengthening the supply of raw materials for the national industry, the ministries of Agriculture of both countries are working on a mechanism of sanitary control that guarantees the absence of pests and diseases of quarantine importance.

An import protocol is currently in force, through which Mexico receives around five thousand animals per year certified by the Central American health authority, coming only from Orange Walk County.

It is intended that with the update of the mechanism the import protocol considers a greater number of certified producers from Belize, who must demonstrate with clinical tests the absence of bovine tuberculosis (Tb), brucellosis (Br) and pass the health inspection that Mexican veterinary doctors would perform.

In terms of revenue, pork sales totaled US$ 205.7 million in the second month of this year, a result 11.3% higher than the US$ 184.9 million recorded in the same comparative period last year.

In the two months, the accumulated increase is 17.6% in volumes, reaching 197.5 thousand tons this year, against 167.9 thousand tons recorded between January and February 2023. In the same period, accumulated revenue reached US$ 404.8 million, 1.9% higher than the US$397.7 million obtained in the same period of the previous year.

“There is a new configuration in international sales of pork from Brazil. The prevalence of exports to the Chinese market has been reduced by increased demand from other destinations. Thanks to this, we recorded the best month of February in history, approaching 100 thousand tons for the first time, which is an important indication of the behavior that the sector should maintain throughout this year”, analyzes Ricardo Santin, president of ABPA.

China remains the largest importer of pork from Brazil, with 49.5 thousand tons shipped in the first two months of this year (-32% compared to the previous year). Completing the ranking of the five largest destinations are the Philippines, with 25.7 thousand tons (+208.1%), Chile, with 19.1 thousand tons (+41.3%), Hong Kong, with 18.5 thousand tons (+23.5%) and Singapore, with 11.4 thousand tons (+39%).

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update - 2nd Week APRIL 2024

Grain and oilseed prices continued to slide last quarter under pressure of a strengthening US dollar, arrival of the South American harvest and plentiful domestic inventories, according to a new quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.

Corn, grain sorghum, barley and oats all saw major reductions since last year, while soybeans, cotton, spring wheat and durum wheat each experienced increases, the report said.

“But much can happen with weather and markets to shift the balance this spring,” said Tanner Ehmke, lead grain and oilseed economist for CoBank, in the report. “Low water levels on the Mississippi River are already raising concerns of slower grain and oilseed shipments ahead.”

Forecasts for US corn acreage are down 4.9% year-over-year with falling prices and a strong US dollar discouraging planting. Planted acreage for sorghum is down 11% and combined barley and oat acreage is down 14%.

Corn stocks are ample at 8.35 billion bushels, up 13% year-over-year.

Exports have been strong, particularly to Mexico. Sales commitments are up 19% but will face strong competition from Brazil next quarter as the safrinha corn crop comes to market, Ehmke said.

Soybean acreage increased 3% to 86.5 million acres.

“Strong domestic demand has helped soybeans hold a greater price premium to corn with soybean crush record large as renewable diesel drives new demand for soybean oil,” Ehmke said.

Soybeans crushed in January exceeded last year’s pace by 2% as new soybean crush capacity comes online.

Export commitments are down 19% on languishing Chinese demand and growing competition from a record South American crop.

Spring wheat and durum picked up a surprising amount of acreage in the Prospective Plantings report, Ehmke said. Both crops are cheaper to plant than corn.

Total wheat acres are down due to lower winter wheat acres. Winter wheat conditions improved due to moisture linked to El Niño, and yield prospects are also higher.

Overseas, growing conditions among major exporters are not as favorable. Warm and dry conditions prevail in Ukraine and Russia, and excessive wetness plagues Western Europe, Ehmke said.

The ethanol outlook is positive overall for 2024 as facilities make the most of lower corn prices and improved margins, said CoBank’s Jacqui Fatka.

The Environmental Protection Agency will allow eight Midwestern states to use E15 year-round starting in 2025 but will still require waivers this summer.

More E15 and E85 blending allows the ethanol industry to hold line in an otherwise declining gasoline market, Fatka said.

Renewable diesel continues to provide solid demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks, including animal fats and corn oil.

Commodities April 14

Commodities Top Performers

Zinc 5.04% 2,847.65 USD
EEX Strom Phelix Baseload Year Future 3.55% 102.44 EUR
Tin 3.46% 32,950.00 USD
Rice 2.40% 17.27 USD
Soybean Meal 2.35% 343.80 USD

Commodity Prices

PRECIOUS METALS PRICE % +/- UNIT DATE
Gold
2,344.42
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
4/13/2024
Palladium
1,052.50
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
4/12/2024
Platinum
974.50
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
4/12/2024
Silver
27.95
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
4/12/2024
ENERGY PRICE % +/- UNIT DATE
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
1.77
0.23%
0.00
USD per MMBtu
4/12/2024
Ethanol
2.16
0.05%
0.00
per Gallon
4/12/2024
Heating Oil
70.80
0.75%
0.53
USD per 100 Liter
4/12/2024
Coal
121.00
2.28%
2.70
per Ton
4/11/2024
RBOB Gasoline
2.80
0.34%
0.01
per Gallone
4/12/2024
Uranium
89.65
0.61%
0.55
per 250 Pfund U308
4/12/2024
Oil (Brent)
90.15
-0.06%
-0.05
USD per Barrel
4/12/2024
Oil (WTI)
85.47
-0.15%
-0.13
USD per Barrel
4/12/2024
INDUSTRIAL METALS PRICE % +/- UNIT DATE
Aluminium
2,493.80
1.54%
37.80
USD per Ton
4/12/2024
Lead
2,140.00
0.61%
12.90
USD per Ton
4/12/2024
Iron Ore
106.05
1.26%
1.34
per Dry Metric Ton
4/12/2024
Copper
9,333.05
1.01%
93.20
USD per Ton
4/12/2024
Nickel
17,771.00
0.34%
59.50
USD per Ton
4/12/2024
Zinc
2,847.65
5.04%
136.65
USD per Ton
4/12/2024
Tin
32,950.00
3.46%
1,102.50
USD per Ton
4/12/2024
AGRICULTURE PRICE % +/- UNIT DATE
Cotton
0.83
-0.78%
-0.01
USc per lb.
4/12/2024
Oats
3.50
1.16%
0.04
USc per Bushel
4/12/2024
Lumber
541.00
-0.92%
-5.00
per 1.000 board feet
4/12/2024
Coffee
2.22
0.23%
0.01
USc per lb.
4/12/2024
Cocoa
8,575.00
1.18%
100.00
GBP per Ton
4/11/2024
Live Cattle
1.79
-0.61%
-0.01
USD per lb.
4/12/2024
Lean Hog
0.91
-0.52%
0.00
USc per lb.
4/12/2024
Corn
4.35
1.46%
0.06
USc per Bushel
4/12/2024
Feeder Cattle
2.38
-0.57%
-0.01
USc per lb.
4/12/2024
Milk
15.41
0.00%
0.00
USD per cwt.sh.
4/12/2024
Orange Juice
3.69
1.28%
0.05
USc per lb.
4/12/2024
Palm Oil
4,498.00
-0.42%
-19.00
Ringgit per Ton
4/12/2024
Rapeseed
459.00
1.66%
7.50
EUR per Ton
4/12/2024
Rice
17.27
2.40%
0.41
per cwt.
4/12/2024
Soybean Meal
343.80
2.35%
7.90
USD per Ton
4/12/2024
Soybeans
11.72
1.10%
0.13
USc per Bushel
4/12/2024
Soybean Oil
0.46
-0.54%
0.00
USD per lb.
4/12/2024
Wheat
203.25
1.37%
2.75
USc per Ton
4/12/2024
Sugar
0.20
-1.78%
0.00
USc per lb.
4/12/2024