Fanie Brink - Independent Agricultural Economist.

The answer to the question about where salaries and wages come from will in many cases be from government or companies or other business ventures.

Die vernietiging van die ekonomie en die ineenstorting van die staat se finansies is die direkte gevolg van die feit dat die ANC-regering die leerstellinge van sosialisme en kommunisme na 1994 omhels het en kapitalisme totaal verwerp het wat groot tegnologiese en ekonomiese vooruitgang, net soos in die res van die wêreld, vir die land meegebring het. Korrupsie het egter in hierdie proses ‘n baie groot deurslaggewende en vernietigende rol gespeel. 

“Die rentekoersbeleid van die Reserwebank en die ander sentrale banke in die wêreld is die enkele grootste dwaling in die ekonomiese wetenskap waarvoor daar geen bewyse bestaan nie,” sê Fanie Brink, 'n onafhanklike landbou-ekonoom.

Hy sê die aansprake van die Bank dat sy rentekoersbeleid die inflasiekoers binne sy inflasieteikens van 3% to 6% kan beheer is nie waar nie en nog minder korrek. Sy beleid kan nog minder die waarde van die geldeenheid beskerm of ekonomiese groei stimuleer nie.

Brink het verwys na die artikel “Hoër rentekoerse is ‘onvermydelik’” wat gister in die Rapport verskyn het.

Hy sê die “inflasiekoers word deur al die plaaslike en internasionale politieke en ekonomiese faktore bepaal wat ‘n invloed op die vraag en aanbod van goedere en dienste uitoefen, asook die waarde van die geldeenheid, respektiewelik.

Ekonomiese groei word deur die vraag- en aanbodkant van die ekonomie geskep wat elke kwartaal deur Statistiek SA bewys word wat deur die winsmotief van die privaatsektor gedryf word.”

Die inflasiekoers het in Desember 2021 tot 5,9% gestyg wat hoofsaaklik deur die stygings in brandstof- en voedselpryse veroorsaak is, maar het absoluut niks met die plaaslike verbruik daarvan te doen nie aangesien dit suiwer die gevolge van internasionale markfaktore is waarop die rentekoersbeleid van die Bank geen invloed kan uitoefen nie.

Brandstofpryse

Die internasionale prys van ru-olie het verlede jaar gedaal weens die Covid-19-pandemie tot by die punt waar die finansiële posisie van sommige internasionale olieprodusente aansienlik verswak het wat verantwoordelik vir die laer ru-olievoorrade was. Noudat die grootste gevaar van die pandemie afgeneem het, het die internasionale vraag na ru-olie weer skerp gestyg waaraan die lede van die Organisasie vir Petroleumuitvoerlande (OPUL) en Rusland (wat nie lid van die organisasie is nie) nog nie aan kon voldoen het nie.

Die prys van Brent-ruolie het in 2021 met meer as 60% gestyg wat die grootste jaarlikse styging in 12 jaar was wat aangespoor is deur die wêreldwye ekonomiese herstel van die Covid-19-pendemie. Ten spyte van die reisbeperkings, het die vraag na ru-olie relatief stewig gebly, terwyl die aanbod daarvan deur die lede van OPUL verminder is.

Wêreldwye oliepryse sal na verwagting verder styg in 2022, terwyl OPUL en Rusland waarskynlik nog sal hou by hul plan om die voorsiening van ru-olie aan die mark eers net met slegs 400 000 vate per dag in Februarie vanjaar te verhoog.

Die internasionale prysstygings in ru-olie is gevolglik buite beheer van die sentrale banke wat glo dat hulle die wanbalans in die mark kan regstel deur rentekoerse te verhoog wat geensin moontlik is nie, maar wat soos in die verlede weereens plaaslike verbruikers sal straf vir prysstygings waarvoor hulle geensin verantwoordelik is nie.

In Suid-Afrika word brandstofpryse deur die regering beheer en deur ‘n prysmeganisme vasgestel wat die veranderings in die internasionale ru-olieprys, verswakkende wisselkoers wat reeds aansienlik verswak het as gevolg van die vernietigende sosialistiese ideologie van die ANC-regering, asook al die belasting en heffings van die regering op brandstof wat jaarliks verhoog word maar wat niks met die verbruik van brandstof deur verbruikers te doen het nie.

Die eerste vraag is dus wat gevra moet word, is wat kan die Bank enigsins doen aan die wanbalans in die internasionale ru-oliemark en die vasgestelde brandstofprysstruktuur van die regering? Die antwoord is absoluut niks nie!

Voedselpryse

 Internasionale landbouprodusente- en voedselpryse het skerp toegeneem in 2021 as gevolg van internasionale groter vraag na voedsel, maar selfs meer as gevolg van die "ontwrigting van die globale voorsieningsketting” wat in 2022 sal voortduur, volgens die hoof uitvoerende beampte van Cargill, David MacLennan, ‘n landboureus in die VSA, as gevolg van arbeidstekorte wat een van die grootste risiko's geword wat die voedselbedrywe in die gesig staar.

Volgens hom het die internasionale “wêreldvoedselpryse in Oktober verlede jaar tot 'n hoogtepunt vir die afgelope dekade gestyg wat verantwoordelik was vir selfs hoër kruidenierswarerekenings vir huishoudings en moontlike verdere wêreldwye hongersnood.”

Slegte weer het oeste getref, vragkoste het die hoogte ingeskiet en arbeidstekorte het die voedselvoorsieningsketting in die wiele gery. Die energiekrisis het ook 'n dramatiese toename in kunsmiskoste vir boere regoor die wêreld veroorsaak.

Die soeke na ‘groener’ voertuie en vliegtuie, asook biodiesel vir produksie en padvervoer het ook groter mededinging tussen voedsel- en energieproduksie tot gevolg gehad, wat tot  beperkte eetbare olievoorrade aanleiding gegee het. Die pryse vir palmolie, die mees verbruikte plantaardige olie ter wêreld, het die afgelope jaar met sowat 50% gestyg, terwyl sojaboon-olie met 60% gestyg het en Canola-olie naby 'n rekordprysvlak is.

Die voedsel- en brandstofmededinging vir suikeriet, grane en plantaardige olies sal ook, volgens MacLennan, meer intens word as wat dit ooit in die afgelope 15 jaar was. Die dag sal aanbreek wanneer meer landbouprodukte vir skoon energie as voedsel gebruik sal word, so dit sal die landbouprodusente in die wêreld se plig wees om meer innoverend en produktief te raak.”

In Suid-Afrika sal dit ook moet gebeur ten spyte daarvan dat die ANC-regering baie goed op pad is om die landboubedryf, voedselsekerheid en die ekonomie finaal te vernietig.

Amerika gebruik reeds 40% van sy mielie-oes vir die vervaardiging van bio-etanol vir inmenging by petrol wat uit ru-olie vervaardig word, terwyl Brasilië lankal  reeds die grootste bio-etanolvervaardiger uit suikerriet in die wêreld is wat in voertuie gebruik word.

Die tweede vraag is dus wat kan die Bank doen aan hierdie ontwikkelings wat verantwoordelik is vir die hoër internasionale voedselvraag en die hoër voedselpryse?

Die plaaslike pryse van landbouprodukte word in 'n termynmark, die Suid-Afrikaanse Termynmark (SAFEX), verhandel  en word uitsluitlik deur die werking van die markkragte van vraag en aanbod in die mark bepaal. Die pryse van plaaslike produsente is in werklikheid die internasionale afgeleide pryse van landbouprodukte wat op die Amerikaanse termynmark, die Chicago Board of Trade, verhandel word wat ook suiwer deur die werking van die markkragte van vraag en aanbod bepaal word.

Die derde vraag wat gevra moet word, is wat kan die Bank doen aan die toenemende en buitensporige winsmarges op voedsel waarvoor verbruikers nie verantwoordelik is nie en wat geensins verband hou met die vraag na voedsel nie?

In Suid-Afrika word daar van die landboubedryf verwag om “goedkoop” kos vir armmense te produseer, luidens die jongste nuusbrief van Agri SA, terwyl geen boer ter wêreld kos kan produseer teen pryse wat armmense kan bekostig nie. Voedselsekerheid kan slegs volhoubaar wees as die produksie van voedsel winsgewend is. Voedselsekerheid is ook nie die verantwoordelikheid van landbouprodusente nie maar die regering wat die makro- en landbou-ekonomiese beleid van die land bepaal.

Die feit van die saak is dat die “verbruikerspryse” wat gebruik word om die Verbruikersprysindeks te bereken nie die pryse is wat verbruikers bereid is om vir goedere en  dienste te betaal nie, maar die pryse wat deur verskaffers op grond van hulle totale produksie- of vervaardigingskoste plus buitesporige winsmarges vasgestel word.

Die vraag is ook hoekom die internasionale sentrale banke van mening is dat as hulle die verbruikers aan die vraagkant met hoër rentekoerse straf dit ook die probleme wat prysstygings aan die aanbodkant van die ekonomie veroorsaak kan oplos, soos die huidige  laer ru-olieproduksie, ontwrigtings in die wêreldwye voedselvoorsieningsketting of natuurrampe wat ernstige droogtes en vloede veroorsaak? Hoe is dit mootlik dat hulle van mening is dat hoër rentekoerse ook hierdie probleme kan oplos as hulle absoluut geen beheer oor die aanbodgedrewe inflasie en geadministreerde pryse van die regering het nie.

Jongste inflasietendense

Die inflasiekoers in die VSA het in Desember tot 6,8% gestyg wat die hoogste vlak sedert 1982 en die sesde maand in 'n ry van prysstygings was. Petrolpryse het in November 2021 met 58,1% gestyg – die grootste styging oor 12 maande sedert 1980. Binne die voedselindeks het die pryse van kruidenierswinkels vir die derde agtereenvolgende maand gestyg.

Die inflasiekoers in Suid-Afrika het in Desember 2021 tot 5,9% opgeskiet, wat die hoogste koers in byna 5 jaar is. Die grootste bydraende faktor tot die hoër inflasiekoers was die brandstofprys wat sedert ’n jaar gelede met 34,5% gestyg het.”

Die jongste stygings in die inflasiekoerse in die VSA en Suid-Afrika is die gevolg van baie ernstige veranderings in die vraag en aanbod na veral ru-olie en voedsel wat baie duidelik buite die bereik van die rentekoersbeleid van die Reserwebank en die Federale Reserweraad in die VSA is wat weereens bewys dat daar nie ander kragte in die ekonomie bestaan wat sterker as die markragte van vraag en aanbod is nie.

Vooruitsigte vir ru-olie

Ru-olie het tot dusver in Januarie 2022 sy styging voortgesit tot die hoogste vlak in sewe jaar namate geopolitieke spanning in die Midde-Ooste ontstaan het. Jemen se Houthi-vegters het beweer dat hulle hommeltuigaanval op die Verenigde Arabiese Emirate - die derde grootste OPUL-produsent - geloods het wat 'n ontploffing en brand in die buitewyke van die hoofstad Abu Dhabi veroorsaak het en ru-oliepryse tot die hoogste vlakke sedert Oktober laat styg het.

Die krimpende globale olie-voorraad is ook ‘n beperkende faktor waarom die Goldman Sachs Groep sy voorspellings vir die ru-olie tot $100 per vat in die derde kwartaal vanjaar verhoog het.

Elektrisiteitstariewe

Die volgende oorsaak vir ‘n verdere groot styging in die inflasiekoers sal deur die verwagte buitensporige stygings in elektrisiteitstariewe veroorsaak word wat ook deur die regering vasgestel word en die Reserwebank weereens sal aanspoor om verbruikers verder te straf vir prysstygings waarvoor hulle nie verantwoordelik is nie en daarom ook nie die oorsaak vir hoër elektristeitstariewe is nie. Die hoër oliepryse het reeds ook die pryse van gas vir verhittingsdoeleindes aansienlik verhoog.

 Inflasieteikens

Aangesien brandstof- en voedselpryse vir die groot stygings in die inflasiekoers verantwoordelik is, word dit gewoonlik uitgesluit van die Verbruikersprysindeks om 'n "Kerninflasie-indeks" te bereken wat die Reserwebank en ekonomiese kommentators telkens as 'n terugvalposisie gebruik as die inflasiekoers te naby aan die boonste inflasieteiken beweeg wat totaal misleidend is en daarom afgeskaf behoort te word.

Die inflasieteikens moet in elk geval geskrap word en rentekoerse moet op grond van die vraag en aanbod van geld en kapitaal in 'n termynmark bepaal word. Presies hoe verskeie landbouprodukte, soos mielies, koring, sojabone, sonneblomme, rooivleis en wol verhandel word op die Suid-Afrikaanse Termynmark (SAFEX – South African Futures Exchange), wat die Landbou-afdeling van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs (JSE) is wat ontwikkel en geïmplementeer is op dieselfde basis as die stelsel wat deur die “Chicago Board of Trade” in Amerika gebruik word. ’n Termynmark vir geld en kapitaal sal die mees akkurate en billikste manier wees om rentekoersvlakke te bepaal of te ontdek sonder die inmenging van die Reserwebank!

Eenvoudige statistiese ontledings het bewys dat die veranderings in rentekoerse geensins ‘n verklaring kan bied vir die veranderings in inflasiekoers, die waarde van die geldeenheid of ekonomies groei nie. Die veranderings in rentekoerse volg in werklikheid die veranderings in die inflasiekoers en word nie daardeur bepaal nie! Die Reserwebank is reeds van plan om  sy rentekoerse vier keer vanjaar te verhoog met 25 basispunte in elke kwartaal vanjaar omdat hy hom blindstaar teen ‘n rekenaarmodel wat nooit al die politieke en ekonomiese veranderlikes wat die vraag en aanbod in die ekonomie beïnvloed in ag kan neem nie. Die Bank het in elk geval ook nie ‘n mandaat om die inflasiekoers te probeer beheer nie, maar wel ‘n mandaat om ingevolge artikel 224(1) van die Grondwet die wisselkoers (waarde van die geldeenheid) te beskerm.

“Dit is daarom onaanvaarbaar dat die Reserwebank, die meeste ekonomiese kommentators  en die media steeds daaraan vasklou dat die Bank se rentekoersbeleid die inflasiekoers kan beheer, die waarde van die geldeenheid kan beskerm en ekonomiese groei kan stimuleer waarvoor daar geen bewyse bestaan. Verbruikers kan geensins alleen vir prysstygings verantwoordelik gehou word wat deur die werking van die internasionale en plaaslike markkragte van vraag en aanbod en die buitensporige inmenging van die regering in die ekonomie veroorsaak word nie,” sê Brink.

Fanie Brink, Onafhanklike Landbou-ekonoom

“Die Mediumtermyn Begrotingsraamwerk (MTBR) van die minister van Finansies, Tito Mboweni, wat hy vandag aan die Parlement voorgelê het is ‘n baie duidelike bewys dat die ANC se beleid van die sosialistiese en kommunistiese herverdeling van die bates, ekonomiese groei potensiaal en welvaart die ekonomie en land steeds verder sal vernietig,” sê Fanie Brink, ‘n onafhanklike landbou-ekonoom.

Die algemene aanvaarding dat die Reserwebank en al die ander sentrale banke in die wêreld se rentekoersbeleid inflasie kan beheer, die wisselkoers kan beskerm en ekonomiese groei kan bevorder deur pryse te stabiliseer en die wisselkoers te beskerm, is die grootste enkele dwaling in die totale ekonomiese wetenskap” sê Fanie Brink, ‘n onafhanklike landbou-ekonoom. 

"The general assumption that the interest rate policy of the Reserve Bank and all the other central banks in the world can contain inflation, protect the exchange rate and promote economic growth by stabilising prices is the biggest single delusion in total economic science," says Fanie Brink, an independent agricultural economist.

"The interest rate policy of the Reserve Bank and the other central banks in the world is the single biggest delusion in economic science for which there is no evidence," says Fanie Brink, an independent agricultural economist.

 He says the Bank's claims that its interest rate policy can control the inflation rate within its inflation targets of 3% to 6% are not true or correct. Its policy can also not protect the value of the currency or stimulate economic growth.

Brink referred to the article “Hoër rentekoerse is ‘onvermydelik’” ("Higher interest rates are 'inevitable'") which appeared in the “Rapport” yesterday.

He says the “inflation rate is determined by all the local and international political and economic factors that have an influence on the demand and supply of goods and services, as well as the value of the currency, respectively.

Economic growth is created by the supply and demand side of the economy, which is proven by Statistics SA every quarter, which is driven by the profit motive of the private sector.”

The inflation rate rose to 5,9% in December 2021, mainly due to the increases in fuel and food prices but has absolutely nothing to do with its local consumption as it is purely the results of international market factors on which the interest rate policy of the Bank have absolutely no influence.

Fuel prices

The international price of crude oil fell last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic to the point where the financial position of some international oil producers weakened significantly that were responsible for the lower crude oil supplies. Now that the greatest danger of the pandemic has subsided, international demand for crude oil has risen sharply again, which the members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia (which is not a member of the organisation) have not yet been able to meet.

The international price of Brent crude oil rose by more than 60% in 2021, which was the largest annual increase in 12 years spurred by the global economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. Despite the travel restrictions, the demand for crude oil remained relatively solid, while the supply by the members of OPUL and Russia was reduced.

Global oil prices are expected to rise further in 2022, while OPEC and Russia are likely to stick to their plan to increase crude oil supply to the market by only 400 000 barrels per day in February this year.

The international price increases in crude oil are consequently out of control of the central banks who believe that they can correct the imbalance in the market by raising interest rates which is by no means possible, but which as in the past will once again punish local consumers for price increases for which they are in no way responsible for.

 In South Africa, fuel prices are controlled by the government and determined by a price mechanism on the basis of changes in the international crude oil price, weakening exchange rate which has already weakened significantly due to the destructive socialist ideology of the ANC government, as well as all the taxes and levies of the government on fuel that are increased annually but which have nothing to do with the consumption of fuel by consumers.

 The first question, then, is what can the Bank do about the imbalance in the international crude oil market and the government's fixed fuel price structure? The answer is absolutely nothing!

 Food prices

 International agricultural producer and food prices increased sharply in 2021 due to international increased demand for food, but even more so due to the "disruption of the global supply chain" that will continue in 2022, according to Cargill CEO, David MacLennan, an agricultural giant in the United States of America (USA), due to labour shortages that have become one of the biggest risks facing the food industry.¹⁾

 According to MacLennan, “international food prices rose in October last year to a peak for the past decade which was responsible for even higher grocery bills for households and possible further global famine."

Bad weather hit crops, freight costs skyrocketed and labour shortages hampered the food supply chain. The energy crisis has also caused a dramatic increase in fertilizer costs for farmers around the world.

The search for 'greener' vehicles and aircraft, as well as biodiesel for production and road transport, led to greater competition between food and energy production, which led to limited edible oil supplies. Prices for palm oil, the most consumed vegetable oil in the world, have risen by about 50% in the past year, while soybean oil has risen by 60% and canola oil is near a record price level.

The food and fuel competition for sugarcane, grains and vegetable oils will also, according to MacLennan, become more intense than it has ever been in the past 15 years. The day will come when more agricultural products for clean energy will be used as food, so it will be the duty of the agricultural producers in the world to become more innovative and productive.”

In South Africa this will also have to happen despite the fact that the ANC government is well on its way to finally destroying the agricultural industry, food security and the economy.

The United States of America (USA) already uses 40% of its maize crop to produce bio-ethanol for blending with petroleum produced from crude oil, while Brazil has long been the largest bio-ethanol producer from sugarcane in the world used in vehicles.

The second question is therefore what can the Bank do about these developments that are responsible for the higher international food demand and the higher food prices?

The local prices of agricultural products are traded in a futures market, the South African Futures Market (SAFEX), and are determined solely by the operation of the market forces of supply and demand in the market. The prices of local producers are in fact the international derivative prices of agricultural products traded on the USA futures market, the Chicago Board of Trade, which is also determined purely by the operation of the market forces of supply and demand.

 The third question that needs to be asked is what can the Bank do about the increasing and excessive profit margins on food for which consumers are not responsible and which are in no way related to the demand for food?

In South Africa, the agricultural industry is expected to produce “cheap” food for the poor, according to the latest newsletter from Agri SA, while no farmer in the world can produce food at prices that the poor can afford. Food security can only be sustainable if food production is profitable. Food security is also not the responsibility of agricultural producers but the government that determines the macro and agricultural economic policy of the country.

The fact of the matter is that the “consumer prices” used to calculate the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are not the prices consumers are willing to pay for goods and services, but the prices charged by suppliers based on their total production or manufacturing costs plus excessive profit margins are determined.

The question is also why the international central banks believe that punishing consumers on the demand side with higher interest rates can also solve the problems caused by price increases on the supply side of the economy, such as the current lower crude oil production, disruptions in the global food supply chain or natural disasters that cause severe droughts and floods? How is it possible that they believe that higher interest rates can also solve these problems if they have absolutely no control over the supply-driven inflation²⁾ and administered prices of the government.

The interest costs that consumers pay which the Bank targets with its increases in interest rates is not more than 2% of their total consumption expenditure and the weight is so low that it does not even appear on the list of consumers items that Statistics SA use to compile the CPI, and it is therefore insignificant and negligibly small to make an impact on the inflation rate.

Latest inflation trends

The US inflation rate rose to 6,8% in December, the highest level since 1982 and the sixth month in a row of price increases. Petrol prices rose by 58,1% in November 2021 - the largest increase over 12 months since 1980. Within the food index, the prices of grocery stores rose for the third consecutive month.

The inflation rate in South Africa shot up to 5,9% in December 2021, which is the highest rate in almost 5 years. The biggest contributing factor to the higher inflation rate was the fuel price, which has risen by 34,5% since a year ago. "

The latest increases in inflation rates in the USA and South Africa are the results of very serious changes in the supply and demand of especially crude oil and food, which are very clearly outside the reach of the interest rate policy of the Reserve Bank and the Federal Reserve in the USA that have proven once again that there are no other forces in the economy that are stronger than the market forces of supply and demand.

Prospects for crude oil

International crude oil has so far continued its rise in January 2022 to the highest level in seven years as geopolitical tensions arose in the Middle East. Yemen's Houthi fighters have claimed to have launched a drone strike on the United Arab Emirates - the third largest OPEC producer - causing an explosion and fire on the outskirts of the capital Abu Dhabi and raising crude oil prices to the highest levels since October last year.

 The shrinking global oil stock is also a limiting factor as to why the Goldman Sachs Group raised its crude oil forecasts to $100 a barrel in the third quarter of this year.

 Electricity rates

The next cause for a further large increase in the inflation rate in south Africa will be caused by the expected excessive increases in electricity tariffs which are also set by the government and will once again encourage the Reserve Bank to punish consumers further for price increases for which they are neither responsible for and therefore not the cause for higher electricity tariffs. The higher oil prices have also significantly increased the prices of gas for heating purposes.

Inflation targets

As fuel and food prices are responsible for the large increases in the inflation rate, it is usually excluded from the Consumer Price Index to calculate a "Core Inflation Index" which the Reserve Bank and economic commentators often use as a fallback position if the inflation rate is too close to the upper inflation target moves which is totally misleading and should therefore be abolished.

The inflation targets should be scrapped anyway and interest rates should be determined based on the supply and demand of money and capital in a futures market. Exactly how various agricultural products, such as maize, wheat, soybeans, sunflowers, red meat and wool are traded on the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX), which is the Agricultural division of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) that was implemented on the same basis as the system used by the Chicago Board of Trade in USA. A futures market for money and capital will be the most accurate and fair way to determine or discover interest rate levels without the intervention of the Reserve Bank!

Simple statistical analyses have shown that the changes in interest rates can in no way provide an explanation for the changes in inflation rate, the value of the currency or economic growth. The changes in interest rates are actually follow the changes in the inflation rate and do not determined it! The Reserve Bank is already planning to raise its interest rates four times by 25 basis points in each quarter this year because it is blinded by a computer model that can never take all the political and economic variables that affect the supply and demand in the economy into account. In any case, the Bank does not have a mandate to try to control the inflation rate but a mandate to protect the exchange rate (value of the currency) in terms of section 224(1) of the Constitution.

 "It is therefore unacceptable that the Reserve Bank, most economic commentators and the media continue to cling to the Bank's interest rate policy that cannot control the inflation rate, protect the value of the currency and stimulate economic growth for which there is no evidence to substantiate these claims. Consumers can by no means be longer held solely responsible for price increases caused by the operation of the international and local market forces of supply and demand and the excessive interference of the government in the economy," says Brink.

Fanie Brink, Independent Agricultural Economist

¹⁾ Cargill CEO Says Global Food Prices to Stay High on Labor Crunch

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-17/cargill-ceo-says-global-food-prices-to-stay-high-on-labor-crunch?sref=q8seIhDd

²⁾  Reserve Bank has no control over supply-driven inflation

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/columnists/2022-01-16-isaah-mhlanga-reserve-bank-has-no-control-over-supply-driven-inflation/

Werksgeleenthede in die landbou sal oor die volgende dekade dramaties daal weens die abnormale uitvloei van arbeid wat toegeskryf kan word aan die uiterste ekonomiese druk waaronder die landboubedryf gebuk gaan, die nuwe ongekende tegnologiese ontwikkeling wat voortspruit uit die vierde nywerheidsrewolusie in die wêreld en die onteiening van grond sonder vergoeding,” sê Fanie Brink, ‘n onafhanklike landbou-ekonoom.

"Employment opportunities in agriculture will dramatically decrease over the next decade due to the abnormal outflow of labour that can be attributed to the extreme economic pressure on the agricultural industry, the new unprecedented technological development deriving from the fourth industrial revolution in the world and the expropriation of land without compensation," says Fanie Brink, an independent agricultural economist.

"An important aspect of the ANC government's land expropriation policy without compensation is the question why the amendment of Section 25 of the Constitution is so important because it already makes it possible, according to virtually all legal opinions and other opinions, already allow expropriation without compensation. 

“‘n Belangrike aspek van die ANC-regering se beleid oor grondonteienng sonder vergoeding is die vraag waarom die wysiging van Seksie 25 van die Grondwet so belangrik is as dit volgens feitlik alle regsmenings en ander opinies alreeds grondonteiening sonder vergoeding moontlik maak.

“Die rentekoersbeleid van die Reserwebank en al die ander sentrale banke in die wêreld is die grootse enkele dwaling in die totale ekonomiese wetenskap omdat daar niks verder van die waarheid verwyder kan wees as die aansprake dat monetêre beleid die inflasiekoers kan beheer, die wisselkoers kan beskerm en ekonomiese groei kan bevorder nie,” sê Fanie Brink, ‘n onafhanklike landbou-ekonoom.

The interest rate policy of the Reserve Bank and all other central banks in the world is the greatest single delusion in the total economic science because nothing else can be further from the truth as the claims that monetary policy can control the inflation rate, can protect the exchange rate and can promote economic growth," says Fanie Brink, an independent agricultural economist.

Dr Roelof Botha, the economic advisor of the Optimum Group is right about monetary policy for all the wrong reasons,” says independent economist Fanie Brink.

"The country's political and economic realities hold various serious threats and a very uncertain outlook for 2019 as far as the ANC government's political and economic policy is concerned.

Die land se politieke en ekonomiese realiteite hou verskeie ernstige bedreigings en baie groot onsekere vooruitsigte vir 2019 in ten opsigte van die ANC-regering se politieke en ekonomiese beleid.

”There can be nothing further away from the truth than the claims of the Reserve Bank and it seems all the professors in economics and economists in the country and even in the world, according to Fanie Brink, an independent agricultural economist.

SUBMISSION TO THE HONOURABLE MINISTER OF FINANCE -

South Africa - FEBRUARY 2019

The Honourable Minister of Finance, Mr Tito Mboweni, has called on South Africans to send him and his team ideas on how South Africa can boost its economic growth. The Treasury said in a statement on 24 January 2019 that the Minister would like to hear from South Africans about how the country can achieve faster and more equitable growth, and what the government can do differently to grow the economy.1)
It is a privilege to have this opportunity and a pleasure to present this submission to the Minister of Finance.

Fanie Brink
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An independent agricultural economist, advisor and mentor with more than 40 years of experience in the agricultural industry in South Africa. He was for almost 22 years a Senior Agricultural Economist with Agri SA and Deputy General Manager: Research and Development with Grain South Africa. He was the most of his career directly involved in the profitability and sustainability of grain and oilseeds production, food security and the
development of a biofuels strategy for the government. He is also a member of a group of 30 economists in the country who evaluate and predict the state of the economy in South Africa on a monthly basis for the Business School of the University of Stellenbosch. He obtained a BSc-Agric degree from the University of the Free State in 1974 and a MSc- Agric degree from the University of Pretoria in 1978.

“Die enigste manier om die kragvoorsiening van Eskom te herstel en oor die lantermyn te verbeter is die herstel van die winsgewendheid en volhoubaarheid van die verskillende prosesse hoe elektrisiteit gegenereer word,” sê Fanie Brink, onafhanklike landbou-ekonoom.