World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 03 November 2025

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Food inflation continues to outpace overall inflation, and restaurants are feeling the pressure, with nine straight quarters of declining traffic. Some chains and menus are bucking the trend with growth in both visits and spending.US retail beef prices continue to rise, with the USDA's all-fresh beef price reaching a record USD 9.18/lb in August. US cattle slaughter from January through September is down 1.5m head, a 7% drop compared to the same period last year.Pork prices remain well ahead of year-ago levels and the five-year average, with cutout values of USD 109/cwt currently averaging 15% above last year.Chicken production continues to outpace year-ago levels, and chicken prices are down sharply in recent weeks, with boneless breast meat prices now 27% below year-ago levels.

Ukraine’s appetite for chicken meat continues to grow, with consumption forecast to rise slightly in 2026 as more consumers switch from other animal proteins. According to the latest USDA-FAS outlook, the trend is being driven by both price advantages and consumer perceptions of poultry as a healthier option.Despite the challenges of war and ongoing population outflows, domestic chicken meat consumption continued to expand in 2024 and is expected to do so again in 2025. Chicken remains Ukraine’s most affordable source of protein, accessible to both higher-income consumers and internally displaced people who rely on social assistance or humanitarian support.The report notes that macroeconomic stability, modest currency devaluation, and rising household incomes have all supported this growth. The National Bank of Ukraine reported that per capita incomes in 2024 exceeded pre-war levels, even with overall inflation at 12% and food inflation at 13.2%.Although income growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2025 and 2026, steady demand and affordability are likely to sustain poultry consumption gains. With consumers continuing to prioritise cost and nutrition, chicken is set to remain Ukraine’s dominant protein choice well into 2026.

Folding carton is a boxboard grade primarily used in food and consumer goods packaging. The US is a key strategic destination for European folding carton exports, especially following the loss of Russian exports due to sanctions. Over the past decade, European folding carton exports to the US have grown by roughly 35%, accounting for a quarter of Europe's total folding carton exports in 2024.In recent years, structural disadvantages - stemming from decarbonization initiatives and investments in energy efficiency - have increasingly strained the cost-competitiveness of European folding carton producers. Simultaneously, elevated pulpwood prices and currency fluctuations have further weakened their position in the US market. The introduction of US import tariffs has compounded these challenges, particularly affecting Nordic producers who export virgin-based folding boxboard to the US. Their remaining cost advantage is being eroded, potentially resulting in some volumes staying in Europe. This shift is adding further pressure to an already depressed pricing environment, where persistent supply-demand imbalances continue to limit price recovery and squeeze margins for all producers.Beyond these direct effects for exporters, the broader industry is feeling the strain. Tariff threats have eroded transatlantic business confidence, leaving the US export market outlook uncertain for European players. Tariffs have disrupted the anticipated recovery in European domestic demand, while capacity adjustments and site closures are becoming more frequent, and investment confidence is faltering. This is placing sustained downward pressure on the sector. Meanwhile, competitive pressure from Asian producers - especially China - is intensifying, adding to the challenges.For European folding carton producers, this means rethinking strategies to operate effectively in a volatile and rapidly evolving environment - where flexibility, resilience, and strategic foresight are essential to navigating ongoing disruptions.

During a contentious Senate Finance Committee hearing on Oct. 29, President Trump’s nominee for Chief Agricultural Negotiator, Dr. Julie Callahan, defended the administration’s reciprocal-trade strategy amid GOP concerns over Argentine beef imports and China market access. Argentina Beef TRQ Expansion: Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and John Barrasso (R-WY) warned against an 80,000-ton quota increase, fearing it would undercut U.S. ranchers with lower-standard imports. Callahan called talks “ongoing,” emphasizing goals to reverse the U.S. ag trade deficit and secure global market access for American cattlemen. She also pledged support for the struggling U.S. sheep industry, citing meetings with Utah producers to counter import competition.
China Beef Exports: Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) highlighted a post-March collapse in U.S. shipments, with Australia and Brazil filling the void. Callahan labeled China’s actions “retaliation” and committed, if confirmed, to reopening the market via weekly compliance monitoring, as in Trump’s first term.
Broader Priorities: Callahan vowed to eliminate unjustified meat restrictions, push science-based protocols, and expand access in Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia for beef, pork, and poultry. Republicans backed her philosophy but sought assurances on domestic price protection.

Bipartisan Backlash to Argentina Beef Plan & AidThe proposed quadrupling of Argentina’s beef quota (to 80,000 MT lean trimmings) and $20B U.S. aid package face rare GOP-Democratic opposition: GOP Critics: Sens. Daines and Mike Rounds (R-SD), Reps. Mark Alford (R-MO) and Jason Smith (R-MO) urged Trump to scrap it, arguing it contradicts “America First,” exacerbates herd shortages from drought/feed costs, and won’t meaningfully cut grocery prices. Daines relayed Beef Caucus concerns to VP JD Vance. Trump’s Tokyo remarks (“get beef prices down”) fueled tensions.
Democrats: Led by Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), 19 senators (incl. Chuck Schumer) pressed Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent to reconsider aid, citing threats to U.S. farmers amid China’s zero grain sales YTD (vs. 15.4M MT typical).
Industry: National Cattlemen’s Beef Assoc. CEO Colin Woodall slammed it as harmful to producers without price relief. USDA Sec. Brooke Rollins defended easing imports to combat inflation and packer concentration. Analysts note the quota is symbolic (~4% of imports, 0.5% of consumption), with feeder futures down 15% on broader stresses (policy uncertainty, Mexican border reopening talks).

Outlook: Final details imminent; Congress eyes letters/hearings/legislation (e.g., COOL reforms). Watch Nov. cash auctions for stabilization clues; persistent uncertainty risks further futures downside.Mexico-U.S. Cattle Border TalksMexican Ag Minister Julio Berdegue reported progress with USDA Sec. Rollins on reopening the border to live cattle exports, focusing on New World Screwworm (NWS) control. No date set, but Mexico will test modular plants for 20M extra sterile flies/week and activate the Chiapas facility (100M/week capacity). Berdegue: “We’ll only lift restrictions once we have the additional 100M flies.”Pork Sector DevelopmentsFDA ‘Ultra-Processed’ Label: National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) urged a nutrition-focused framework over NOVA processing-based classification, warning broad labels could stigmatize nutrient-rich pork. Proposed “discretionary foods” term; align with Standards of Identity.
Malaysia/Cambodia Market Wins: Trump-signed deals eliminate barriers, making all FSIS-listed U.S. facilities eligible for pork exports. Malaysia: $24.5M in 2024 (+1,700% in 5 years); full regionalization in 15 months. NPPC hailed it as vital for 25% exported production, 140K jobs, and $66/hog value. Credits USTR’s Greer and Callahan.

FDA Emergency Use for NWS TreatmentFDA authorized Elanco’s Credelio (lotilaner) chewables for NWS in dogs/puppies — first-ever emergency nod for the parasite, which causes severe wounds/death. Originally for fleas/ticks (2018 approval), it’s deemed effective with benefits outweighing risks. Commissioner Marty Makary: Proactive stance on threats.USDA Weekly Dairy Report (Oct. 24 Close)CME Cash Markets: Butter (AA): $1.6025 close; weekly avg. $1.5740 (-$0.0565). Demand outpaces production; strong churns, ample cream.
Cheese: Barrels $1.7700 ($1.7655 avg. +$0.0255); Blocks $1.7775 ($1.7605 +$0.0350). Steady output; firm exports, moderate retail.
NFDM (A): $1.1600 ($1.1260 +$0.0065). Declines in low/medium heat; tighter East/Central stocks.
Dry Whey: $0.6900 ($0.6770 +$0.0390). Unchanged/mixed regionally.

Fluid Milk: East/West output rising (cooler temps); Central steady. Class I/II strong; Class III varies (East robust); spot light. Butter up seasonally.
Dry Products: NDM/high-heat down; dry whey/lactose mixed; casein steady.
Retail: Conventional ads -4%; organic -9%. Cheese tops conventional; milk leads organic. Conventional eggnog emerging; organic premium $4.20/gallon milk. Oct. averages: Conventional whole $4.40/gal; reduced-fat $4.31; organic half-gal $5.35 each. July mailbox milk $20.14/cwt (-$0.41 MoM). Nov. Advanced Prices: Class I base $16.75/cwt (-$1.29); ESL adj. $0.01. Class II skim $8.85/cwt. Product avgs.: Butter $1.7617; NFDM $1.1546; Cheese $1.7245; Whey $0.5886. International: W. Europe: Sharp Sept. milk price drops (Germany/Netherlands); Poland cuts ahead; Ukraine volatile.
E. Europe: Steady then Sept. slip; Ukraine expanding toward EU standards by 2030.
Australia: Drought curbs Victoria rainfall; water prices high.
New Zealand: Sept. milk +2.5% (2.67M MT); solids +3.4% (record 5th month).
S. America: +4.3% YTD milk (ex-Brazil); bearish supply glut; La Niña risk; domestic demand favors value staples over imports.
Detailed analysis of NWS control strategies

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