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Binne die volgende dekade gaan die vraag na mielies in Afrika suid van die Sahara skerp styg. Dit kan Suid-Afrika se hoofuitvoermark word, met beter pryse. Suid-Afrikaanse mieliepryse is aan die galop, ondanks die verwagte oes en oordragvoorraad wat voldoende vir die plaaslike mark is. Die witmielieprys het byvoorbeeld tot byna R5 500/t gestyg. Lewerings is traag en vrae word oor die werklike oesgrootte gevra. Terselfdertyd is die tekorte aan mielies en voedsel noord van Suid-Afrika van só ’n aard dat daar sterk mededinging om veral Suid-Afrikaanse witmielies is.  Safex-pryse het in die laaste week van Julie skerp gestyg (met R600/t) en weerspieël nie die voldoende onderliggende aanbod in Suid-Afrika en internasionale pryse nie. Daar is tans ’n baie sterk vraag na Suid-Afrikaanse mielies in Suider-Afrika weens die groot tekorte in veral Zimbabwe en Zambië. Dit is goedkoper om mielies in Suid-Afrika aan te koop as oorsee en dan deur Durban of Maputo in te voer. Daar is boonop baie min witmielies internasionaal beskikbaar.

Citibank has raised its forecast for SA’s GDP growth to 1.2% this year and to 2% next year, citing the positive effect of the two-pot retirement reform, lower inflation and expected interest rate cuts boosting consumer spending after a few years of high inflation and elevated debt. The US multinational projects that inflation will average 4.1% in the fourth quarter. It expects a 75 basis point rate cut at the monetary policy committee’s next three meetings — September, November and January — saying this would help to boost household consumption. “We expect the two-pot retirement reform [effective September 1 2024] to boost GDP growth to 2.0% by 2025. We see upside for SA equities, given the expected positive impact on consumption, namely for consumer stocks, while the impact on banks is likely to be more nuanced, given our expectation that the reform will lead to repayment of high-yielding unsecured consumer debt, with some negative impact on net interest income, countered by better transaction fee income and likely improvements in asset quality.”

Nasionaal het landbou die afgelope kwartaal afgerond 45 000 poste verloor, met verliese in vier uit die nege provinsies (die Wes- en Noord-Kaap, Noordwes en Gauteng). Groot dalings in indiensneming in die landbou is ook in die Noord-Kaap (-38,9%), Gauteng (-28,5%) en Noordwes (-27,7%) beleef, maar hulle verteenwoordig elkeen net ’n klein deel van indiensneming in die sektor, onderskeidelik 3,7%, 6,3% en 3,7%. Die grootste groei in indiensneming in die landbou was in Mpumalanga, wat sowel die aantal poste (26 000) as die persentasie (20,7%) betref. Oor ’n jaar gemeet, het landbou wel werk geskep, maar slegs 1 000 poste, oftewel groei van 0,2%. Minder mense het ook in vier provinsies as plaaswerkers gewerk: die Wes-, Oos- en Noord-Kaap en Limpopo.

The effects of the recent El Niño-induced midsummer drought are starting to show in South Africa's agricultural jobs data. For example, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey data shows that employment in primary agriculture was down 5% quarter-on-quarter to 896,000 in the second quarter of 2024. From an annual basis perspective, the performance is also weak, though up 0.2% from the second quart of 2023. Still, the primary agricultural employment of 896,000 people remains well above the long-term jobs of 799,000 and generally reflects the harsh summer season we are leaving behind. The Western Cape, Northern Cape, North West, and Gauteng are the provinces that showed significant quarterly job losses. Meanwhile, other provinces showed a mild improvement, which was insufficient to change the overall picture of a decline in employment in South Africa's agriculture.

SA’s agricultural exports slowed in the second quarter as volumes declined, despite an improved performance by the country’s ports in the period under review. According to data from Trade Map, produced by the International Trade Centre, SA’s exports declined 0.1% to $3.3bn in the second quarter, from a 6% increase in the first quarter of the year. “The slight decrease in the second quarter reflects the moderation in the prices of some agricultural products and the decline in the volumes. The top exported products by value include citrus, apples and pears, maize, wine, dates, pineapples, avocados, sugar, grapes, fruit juices, nuts and wool,” the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz) said.

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Outstanding articles of the week. Summary of some news Headlines in the Farming and Agriculture media.

Signs of El Niño events are routinely monitored and predicted using observations and climate models. The ability to predict El Niño events improves after the northern hemisphere spring. El Niño events can begin as early as summer and typically reach peak strength during fall or winter in the northern hemisphere. READ MORE

Partnering with South African National Parks (SANParks) and the Lion Recovery Fund, the EWT uses GPS tracking technology to monitor the movements and habitat use of these majestic creatures. This research will culminate in a much-needed population estimate, the first since 2016, providing crucial data for conservation efforts. READ MORE 

Global corn production is forecast down this month with reductions for the European Union, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine, and Moldova more than offsetting an increase for the United States, according to a USDA FAS market report on world grains. Global trade is forecast down as lower exports for Ukraine, Serbia, Russia, South Africa, the European Union, and Paraguay more than offset an increase for the United States.  READ MORE 

The narrative being punted by various urea players of prices rising due to the latest Indian tender was proved false as prices have dropped this week. Urea supply-demand fundamentals point to a very oversupplied market. The Indian tender will likely commit a lot of the surplus product presently available and should tighten the market a little. We expect that prices will soften for the next week or two and thereafter firm steadily for the remainder of the year. READ MORE

Vir almal wat of in die platteland van Suid Afrika  woon, of as stedeling van tyd tot tyd soontoe kom, is dit duidelik hoe die platteland agteruitgaan. Ek het verlede jaar 'n groot deel van die artikel geskryf en geplaas, maar ek het dit weer aangepas vir die jaar.  Ons lees dikwels van die artikels in die media en daar is weer opnuut oproepe om die platteland te herstel-  Op wie se koste gaan dit gedoen word-? Die mense wat dit afgebreek het- het nooit enige aandeel gehad in jarelange opbou daarvan nie- hulle het bloot alles vernietig en verwaarloos ten aanskoue van die mense en hulle voorgeslagte wat dit gebou het. READ MORE 

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