Thundershowers will also occur somewhat further west, to include at times the entire Free State and eastern parts of the Northern Cape. As typical in early summer, conditions will favour severe storm formation in some areas.
The following is a summary of weather conditions during the next few days:
• General:
o Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over the central to eastern and north eastern summer rainfall region, including the maize-production region.
o Below-normal rainfall is expected over the western and southern parts of the country.
o The southern parts of the country will on average remain cooler than normal while temperatures over the northern parts will be near normal to above normal on average.
o Thundershowers over the north eastern parts of the country on Wednesday (20th) and to a lesser extent until Friday (22nd) will have an enhanced tendency to become severe.
o Precipitation will clear towards the weekend except in the far northeast.
o There is no indication of severe cold over the summer grain production region during the coming days.
o Warm, dry and windy conditions may occur over the interior of the Northern Cape and southwestern parts of the Free State and surrounding areas during most of the period.
o Fresh to strong south easterlies are expected over the southwestern parts on Wednesday (20th) and again from Monday (25th).
• Rainfall:
o Scattered showers and thundershowers will persist over the northeastern half of the country, including the maize-production region, until Friday (22nd).
o Widespread thundershowers and rain, with significant falls in places, will occur over the north eastern half (including the entire maize-production region) of the country on Wednesday (20th).
o Most of the central interior will be dry during the weekend into early next week according to current forecasts.
o Thundershowers will be confined to the far north eastern parts (mostly Gauteng and further east) during the weekend and early next week according to current forecasts. o Apart from the eastern to north eastern parts of the Northern Cape, the Cape provinces are expected to be dry during the period.
o Light showers are possible along the northern coastal areas of the Eastern Cape and the KZN coast from Saturday to Monday (23rd - 25th).
o Light showers are possible along the Garden Route on Sunday (24th).
• Temperatures:
o The interior of the Northern Cape and surrounding areas will be warm to hot, windy and dry with moderate to strong westerly winds for most of the period.
o The southwestern parts of the country, into the high-lying southern parts of the Northern Caper, will remain cooler than normal with southerly to westerly winds through most of the period. Minimum temperatures should remain in or near the single digits for most of the period over these areas.
o It will become warm to hot over the central parts (interior of the Northern Cape, western North West and western Free State) during the weekend and early next week.
o Very hot, heat-wave conditions are possible over the Limpopo River Valley by early next week (Monday / Tuesday) according to current forecasts.
o By Sunday (17th) and Monday (18th), renewed cooling is indicated over the southwestern parts of the country as cool to cold air will invade the area from the southwest according to current forecasts. It will be windy and minimum temperatures over the southwestern and southern interior may fall to the single digits according to current forecasts.
Overview of expected conditions over South Africa during the next few days
Conditions in main agricultural production regions (19 - 25 November)
Maize production region:
Widespread thundershowers are expected initially over most of this region, concentrating in the east towards the weekend, with warmer and drier conditions from the weekend into early next week. Conditions will generally change from mostly cloudy with thundershowers initially to sunny and mostly dry especially in the west by the weekend according to current forecasts. On average, temperatures will be near normal, especially over the western to north-western areas of the region.
Maximum temperatures over the western maize-production region will range between 28 and 33 °C (warmer conditions later in the period) while minimums will be in the order of 16 - 21°C. Maximum temperatures over the eastern maize-production region will range between 24 and 31°C (warmer conditions towards the weekend and next week) while minimums will be in the order of 13 - 17°C. Widespread thundershowers are possible over the entire region on Wednesday (20th). Further widespread thundershowers will occur mostly over the northern parts on Thursday (21st). By Friday, thundershowers may spread over the entire region again, but somewhat more isolated in nature. During the weekend, most areas should be dry, but thundershowers are still expected in the east.
Cape Wine Lands and Ruens: It will be cool to mild over the area on most days with little to no rain during the period. Strong south easterlies are possible in the southwest on Wednesday (20th) and again by early next week. Light showers are possible along the Garden Route and far southwest during the weekend. It may become hot along the West Coast towards the north by early next week.
Possible extreme conditions - relevant to agriculture
According to current model projections (GFS model) of weather conditions during the coming week, the following may be deduced:
• Thundershowers on Wednesday (20th) and to a lesser extent until Friday (22nd) over the northeastern to far eastern parts may become severe (central to eastern North West, Free State, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and northern KZN).
• Daily rainfall totals may exceed 50 mm over in isolated areas over central to eastern North West, Gauteng and western Limpopo on Wednesday (20th).
• Hot and humid conditions are expected over the Lowveld of Mpumalanga and Limpopo on Sunday (24th) continuing over Limpopo on Monday (25th).
• Hot, dry and windy conditions over the interior of the Northern Cape and southwestern parts of the Free State (and surrounding areas) on most days may be conducive to the development and spread of wild fires where vegetation is dry.
• Strong easterlies to south easterlies are possible along the southwestern coastal areas on Wednesday (20th) and again by early next week.
• Strong south westerlies are possible along the Eastern Cape coast on Sunday and Monday (24th / 25th) according to current forecasts.
