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VIEWPOINT-Global ENSO Forecasts for South Africa's 2025/2026 Summer Season

VIEWPOINT-Global ENSO Forecasts for South Africa's 2025/2026 Summer Season

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Global climate models, including those from the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC/NCEP/NWS) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), confirm the development of La Niña conditions in September 2025, with a high probability (around 70-71%) of persistence through the first half of South Africa's summer (October 2025–February 2026).

This aligns with your description of La Niña dominating the initial phase. However, forecasts indicate a 55% chance of transition to neutral ENSO conditions (neither La Niña nor El Niño) in the second half (January–March 2026), rather than a shift to La Niña again—potentially moderating rainfall later in the season. Overall, this points to a wetter-than-average summer, especially in the northeastern and central summer rainfall regions (e.g., Mpumalanga, Gauteng, Free State, and North West), which encompass most of the grain belt.

South Africa's summer grains (primarily maize, sorghum, and sunflowers) are predominantly rainfed (about 90% of production), making them highly sensitive to rainfall patterns. The 2025/2026 season outlook is cautiously optimistic for grain farmers, building on the recovery from the 2023/2024 El Niño drought that slashed white maize output by 25%. Here's a breakdown of key predictions:

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Positive Outlook from La Niña-Driven Rainfall
  • Above-Normal Precipitation: Expect average to above-average rainfall from December 2025 to March 2026 across the summer grain belt, with early-season boosts (October–November) in eastern areas like Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal. This should improve soil moisture for planting, support crop establishment, and boost yields—potentially leading to a harvest similar to or exceeding the 2024/2025 bumper crop of 19.55 million tonnes (up 26% year-on-year).
  • Regional Benefits: Northeastern and central grain areas (e.g., eastern Free State) are forecast for the highest rainfall probabilities, aiding 90% rainfed maize production. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo notes general farmer optimism, with early rains already enhancing soil conditions for the 2025/2026 planting (starting soon).
  • Economic Upside: Favorable conditions could stabilize food prices, enhance food security, and support exports. Last season's La Niña rains lifted maize output to 15.8 million tonnes (23% increase), demonstrating the pattern's potential.
La Niña increases the likelihood of intense downpours and flooding, especially in the east (e.g., KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng). The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued yellow-level warnings for North West and Free State, warning of road closures, infrastructure damage, livestock losses, and crop disruptions. Historical events like the 2022 and 2025 Mthatha floods highlight risks of soil erosion and harvest delays.  By late summer (February–March 2026), weakening La Niña could lead to drier spells in western grain areas (e.g., North West, western Free State), with below-normal rainfall possible. This might stress late-maturing crops or early plantings reaching harvest in April, increasing vulnerability to heat or humidity. While La Niña offers relief, models suggest a shift to drier cycles from 2026–2030, urging farmers to use this season for restructuring (e.g., selecting high-yield fields, diversifying irrigation). Extreme events are becoming more frequent regardless of ENSO phase.
With drier conditions looming post-2026, focus on sustainable practices like conservation agriculture and hybrid seeds resilient to variable rainfall. Market Watch: Input costs (e.g., fertilizers, fuel) are easing, supporting profitability if yields hold. In summary, grain farmers can anticipate a strong 2025/2026 season with La Niña boosting output in the first half, tempered by flood risks and a potential neutral shift later—offering recovery but requiring vigilance.
As a farmer, you know your land like the back of your hand. The soil’s texture, the rhythm of the seasons, the way the wind shifts before a storm—these are your guides, honed by years of living close to nature. Farming is profitable, no question, but it’s your practical experience, not textbook theories, that keeps your fields thriving.Sure, economists and weather gurus have their place. They’ll throw out forecasts—La Niña’s coming, expect 600 mm of rain, or markets will spike in March. AI can crunch numbers, predict yields, or map soil moisture. These tools are useful, no doubt. They can flag risks like flooding in KwaZulu-Natal or a dry spell in the Free State come February 2026. But they’re not out there with you, feeling the dirt under your boots or watching the clouds build.
At the end of the day, planting isn’t about someone in an office telling you October 15 is the magic date. It’s about reading your farm’s signs—when the soil’s warm enough, when the first rains soften the ground, when the birds start acting like they know something’s coming. Your gut, backed by years of sowing and reaping, tells you when to plant, when to irrigate, when to harvest. That’s your true intelligence.So, listen to the data, check the forecasts, even play with AI if it helps. But don’t let a suit who’s never touched a seed dictate your moves. Trust your land, your instincts, and the wisdom nature’s taught you. That’s what makes a farmer—and that’s what keeps farming profitable.

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