Christian Vercuil Winner- Third Runner - Technical - 2023

Christian Vercuil  Winner- Third Runner - Technical - 2023

Hollard Insure and Farmingportal.co.za and Agri News Net - Young Agri Writers awards

The effect of load shedding on irrigated wheat

South Africa produces on average 1.82 million tonnes of wheat in the last 10 years. Of the total hectares, 75% is planted dryland with only 25% under irrigation. If we look at production as a whole, we do see that only 53% of total production is produced by dryland areas and 47% under irrigation. Irrigation as a whole therefore makes up a large part of the country's wheat production. The Western Cape is the province where most wheat is grown with 64% of the total wheat area and produces 44% of the total tonnes.

Chart 1: Wheat: % Dryland vs. Irrigated (tonnes)

Normal irrigation costs for the producer in Limpopo and in the Northern Cape are respectively R5 775/tonne and R6 126/tonne under normal conditions. Normal conditions refer to the ability that producers had to schedule irrigation better due to the uninterrupted availability of electricity. This enabled them to irrigate at night when effectiveness is higher and not to irrigate during peak times because electricity is more expensive during these periods. Growers could also adjust irrigation in line with the crop's growth phase for when water needs change. With the current power situation, this is no longer possible and producers are forced to irrigate when electricity is available. This situation also causes irrigation systems to be active for shorter periods and have to be switched on more often which further drives up labor costs. In most cases, these short periods are not enough to meet the crop's irrigation needs and alternatives must be found to supply power to systems. Generators are currently the most practical and effective way. This form of electricity generation can increase the producer's irrigation costs by up to 20%.

Table 1: Sensitivity analysis of the profit that irrigated wheat can produce in Limpopo with changes in yield and irrigation costs if the producer fertilized for 7t/ha.

The sensitivity analysis shows the change in profit with the change in yield due to the lack of irrigation, and the change that can occur if a producer decides on a generator, which can increase his irrigation costs. The table clearly indicates that if yield is not affected and irrigation costs only increase by 10%, the producer can move from R309/ton profit to -R269/ton loss. If irrigation costs remain constant and the yield is reduced by 0.5t/ha, a producer can move from a profit of R309/ton to a susceptible loss of -R2 590/ton. It is also important to mention that the profitability of irrigated wheat is more susceptible to being affected by a loss in yield than an increase in irrigation costs and if the crop is planted, it would be better to increase the irrigation costs than to reduce the yield. brother.

Table 2: Sensitivity analysis of the profit that irrigated wheat can produce in the Northern Cape with changes in yield and irrigation costs if the producer fertilized for 7t/ha.

The table clearly indicates that if yield is not affected and irrigation costs only increase by 10%, the producer's profitability moves from R503/tonne to R197/tonne profit. If irrigation costs remain constant and the yield is reduced by 0.5t/ha, the producer's profitability moves from R503/tonne profit to a susceptible loss of R2 433/tonne.

Table 3: Losses in wheat production under irrigation.

If it is no longer profitable to produce wheat under irrigation, there is the possibility that producers may decide against planting the crop. If producers do decide not to produce, this could possibly increase the demand for wheat imports. Table 3 indicates the loss in production if production of wheat is restricted due to a lack of profitability. This imported wheat is directly accompanied by currency leaving the country, which could instead have remained in the country and been received by producers.

Summary:

The power situation in South Africa is currently a big stone in the shoe for producers. If this situation continues, there is a great possibility that it will negatively affect the production of many different crops. The great danger does exist where products such as maize and wheat are affected, which serve as staple food and cheap food and threaten food security. The loss of currency and associated risks such as job losses and rising food inflation as a direct effect of the power situation are only some of the many problems that a struggling economy faces.

I grew up in Limpopo, just outside of Polokwane. My father is a potato farmer, and therefore I have always had a love for agriculture. I completed my Bcom Agribusiness management degree and afterwards my honours degree in Agricultural economics at the university of Pretoria. I have started as an intern agricultural economist at Grain SA in November 2021 and has recently been promoted to Junior economist.

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