The presence of a La Niña event usually has its strongest impact on rainfall during the mid-summer months. With the continued strengthening of the La Niña event, there is a high chance that it will have its usual effect on South Africa, which is generally for above-normal rainfall and below-normal temperatures over the summer rainfall areas. The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country for all predicted seasons. Minimum temperatures are still expected to be above-normal countrywide, however, maximum temperatures are expected to be below-normal over large parts of the country during early- (Nov-Dec-Jan), mid- (Dec-Jan-Feb) and late-summer (Jan-Feb-Mar). The South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor the weather and climate conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season
Summary implications to various economic sector decision makers Water and Energy The expected above-normal rainfall for most parts of the country across the predicted seasons is likely to increase dam water levels, particularly in summer rainfall regions such as in Mpumalanga and the Free State, where a slight decline in water levels was reported lately. These conditions are expected to benefit areas such as KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, where water levels have remained stable. Abovenormal rainfall conditions might also heighten chances of flash flooding in regions prone to floods. Above-normal minimum temperatures expected across the country, and below-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country, are likely not impact the cooling/heating demand except for parts of the Western and Northern Cape, where the above-normal temperatures are expected during mid- and late-summer and will likely increase the demand for cooling. Relevant decision-makers should take note of the above-mentioned potential outcomes and advise the affected businesses and communities accordingly.
Health The above-normal rainfall forecast for most parts of the country for all predicted seasons may increase the danger of flash floods in some regions, particularly in flood-prone areas and regions with poor drainage systems. These wet conditions may increase waterborne infections and water-related injuries and accidents. It is recommended that members of the public take precautions and abide by the advice and recommendations from local authorities. The expected minimum summer temperatures may result in warmer conditions, particularly at night, for most of the country. The ultraviolet radiation (UV) levels during this reporting period are expected to be very high, thus the risk of UV-related health adverse effects is imminent, necessitating the public to take appropriate sun protection measures such as seeking shade, wearing clothing that covers the body, and applying sunscreen, especially at midday.
The public is urged to take precautions and adhere to local authorities' recommendations and guidelines. Agriculture Above-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country during the early- mid- to late summer seasons, which is likely to bring positive impacts for crop and livestock production. Therefore, the relevant decision-makers are encouraged to advise farmers to prepare land for planting, to practice measures such as soil and water conservation, proper water harvesting and storage, establishing good drainage systems, and other appropriate farming practices.
