The war between the United States, Israel and Iran that began on 28 February 2026 is already hitting farmers and food systems around the world hard. What started as a military conflict has turned into a major economic shock because Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz have blocked or severely slowed the flow of oil, natural gas and fertiliser. About one-third of the world’s traded fertiliser normally passes through that narrow waterway. With shipping almost at a standstill for more than six weeks, fertiliser prices have jumped 30–40% in many places in just one month. Energy prices have also soared because roughly 30% of global oil and 20% of natural gas move through the same strait.
Farmers everywhere are feeling the pain right now. In the United States, Europe, Australia, India and Africa, the spring planting season (March to May) is the most critical time of the year. Many farmers cannot get enough fertiliser at a reasonable price, or they are paying much more than usual. Some are already cutting back on how much they plant or switching to crops that need less fertiliser. That means lower harvests later this year and into 2027.The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that this is no longer just a regional crisis. Global food prices rose again in March 2026, and the upward pressure is expected to grow through April and May as planting decisions are made.
Experts say food inflation could add several percentage points to grocery bills in the coming months, especially for staples like bread, rice, meat and dairy that depend heavily on fertiliser and cheap energy. Poorer countries that import most of their fertiliser and fuel are being hit hardest. Smallholder farmers in Africa and Asia who already operate on tight margins may simply plant less or not at all. The World Food Programme estimates that the higher energy and food costs could push up to 45 million more people into acute hunger in the next few months if the disruptions continue.
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Even in wealthier nations, the ripple effects are clear. Higher diesel prices make it more expensive to run tractors, trucks and irrigation pumps. Plastic packaging (made from oil) costs more. Transport costs for moving food from farm to shelf are climbing. All of this adds up and eventually reaches consumers at the checkout till. The next six months (April to October 2026) will be decisive. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does not return to normal soon, the full impact of this year’s reduced planting will start showing up in lower crop yields from late 2026 onwards.
Food prices are expected to stay elevated for the rest of 2026 and possibly into 2027. Some analysts warn of a “perfect storm” if a strong El Niño weather pattern arrives on top of these supply problems. The world is stressed, and farmers are carrying a big part of the burden. They did not start this war, but they are paying a huge price for it through higher costs, lower profits and the risk of smaller harvests. For ordinary families, it will mean more expensive food on the table
. For governments, it could mean tougher choices on subsidies, interest rates and food aid. The situation is still developing. A temporary ceasefire was announced in early April, but tensions remain high and the US has now imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports. Until ships can move freely through the Strait of Hormuz again, the pressure on global food systems will keep building.Farmers and consumers worldwide are already paying the price – and the next six months will show just how big that price really is.
Every day the media is full of negative stories about the challenges facing farmers — rising costs, fertiliser shortages, higher fuel prices, and the impact of the US-Iran conflict. Most of these reports are built on sensation and paint a very dark, almost hopeless picture. But the truth is this: our farmers are strong and resilient. They have faced droughts, floods, economic crises, disease outbreaks, and many other difficulties before, and they have always found a way to survive and keep producing food for the nation.
Yes, the current situation with disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, expensive inputs, and global uncertainty is tough. It is putting real pressure on costs and planting decisions right now. However, farmers are practical, hardworking people who know how to adapt. They have done it in the past, and they will do it again. Instead of only focusing on the problems and fear, we should also recognise the strength, determination, and experience of South African (and global) farmers. They are not fragile — they are survivors who feed millions every single day.The coming months will be challenging, but with smart decisions, support where it is truly needed, and their own resourcefulness, farmers will get through this crisis too — just as they have survived many others before.Farmers are tougher than the headlines want us to believe..
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