South Africa’s seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2022. The biggest contributors to this contraction were agriculture, forestry & fisheries (-7.7%), followed by manufacturing (-5.9%), mining & quarrying (3.5%), construction (-2.4%) and trade, catering, and accommodation (-1.5%).
The field crops subsector is the only subsector where revenue contracted in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. This can largely be attributed to a decline in the GVP of major summer crops such as maize which contributes almost 40% to the GVP of field crops. Despite the price of both yellow and white maize increasing by an average of 37% y-o-y, the crop is smaller than in 2021, though it is still well above average. More importantly, maize was harvested later this year – hence a substantial share was delivered in July and will thus reflect in quarter 3. The result is a 55% decline in producer deliveries in quarter 2 and thus, despite the higher price, a 43% decline in the GVP of maize y-o-y. BFAP expects a strong rebound in growth from this subsector in quarter 3, due to the delay in deliveries and we expect the annual GDP for grains and field crops to come out positive despite the sharp decline in quarter 2.
