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Farmland is still getting more expensive, but not quite as quickly as in recent years, according to the latest farmland value report from Canada’s biggest agricultural lender. Farm Credit Canada put average national farmland value growth in 2023 at 11.5 percent, down from 12.8 percent in 2022. “We’re seeing a little bit of a pullback,” FCC chief economist J.P. Gervais said. “It’s still double digit, still a very significant increase.” Given global geopolitical events, which have led to significant market volatility in the last few years, Gervais was expecting even more of a pullback. There was significant variability. Land value growth in some provinces remained above 10 percent, while British Columbia’s pace actually dipped into the red by 3.1 percent, although it also had the highest average land value on a per-acre basis. The highest average provincial increases in farmland values were found in Saskatchewan, Quebec and Manitoba, with increases of 15.7 percent, 13.3 percent and 11.1 percent, respectively. That’s up from 14.2, 11 and 11.2 percent, respectively, in 2022.

In a decisive response to the devastating impacts of the El Nino weather phenomenon, President Lazarus Chakwera has declared a State of Disaster in 23 out of Malawi's 28 districts. This declaration, announced during a national address at Kamuzu Palace in Lilongwe, underscores the government's commitment to addressing the urgent food security crisis that threatens nearly 2 million farming households across the nation. The El Nino event has wrought havoc on Malawi's agricultural landscape, affecting approximately 749,113 hectares of maize, which represents 44.3 percent of the national crop area. Essential crops such as rice, soya beans, cowpeas, and groundnuts have also suffered significant damage. President Chakwera has mobilized the Ministry of Agriculture alongside other key agencies and international partners to evaluate the full extent of the impact, with a preliminary assessment revealing the dire need for close to 600,000 metric tonnes of maize to avert a hunger crisis.

Global rice markets are currently facing a severe crisis, a situation exacerbated by India's decision to ban the export of certain rice varieties. This move has sent shockwaves through international markets, significantly impacting food security in developing nations. India, a major player in the global rice market, implemented export restrictions to prioritize its domestic needs amidst rising food insecurity within its borders. India's pivotal role in the global rice supply cannot be overstated, as it accounts for 40% of the international rice trade. The restrictions began in September 2022 with a ban on broken rice exports and a 20% export duty on some rice varieties. The situation escalated in July 2023 when India extended its ban to include exports of plain, white, long-grain rice. This decision was made in an attempt to stabilize domestic rice prices and ensure sufficient local supply. However, these measures have led to a sharp increase in global rice prices, with rates soaring to their highest in nearly 12 years, as reported by the International Food Policy Research Institute.

Domestic food price inflation remains high. Inflation higher than 5% is experienced in 60% of low-income countries (no increase since the last update on February 29, 2024), 63.8% of lower-middle-income countries (2.2 percentage points lower), 46% of upper-middle-income countries (4.0 percentage points higher), and 27.3% of high-income countries (9.1 percentage points lower). In real terms, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation in 62.9% of the 167 countries where data is available.

Compared to two weeks ago, the agriculture and cereal price indices each closed 2% higher, and the export price index closed 1% higher. Among cereals, maize prices closed 12% higher, wheat prices were down 4%, while rice prices closed at the same level compared to two weeks ago. On a year-on-year basis, maize prices are 32% lower and wheat prices are 21% lower. Rice prices on the other hand are 27% higher. Compared to January 2020, maize prices are 14% higher, wheat prices are 3% lower, and rice prices are 50% higher (See “pink sheet” data for agricultural commodity and food commodity prices indices, updated monthly.)

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) issued a special brief highlighting that the situation in the Gaza Strip has reached catastrophic levels, with Famine projected to occur between now and May 2024 in the northern governorates of Gaza and North Gaza. Currently, 1.11 million people, comprising half of the Gaza Strip's population, are in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), facing extreme food shortages and an inability to meet basic needs, resulting in increased risks of acute malnutrition and death. Additionally, 854,000 people (38% of the population) are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), requiring immediate action to save lives and livelihoods. In the northern governorates, where Famine is projected, 70% of the population is expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), while the rest will face Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Household surveys reveal alarming trends, with virtually all households skipping meals daily and a significant portion of children under two suffering from acute malnutrition.

In February 2024, as highlighted in the AMIS March 2024 Market Monitor, despite external disruptions such as shipping problems and farmer protests in various countries, food commodity markets remained relatively stable. Wheat, maize, and soybean prices decreased to their lowest levels in two years, and rice prices decreased slightly because of a reduction in trading during the Lunar New Year holidays, although they remained significantly higher than a year ago. The month was marked by unusually warm temperatures, which accelerated crop growth in many regions, with winter wheat crops in the northern hemisphere starting to emerge from dormancy and maize and soybean harvesting continuing in the southern hemisphere.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) recently demonstrated how the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now spanning two years, continues to have profound effects on global agricultural markets, posing substantial challenges to food security worldwide. The war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has disrupted agricultural production and trade in Ukraine, a major agricultural exporter, and threatens global food security. Despite initial shocks, global commodity markets have adapted to these disruptions, partly because other suppliers, including Russia, have increased exports, which has helped alleviate some of the initial impacts.

A new large-scale study examining data from 44 low- and middle-income countries revealed the potential impacts of food prices on child malnutrition. A 5% increase in the real price of food over a 3-month period increases the risk of wasting by 9% and of severe wasting by 14% in children under five. Young boys, children from rural and asset-poor households, and children living in household without farmland are more susceptible to wasting. The study also highlights the enduring consequences of even brief nutritional setbacks in a child’s early life. A 5% increase in food prices during the prenatal period is associated with a 1.6% greater risk of subsequent stunting and a 2.4% greater risk of severe stunting. Higher food prices also decrease young children’s dietary quality. The study found that a 5% real food price increase in the past 12 months predicted a 3% decrease in the likelihood of having an adequately diverse diet as consumption shifted to cheaper, starchy staples.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trade-related policies imposed by countries have surged. The global food crisis has been partially made worse by the growing number of food trade restrictions put in place by countries with a goal of increasing domestic supply and reducing prices. As of March 11, 2024, 16 countries have implemented 23 food export bans, and 8 have implemented 15 export-limiting measures.

 World Bank Action

In May 2022, the World Bank made a commitment of making available $30 billion over a period of 15 months to tackle the crisis. We have surpassed that goal. The World Bank has scaled up its food and nutrition security response, to now making $45 billion available through a combination of $22 billion in new lending and $23 billion from existing portfolio.

Our food and nutrition security portfolio now spans across 90 countries. It includes both short term interventions such as expanding social protection, also longer-term resilience such as boosting productivity and climate-smart agriculture.

  World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update - 3rd Week March 2024

The Bank's intervention is expected to benefit 335 million people, equivalent to 44% of the number of undernourished people. Around 53% of the beneficiaries are women – they are disproportionately more affected by the crisis. Some examples include:

• In Honduras, the Rural Competitiveness Project series (COMRURAL II and III) aims to generate entrepreneurship and employment opportunities while promoting a climate-conscious, nutrition-smart strategy in agri-food value chains. To date, the program is benefiting around 6,287 rural small-scale producers (of which 33% are women, 15% youth, and 11% indigenous) of coffee, vegetables, dairy, honey, and other commodities through enhanced market connections and adoption of improved agricultural technologies and has created 6,678 new jobs.
• In Honduras, the Corredor Seco Food Security Project (PROSASUR) strives to enhance food security for impoverished and vulnerable rural households in the country’s Dry Corridor. This project has supported 12,202 extremely vulnerable families through nutrition-smart agricultural subprojects, food security plans, community nutrition plans, and nutrition and hygiene education. Within the beneficiary population, 70% of children under the age of five and their mothers now have a dietary diversity score of at least 4 (i.e., consume at least four food groups).
• The $2.75 billion Food Systems Resilience Program for Eastern and Southern Africa, helps countries in Eastern and Southern Africa increase the resilience of the region’s food systems and ability to tackle growing food insecurity. Now in phase three, the program will enhance inter-agency food crisis response also boost medium- and long-term efforts for resilient agricultural production, sustainable development of natural resources, expanded market access, and a greater focus on food systems resilience in policymaking.
• A $95 million credit from IDA for the Malawi Agriculture Commercialization Project (AGCOM) to increase commercialization of select agriculture value chain products and to provide immediate and effective response to an eligible crisis or emergency.
• The $200 million IDA grant for Madagascar to strengthen decentralized service delivery, upgrade water supply, restore and protect landscapes, and strengthen the resilience of food and livelihood systems in the drought-prone ‘Grand Sud’.
• A $60 million credit for the Integrated Community Development Project that works with refugees and host communities in four northern provinces of Burundi to improve food and nutrition security, build socio-economic infrastructure, and support micro-enterprise development through a participatory approach.
• The $175 million Sahel Irrigation Initiative Regional Support Project is helping build resilience and boost productivity of agricultural and pastoral activities in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. More than 130,000 farmers and members of pastoral communities are benefiting from small and medium-sized irrigation initiatives. The project is building a portfolio of bankable irrigation investment projects of around 68,000 ha, particularly in medium and large-scale irrigation in the Sahel region.
• Through the $50 million Emergency Food Security Response project, 329,000 smallholder farmers in Central Africa Republic have received seeds, farming tools and training in agricultural and post-harvest techniques to boost crop production and become more resilient to climate and conflict risks.
• The $15 million Guinea Bissau Emergency Food Security Project is helping increase agriculture production and  access to food to vulnerable families. Over 72,000 farmers have received drought-resistant and high-yielding seeds, fertilizers, agricultural equipment; and livestock vaccines for the country-wide vaccination program. In addition, 8,000 vulnerable households have received cash transfer to purchase food and tackle food insecurity.
• The $60 million Accelerating the Impact of CGIAR Research for Africa (AICCRA) project has reached nearly 3 million African farmers (39% women) with critical climate smart agriculture tools and information services in partnership with the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers (CGIAR). These tools and services are helping farmers to increase production and build resilience in the face of climate crisis. In Mali, studies showed that farmers using recommendations from the AICCRA-supported Rice Advice had on average 0.9 ton per hectare higher yield and US$320 per hectare higher income.
• The $766 million West Africa Food Systems Resilience Program is working to increase preparedness against food insecurity and improve the resilience of food systems in West Africa. The program is increasing digital advisory services for agriculture and food crisis prevention and management, boosting adaption capacity of agriculture system actors, and investing in regional food market integration and trade to increase food security. An additional $345 million is currently under preparation for Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo.
• A $150 million grant for the second phase of the Yemen Food Security Response and Resilience Project, which will help address food insecurity, strengthen resilience and protect livelihoods.
• $50 million grant of additional financing for Tajikistan to mitigate food and nutrition insecurity impacts on households and enhance the overall resilience of the agriculture sector.
• A $125 million project in Jordan aims to strengthen the development the agriculture sector by enhancing its climate resilience, increasing competitiveness and inclusion, and ensuring medium- to long-term food security.
• A $300 million project in Bolivia that will contribute to increasing food security, market access and the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices.
• A $315 million loan to support Chad, Ghana and Sierra Leone to increase their preparedness against food insecurity and to improve the resilience of their food systems.
• A $500 million Emergency Food Security and Resilience Support Project to bolster Egypt's efforts to ensure that poor and vulnerable households have uninterrupted access to bread, help strengthen the country's resilience to food crises, and support to reforms that will help improve nutritional outcomes.
• A $130 million loan for Tunisia, seeking to lessen the impact of the Ukraine war by financing vital soft wheat imports and providing emergency support to cover barley imports for dairy production and seeds for smallholder farmers for the upcoming planting season.

In May 2022, the World Bank Group and the G7 Presidency co-convened the Global Alliance for Food Security, which aims to catalyze an immediate and concerted response to the unfolding global hunger crisis. The Alliance has developed the publicly accessible Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard, which provides timely information for global and local decision-makers to help improve coordination of the policy and financial response to the food crisis.

The heads of the FAO, IMF, World Bank Group, WFP, and WTO released a Third Joint Statement on February 8, 2023. The statement calls to prevent a worsening of the food and nutrition security crisis, further urgent actions are required to (i) rescue hunger hotspots, (ii) facilitate trade, improve the functioning of markets, and enhance the role of the private sector, and (iii) reform and repurpose harmful subsidies with careful targeting and efficiency. Countries should balance short-term urgent interventions with longer-term resilience efforts as they respond to the crisis.

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