Jomo Kenyatta famously said, "Our children may learn about heroes of the past, our challenge is to make ourselves architects of the future".
Africa can produce enough food for its growing population, estimated to more than double to 2.5 billion persons in 30 years, dramatically reduce its $>35 billion import food bill (~85% of its food needs), utilise precious foreign currency saved for socioeconomic development and increase foreign currency earnings from trade. But its heavy reliance on food imports is detrimental to food security, especially at a time of acute crisis exacerbated by Covid-19 and war in Eastern Europe.
Large-scale commercial farming is significant in some countries like South Africa, Kenya and Cote d’Ivoire, but food security is secured largely by smallholder farmers who produce about 70% of the continent’s food. Addressing small holder farmer productivity and sustainable access to markets is key to securing food security and reduce Africa’s food import bill.
Presently, smallholder farmer yields, remain low and unpredictable - about 20-30% of possible yields for key crops like cassava, maize, rice, soybean, cocoa, oil palm, rubber, coffee and cotton. The reason for low and volatile yields vary, but common factors include poor yielding seeds, poor farming practices, a lack of mechanisation, a lack of financing solutions and an over-reliance on increasingly erratic rains.
Poor yields are further compounded by high post-harvest loses (PHL) which are very high on the continent compared to global standards. According to AUDA-NEPAD, about 1.3 billion metric tons (accounting for 30-40%) of Africa food produce are lost to PHL. The food lost to PHL each year is enough to feed the continent’s 235 million undernourished people. These factors contribute to productivity and financing risk and make financial institutions wary of financing Small Holder Farmer production.
Many governments have created policy incentives to enable smallholder farmers to access markets and improve productivity, and many actors in the public and private sector are making notable efforts to address the challenges facing Small Holder Farmer productivity and access to markets. We believe the most effective approach is a value chain ecosystem approach with a private sector anchor in processing and marketing, supported by government creating an enabling environment and possibly offering limited, time bound guarantees on debt lending. The advent of the AfCFTA connecting 1.3 billion people across 55 counties within the continent will also act as an effective enabler for the ecosystem across the entire value chain.
Government support can be a catalytic good
While the intent is laudable, some government efforts to support value chains enabling small holder farmer production like Nigeria in rice, have led to sharp price increases as imports are abruptly stopped with local supply unable to fill the void. A policy with phased protections of local production could enable a smoother transition to a shift in local over foreign supply. Targeting the premium segment of rice imports for example, enables the local production of premium rice at competitive prices given the high price ceiling. As local production efficiency improves, it can be scaled to serve lower segments at a competitive price enabling a smoother switch from imports and reducing the price shocks from disrupted supply chains.
Today, Africa is at an inflexion point, as the growing middle class and urbanisation in the continent are shifting the consumption patterns, which if not addressed properly, can dramatically increase food imports.
The crisis that erupted in February 2022 was European. However, the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops set in motion developments that have hit Africa hard. The supply of grain and other agricultural products collapsed in one fell swoop, highlighting how dependent large parts of the continent still are on imports.
"The Ukraine conflict, but also the coronavirus pandemic, have shown how our food systems are not working for the poorest," Sara Mbago-Bhunu, of the United Nations agency International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), told DW.
Africa faces huge food-supply obstacles in a just transition – and time is running out
According to the Tanzanian economist, the financial burden on individual households had already risen sharply as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. She said that between 60 and 70% of people's income was now spent on food. "Households of five or six have to weigh what they can afford and will probably turn to less nutritious products that are cheaper," she added. Experts agree that the system needs to be reformed urgently. They tout an approach that would change the whole process of getting produce from the farmer to the dinner table.
Many African countries, including Zambia, Malawi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, have the potential to become food exporters, said Mbago-Bhunu. They could produce more than they need for their own markets simply because of their large swaths of arable land.
One cannot really say that the region is a "breadbasket" because conditions are not ideal for growing wheat and other common cereals used to make bread. However, cereals such as millet and sorghum ARE grown in abundance, as well as a wide variety of fruits and vegetables. In some areas, livestock farming could produce meat and dairy products on a large scale.
But there would be several hurdles to overcome for this to happen. For example, it would be necessary to change much-used farming methods, such as slash-and-burn, which have depleted the soil. Water reservoirs in southern Africa would urgently need to be protected to enable agriculture, said Mbago-Bhunu.
It would also be necessary to exploit various existing technologies to improve yields per hectare. Other experts say that local investment and knowledge transfer, for instance, on drip irrigation and the use of fertilizers, are also needed.
