Strategie Grains has revised its forecast higher for European Union soft wheat production and exports based on strong harvest expectations in France and Britain as well as increasingly competitive E.U. export prices.
In its monthly report, Strategie Grains projected 2019-20 soft wheat production in the E.U. at 142.9 million tonnes, up from 140.6 million tonnes in July and 12% above last year’s crop.
The French consultancy said it expects soft wheat production in France to rise to about 39 million tonnes,
Soft wheat prices have been falling in western Europe, making it more competitive against Black Sea suppliers such as Russia and Ukraine, the report said
“This has produced two important consequences: Ukrainian wheat is no longer competitive for import into the E.U., and E.U. wheat is in the process of attracting international export demand away from Russian wheat,” Strategie Grains said in the report.
While official E.U. data show 2019-20 soft wheat exports running 30% below last season’s pace, Strategie Grains said volumes for this season are underestimated due to delays in receiving customs data from E.U. member states.
