Up to 3.3 million new direct green jobs could be created across Africa by 2030, mostly in the renewable energy sector and particularly solar, new analysis forecasts.
The report provides detailed forecasts for five focus countries: South Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria.
Together, these countries account for more than 22% of new jobs, and in key sectors such as renewable energy, e-mobility, agriculture, construction and manufacturing, according to the research by Shortlist and FSD Africa, with analysis from the Boston Consulting Group.
“Africa, despite contributing only 3% of global carbon emissions, holds the unique potential to lead in global decarbonisation efforts and capitalise on new green industries,” the report said. “With vast natural resources, renewable energy potential, and the world’s largest rising workforce, Africa can leapfrog directly to renewable energy, bypassing carbon-intensive infrastructure,” the report said.
South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria represent the highest job creation potential (16%) because of their population, GDP and industry maturity. The renewable energy sector is expected to generate up to two million jobs of which 1.7 million will be in solar, with 140 000 jobs in South Africa and 111 000 jobs in Kenya.
Agriculture and nature are forecast to produce up to 700 000 jobs (25% of the total), of which more than half (377 000) will come from climate smart agriculture technology.
For South Africa, 85 000 to 275 000 new green jobs are forecast by 2030, mainly in energy and power production, and agriculture and nature.
Hydroelectric is forecast to be the leading employer in both the DRC (16 000 jobs) and Ethiopia (33 000). The DRC is predicted to have 15 000 to 45 000 new green jobs by 2030, mainly in energy and power production and distribution. Ethiopia is expected to see 30 000 to 130 000 new green jobs by 2030, mainly in energy and power production, according to the research.
Nigeria could create 60 000 to 240 000 new green jobs by 2030, with aquaculture and poultry leading job creation. Kenya is predicted to create 40 000 to 240 000 green jobs by 2030, with the solar sector leading this job creation, an estimate of 11 000 jobs by the decade’s end.
‘Africa’s green promise’
The report predicts that 60% of the employment generated by the green economy over the coming six years will be skilled or white collar in nature.
Within this, 10% constitute “advanced jobs” (highly skilled, requiring university degrees), while a further 30% are projected to be “specialised” (requiring certification or vocational training) and 20% will be administrative.
“Crucially, these job types tend to attract higher salaries and will, therefore, play a central role in spurring the growth of the middle class in countries hosting these high-growth sectors,” according to the report.
Some organisations have estimated that the green economy could create up to 100 million new and improved jobs and livelihoods in Africa by 2050 but achieving the continent’s “green promise” requires supportive policies, infrastructure and financial investments estimated at more than $100 billion annually.
“However, the success of green economic growth also hinges on developing the right human capital and talent. A skilled green workforce is essential for both driving and benefiting from this growth,” the report said.
While infrastructure, policy, and capital flows are frequently analysed, talent demand and supply dynamics have been “overlooked”.
Greenwashing Africa’s “green” metals
The authors pointed out that although the near-term projection of more than three million new direct jobs in 12 sub-sectors by 2030 is significant, it underestimates the broader job creation potential. This is because the research focused only on jobs created by 2030, while the “largest potential lies in the long term”.
It considered only the 12 most mature sub-sectors, excluding promising areas such as biofuels, green hydrogen, agroforestry and regenerative agriculture. The forecast also excluded “green-adjacent” sectors such as minerals and mining, which are crucial for green growth but not typically considered green under current practices.
“We believe it is important to start with this narrow 2030 view, because these three million plus jobs will underpin broader growth in the green workforce. If we fail to identify, train and equip the talent needed immediately for Africa’s maturing industries, the larger and longer-term forecasts may remain aspirations,” the authors said.
