The recently released United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s monthly report could be the key driver of the global maize market today.
The agency placed its 2018/19 global maize production estimate at 1.07 billion tonnes, up by 3 percent from the previous season. This is in line with the International Grains Council estimate for the corresponding period.
The US, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and China are amongst the key countries underpinning the expected large global maize harvest. This has overshadowed the possible decline in production in other major maize producing countries such as the EU, India and South Africa.
Zooming into South Africa, the USDA left its estimate for the country’s 2018/19 commercial and non-commercial maize production unchanged from September 2018, at 13.0 million tonnes. This is about 3 percent lower than the previous season’s harvest, but well above the long-term average production. Nonetheless, this is well above the International Grains Council’s estimate of 12.3 million tonnes for the corresponding period due to a variation in yield expectations.
Be that as it may, the planting activity has not yet commenced in many provinces, the aforementioned estimates are partly based on historical data. Key to look out for going forward is the ‘intentions of farmers’ to plant figure which will be released on 25 October by the Crop estimate Committee, as well as the weather outlook given the prospects of an El Niño later in the summer season
Aside from the aforementioned weather developments, the dam levels have improved significantly in the Western Cape province, thanks to the recent rainfall. AGBIZ
