The information presented is based on assumptions about a range of economic, technological, environmental, political, institutional, and social factors.
The outlook is generated by the BFAP system of models. A number of critical assumptions have to be made for baseline projections. One of the most important assumptions is that normal weather conditions will prevail in Southern Africa and around the world; therefore yields grow constantly over the baseline as technology improves. Assumptions regarding the outlook of macroeconomic conditions are based on a combination of projections developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at Stellenbosch University. Baseline projections for world commodity markets were generated by FAPRI at the University of Missouri. Once the critical assumptions are captured in the BFAP system of models, the Outlook for all commodities is simulated within a closed system of equations. This implies that, for example, any shocks in the grain sector are transmitted to the livestock sector and vice versa. Therefore, for each commodity, important components of supply and demand are identifi ed, after which an equilibrium is established through balance sheet principles by equalling total demand to total supply. This year’s baseline takes the latest trends, policies and market information into consideration and is constructed in such a way that the decision maker can form a picture of equilibrium in agricultural markets given the assumptions made. However, markets are extremely volatile and the probability that future prices will not match baseline projections is therefore high. Given this uncertainty, the baseline projections should be interpreted as one possible scenario that could unfold, where temporary factors play out over the short run and permanent factors cause structural shifts in agricultural commodity markets over the long run. The baseline, therefore, serves as a benchmark against which alternative exogenous shocks can be tested and interpreted. In addition, the baseline serves as an early-warning system to inform role-players in the agricultural industry about the potential eff ects of longterm structural changes on agricultural commodity markets, such as the impact of a sharp increase in input prices or the impact of improvements in technology on the supply response.
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Forward - Summary
The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), founded in 2004, is a non-profi t organisation. BFAP exists with the distinct purpose to objectively inform and support decision-making by stakeholders in the agro-food, fi bre and beverage sectors of Africa. It provides independent, rigorously tested, research-based market and policy analyses. BFAP consists of a network of employees and collaborators in the public and private sector and at universities spanning the African continent. BFAP has developed a fi rm reputation of delivering upon its commitment of informing and supporting decision makers in government, industry bodies, NGO’s, and private sector. We collaborate with various internationally recognised institutions including the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) and the BER (Bureau for Economic Research). BFAP is also a founding partner in the Regional Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes (ReNAPRI) in Eastern and Southern Africa.
