Climate
“The soil is the great connector of lives, the source and destination of all. … Without proper care for [the soil] we can have no community, because without proper care for it we can have no life.”
Wendell Berry, The Unsettling of America: Culture and Agriculture, 1977
In this fifth article in my series on the mitigation of risk in farming, I pay attention to Climate as one of the key risks which cuts across all the elements of the production value chain. Under the heading ‘Climate’, I consider all aspects of the weather including seasonal changes to temperature, rainfall, hours of sunlight and issues impacting on grazing such as soil erosion to mention a few of the more obvious climate-related factors. Of all the natural systems to which the farmer is exposed, climate is certainly completely beyond his control. This is not the same as saying that “climate is an un-mitigatable risk”. It is worth noting that we now understand solar cycles and the geo-mechanics of weather far better than we did even twenty years ago, empowering us now to begin to mitigate many of the risks associated with anticipated seasonal and cyclical changes in weather patterns and other climactic fluctuations.
When considering changes in climate it is imperative to contextualize these within the framework of geological time and not that of a human generation or two. Research into Solar Sunspots and analysed data from ice-core samples from Greenland, offer strong evidence that, contrary to what the popular, mass media and politicians are communicating, Earth is entering a period of global cooling which, over the next decade, will see us experiencing longer, colder, drier winters, while summers will become shorter in duration, but also cooler and drier! Again, it is imperative that we do not use ‘living memory’ as our yardstick to establish new trend-lines when dealing with changes in weather patterns. Even a century of time holds little statistical validity when dealing with geological time measured in hundreds of thousands, and even millions of years. Climate is a cyclical phenomenon, with change being the constant.
(Aside: Up until the late 1960s, wheat was planted in March in the Middelburg District of the Eastern Cape. Lambing took place in the wheat fields in August and September. What happened to this?)
The Mitigation of Risk - a wolf in sheep’s clothing - Part 4
Relating ‘climate’ as a risk factor to sheep farming, a mitigation plan would begin with questions around issues such as the timing of introducing a ram to breeding ewes, choice of breed to better cope with colder or warmer temperatures, the timing of shearing, required interventions during times of expected sub-zero or +forty degree temperatures, the short, medium and long-term impacts of frost and snow on grazing and water sources, the need for, and costs of supplemental nutrition, and the predictable increase in predation by jackals and other predators during longer, colder winters, to mention a few.
Given the often overwhelming odds which seem to be stacked against farming in general, and sheep farming in particular, I believe that it is absolutely necessary to systematically and consistently to improve the quality of the discussions and arguments we have when addressing issues such as the mitigation of risk and the development of innovative solutions to the often stubborn challenges. Further, the ultimate aim or outcome of the data and information being collected by farmers, and generated by numerous study groups and research teams needs to be collated, updated and shared as knowledge which can then be tested and verified back in the field. If we are to perform adequately as the custodians of the land and of the wisdom gained from generations of successful farming practice, then the accurate recording of findings and experiences which do in fact mitigate risks, and can promote the development of affordable and sustainable solutions, should be top of mind. By not paying serious enough attention to this and related issues, we run the very real risk of losing forever, the knowledge and wisdom of our current elders, remembered as ‘word-of-mouth’ anecdotes as told to them by their elders sixty, seventy or eighty years ago. Is this a risk worth mitigating?
Using consumer market dynamics as a perspective can offer us a different insight into the mitigation of risks associated with climate. Consider that many more lamb chops will be barbequed (sal gebraai word) in the months from December to February, when compared to the period from May to July, but that ‘skaapskenkels’ (‘shank’ as ek die regte Engelse woord vir die stuk skaapvleis onthou!) will be required for many more stews during those winter months than in the peak of summer. How does this simple, consumer buying pattern of cuts of meat, driven by seasonal weather, impact on the timing of production and the marketability of mutton and lamb? A similar argument would of course apply to the demand for wool. Can these timing risks and pressures on production, based on seasons and weather, be mitigated?
Mitigating the risks presented by changing climatic conditions must be regarded as a multi-year project! Consider for example the need for increased and improved shade during severely hot and dry conditions. Short of erecting shade-providing structures out in the veld, under which the sheep could seek shade and shelter from the sun and heat, the planting of stands of water-wise indigenous tree species is a mitigation strategy for only the most patient of farmer. Similarly, preparing for water-scarce periods or even droughts, could mean the building of a new dam, the laying of kilometers of piping, and the installing of many watering points for the flocks. Mitigation processes such as this require careful planning, costing and management, with the functional benefit possibly only being experienced in a year’s time. An understanding and reading of ‘climate’ as a cyclical phenomenon allows for the development of a time-adjusted planning perspective. Weather as the most commonly understood ‘expression’ of climate, does not just happen, but rather, it follows predictable laws of geophysics and atmospherics. The principles of these physical and earth sciences are now well documented and available to all who will take the trouble to discover, read, question and understand. The building and sharing of knowledge of your regional climate is possibly the most powerful risk mitigation strategy you could employ, but please remember that in the context of human longevity, climate works in multi-generational cycles.
Lastly, the Climate Change lobby groups would see all farms being taxed additionally for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from their vehicles, machinery, crops and animals. Pressure on governments to comply with United Nations / WEF proposed legislation around this issue will increase between now and 2030. How do South African farmers plan to mitigate the enormous impact of this risk to their farms and the profitability of their businesses? Have you given thought to the impact on your viability as a farmer, if a 15% surcharge was to be imposed on each kilogram of mutton or wool you sold to cover the sin of ‘emitting carbon’?
If you would like to communicate directly with the author, you are invited to contact PJ at the following email address: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
