The study's results, published in Animals, reveal that many countries may have reached peak meat consumption in several countries. However, there is also proof of continued consumption increase in many of the emerging economy nations. The researchers said they found evidence of this when they attempted to link Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita to meat consumption per capita. They found a direct link between rising consumption and increased wealth in emerging economies, but no relationship in the higher income countries.
Between 2000 and 2019, there were major changes in meat consumption across the globe. In 2019, poultry was the most popular meat globally speaking, followed by pork, beef, and then sheep and goat meat.
In most of the countries studied (26 of 35), total meat consumption per capita increased significantly over time, with the most substantial increases observed in Russia, Vietnam and Peru.
The study found that global beef consumption between 2000 and 2019 dropped by 3.9% from 22.8% to 18.9%. Consumption of beef only increased in Ethiopia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Vietnam. There was no change in consumption in the recorded years in China, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the UK.
Per capita pork consumption increased slightly in China and substantially in Vietnam. In total, 19 countries experienced increased pork consumption per capita, while in seven countries decreased their consumption.
In countries with decreasing trends in pork consumption per capita, the change was small in magnitude, except in Canada where a substantial decrease was recorded from 22.6 kg/capita in 2000 to 16.3 kg/capita in 2019.
The contribution of pork to world total meat consumption was lower in 2019 than in 2000 (32.6% vs. 38.6%). In Vietnam and China, pork contributed two-thirds of total meat consumption per capita in 2000, but by 2019 its contribution was only half of total meat consumption. Although the report doesn't mention African swine fever as a cause, it is likely that shrinking supply was the cause of the decrease.
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Per capita, the study found that poultry consumption more than doubled in 13 countries between the recorded years.
Modest changes were made to the U.S. meat production outlook this month, however USDA's January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates has dropped the forecast for U.S. pork exports considerably.
"We reduced our pork export forecast by 405 million pounds, so right now overall forecast is 7 billion pounds, and that reduction this month reflects primarily the fact that China has been buying less pork," says World Ag Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekanowski.
"By China buying less pork, that both reduces our own exports directly to China, but it also means that other countries that were exporting to China are now looking for other markets to market that pork and that is also competing with U.S. exports," he says.
Overall, the U.S. meat trade forecast is down 459 million pounds.
Meat production
"For 2022, in terms of beef production we increased our beef production forecast by 160 million pounds. That mainly reflects higher than expected fourth quarter cattle placements that should be increasing supplies for slaughter later in the year, so that is reflected in the higher beef production," Jekanowski says.
"Pork production on the other hand, we pulled it back by 80 million pounds reflecting information that we got out of the Hogs and Pigs Report that was released late last month, that showed slower farrowing intentions for the first half of this year, and so should tighten up hog supplies for slaughter later in the year."
There were no month-over-month changes to turkey production, but broiler production is up, “reflecting strong prices and a strong first quarter pace for broiler slaughter," Jekanowski notes.
Meat prices
The January WASDE expects strong prices, especially on the hog side.
"Strong beef prices as well, supporting cattle prices, so we increased our steer price forecast for 2022 by $1.50/hundredweight, and didn't make any changes to our hog price forecast," says Jekanowski.
The report placed steer prices at $136.75/cwt and hogs at $60.25/cwt.
"Meat prices generally have been strong and a lot of that has been filtering back to livestock production level," Jenkanowski says. "Our broiler price forecast, we raised by 10.5 cents a pound, now at $1.12 per pound. That's again, more than a 10% increase in our broiler price forecast, and turkey price forecast, we raised by 2.3 cents per pound to 125.3 cents per pound."
