African Swine Fever Outbreak in China Expected to Support Prices-South Africa


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Beef prices in the local market remained relatively stable this week with the market less active following the wet conditions around the country. Prices of class A and class C beef increased week-on-week by 1.6% and 0.7% respectively; weaner cattle prices declined by 1.2% week-on-week.
Mutton: New Zealand have reported an increase in demand for sheep meat products as seen by the slight increase in lamb price of 0.3%
week-on-week although ewe prices remained the same. Domestically, class A prices traded positively with a 0.7% increase week-on-week
while class C and feeder lamb prices traded negatively with a decrease of 2.4% and 1% respectively.
Pork: The US hog market traded up this week with some large increases in prices due to the increased demand from China following the
African Swine Fever outbreak. Of the US total pork export commitments, 26.3% are destined for China. Large volatility is expected in the US
pork market in the next few months. Domestic prices traded slightly down this week with porker prices decreasing by 1.2% week-on-week and
baconer prices decreasing by 0.4% week-on-week. Local pork prices are expected to continue their declining trend through to June.
Poultry: The US poultry market was a bit mixed this week with prices of whole birds, frozen MDM and Leg quarters increasing yet the prices
of breasts and fresh MDM decreasing. A statement by the International Poultry Council said that poultry is positioned to become the worlds
most consumed meat protein in 2019 following the African Swine Fever outbreak in China. Domestic poultry prices are expected to continue
their declining trend however may receive support from international poultry prices.
Hides: The local hide market is down by 78.2% compared to last years price of R8.18/kg. Prices have declined by 0.7% week-on-week.

US prices for topside, striploin and brisket increased week-on-week while the prices of rump and chuck decreased. All US prices have increased in
comparison to last year's prices. The USDA Cattle-on-Feed report released last week showed that there will be a steady flow of market-ready cattle into Summer. The demand for beef is strong and the cut-out value is well above that of last year. The loss of the pig herd in China due to African Swine Fever will support the demand for US beef and benefit exports. New Zealand prices for Steers remained the same while prices for cows increase slightly compared to last week.

Beef prices in the local market remained relatively stable this week with the market less active following the wet conditions around the country. Prices of class A and class C beef increased week-on-week by 1.6% and 0.7% respectively; weaner cattle prices declined by 1.2% week-on-week. All current domestic prices are lower than prices experienced last year with weaner cattle prices 17.6% lower. The AMIE Carcass import parity remained the same as last week but is 18.3% higher than it was a year ago.

Domestic beef prices are expected to remain fairly stable in the next three months following a similar trend to last years' prices. Weaner cattle prices pay increase slightly in May in line with trends. International markets are hoping for support from the Chinese market as demand increases following the African Swine Fever outbreak.

New Zealand have reported an increase in demand for sheep meat products as seen by the slight increase in lamb price of 0.3% week-on-week
although ewe prices remained the same. The import parity for New Zealand lamb declined by 0.4% week-on-week while the import parity for Ewe declined by 0.4%. Specific cuts: mutton ribs prices declined by 2.7% week-on-week; as mutton shoulders were not traded last week there is no week-onweek comparison however prices are seen to be down by 1.2% compared to a year ago.

Domestically, class A prices traded positively with a 0.7% increase week-on-week while class C and feeder lamb prices traded negatively with a
decrease of 2.4% and 1% respectively. The price of Dorper skins remained the same as last week although prices have declined by 4.8% compared to a year ago. The number of animals slaughtered this week is 23.8% more than the number last week and is 5.4% more than the number of animals slaughtered a year ago.

Prices of class A are expected to remain fairly stable with slight increases in prices in the coming months, from end of May/beginning June prices are expected to start declining. Class C prices are expect to continue their decline until June when prices are expected to increase in line with seasonal trends.

The US hog market traded up this week with some large increases in prices due to the increased demand from China following the African Swine Fever outbreak. The Chinese pig herd has dropped dramatically following the outbreak and large imports of pork to China are expected in the second half of 2019. Of the US total pork export commitments, 26.3% are destined for China. Week-on-week US prices of loins and ham increased by approximately 2.4% while carcass prices were up 3.9%. Rib prices experienced the largest week-on-week increase in price of 9%.

The number of animals slaughtered this week is down by 20.1% from last week. Domestic prices traded slightly down this week with porker prices decreasing by 1.2% week-on-week and baconer prices decreasing by 0.4% week-on-week. AMIE reported that there were no trade figures for pork loins this week.

Local pork prices are expected to continue their declining trend through to June. Although China has increased it's pork purchases from the US, there is still no deal in sight for the US/China trade negotiations. Large volatility is expected in the US pork market in the next few months.

The US poultry market was a bit mixed this week with prices of whole birds, frozen MDM and Leg quarters increasing yet the prices of breasts and fresh MDM decreasing. Whole birds went up 0.9% while breasts went down 0.9% week-on-week and fresh MDM was down 2.2% while frozen MDM was up 2.4%. Year-on-year prices of whole birds, breasts and MDM have declined with frozen MDM experiencing the largest decline of 13.7%. The US poultry industry is hoping for price support following the African Swine Fever outbreak in China devastating pig herds and reducing the protein supply in China.

Local poultry prices increased this week with strong demand for Individually Quick Frozen chicken causing a week-on-week price increase of 3.7%. Although the demand is there for whole birds, the reduced consumer purchasing power is resulting in resistance to increased prices. Prices of fresh whole birds increased by 0.8% week-on-week while the price of frozen whole birds increased by 0.4% week-on-week.

Domestic poultry prices are expected to continue their declining trend however may receive support from international poultry prices. International poultry prices are expected to increase in the coming months following an increase in demand. A statement by the International Poultry Council said that poultry is positioned to become the worlds most consumed meat protein in 2019 following the African Swine Fever outbreak in China.

The local hide market is down by 78.2% compared to last years price of R8.18/kg. Prices have declined by 0.7% week-on-week. The Red
Meat Abattoirs Association weighted feedlot hide price has declined by 2.6% week-on-week, their average field hide price has remained
the same week-on-week at R1.49/kg.

Domestic hide prices are continuing their decline. The South African Footwear and Leathers Export Council is on a mission to assist local
producers gain a foothold in the Ghanaian market, creating a mutually beneficial relationship between the two countries.

Beef carcass prices: Class A: Weaner or A grade (0-18 months, Milk Teeth). Class C: (48 – 50 months, 8 Teeth). (Source: Red Meat Abattoir Association; beef carcass prices are a week delayed). Live weaner calf prices: Weaner (200-250kg) Average live weaner calf prices (Excluding VAT) at auctions and feedlot in the Northern Free State and auctions in the Central Free State (Bloemfontein) in the current week. AMIE carcass
import parity price; wholesale delivered price of beef trimmings 80VL (Excluding VAT) (Source: Association of Meat Importers & Exporters; prices are a week delayed) Beef trimmings are pieces of meat remaining after steaks, roasts, and other cuts are removed. Beef trimmings are very often used to make ground beef. VL: Visual Lean.