World Obesity and RTI International developed a model to estimate the economic impact of overweight and obesity from a societal perspective.
This report provides estimates of the current (2019 data) and future (2020 through to 2060) economic impact of overweight and obesity from 28 obesity-related diseases, for 161 countries.
Report summary findings: If current trends continue, using data from 161 countries, it is anticipated that by 2060 the economic impacts from overweight and obesity are projected to rise to > 3% of GDP globally. The biggest increase will be concentrated in lower-resource countries with total economic impacts increasing by 4-fold between 2019 and 2060 in high-income countries, whereas they increase 12-25 times in low and middle-income countries. Reducing projected overweight and obesity prevalence by 5% annually from current trends or keeping it at 2019 levels will translate into savings of US$430 billion or US$2.2 trillion in costs respectively every year between 2020 and 2060 globally.
By 2030 it is predicted that 1 in 5 women and 1 in 7 men will be living with obesity (BMI ≥30kg/m2 ), equating to over 1 billion people globally.
Obesity-related ill-health accounted for over 5.0 million deaths globally in 2019, with more than half of these deaths occurring among people under 70 years old.
The rise in obesity prevalence has
both health and economic consequences but the latter have not been explored greatly at a global level. A better understanding of the economic consequences of overweight and obesity should help strengthen the case for action.
To build the evidence, RTI International and the World Obesity Federation have estimated the likely economic impact of overweight and obesity over the next 40 years across 161 countries (covering around 97% of the world’s population).
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The results are summarised in the present publication.
The evidence presented here greatly extends the data from the analysis of eight countries published in 2021 by the World Obesity Federation (see The Economic Impact of Overweight and Obesity in Eight Countries: Summary Report). The current report is based on data published in 2022 by Okunogbe et al. in BMJ Global Health. Taking account of increases in population levels and changes in age distributions, and assuming the trends in obesity prevalence continue, the global economic costs of overweight and obesity are predicted to rise from a little under US$ 2 trillion in 2020, to over US$ 3 trillion by 2030, and more than an astonishing US$ 18 trillion by 2060 (all at 2019 prices). The rise in costs will especially affect upper middle-income countries as well as higher income countries, and will be seen in every region of the world.
On present trends, by 2060 the large majority of countries are projected to experience overweight and obesity prevalence levels above 70% of the entire population, including children.
Increases in overweight and obesity prevalence are based on current trajectories, taking account of changes in age structures over the period to 2060. Anticipated economic costs are a result of the changes in population size, the costs of health care and the strength of the health system, likely costs of lost production taking account of wage structures and expected employment rates in different sections of the population.
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