More than three million new direct green jobs, driven largely by solar energy projects, have been forecast for Africa by 2030.
The Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa report shows that South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria represent the highest job creation potential (16%) due to population, gross domestic product (GDP) and industry maturity.
The research shows that South Africa has the highest employment impact potential across the solar value chain, similarly so for the wind energy sector.
The renewable energy sector alone is expected to generate up to 2 million jobs (70% of the total) of which 1.7 million will be in solar.
Touted as a first of its kind report, the authors, Shortlist and FSD Africa, with analysis from the Boston Consulting Group, forecasts the potential for direct green jobs in 12 value chains from five material sectors (energy and power; mobility and transportation; agriculture and nature; construction and real estate; and manufacturing and materials).
These value chains were prioritised based on Africa’s comparative advantage and potential employment intensity in the near term.
The study provides detailed forecasts for five focus countries, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa.
The success of green economic growth also hinges on developing the right human capital and talent
These countries together account for more than a fifth (22%) of new jobs, and in key sectors such as renewable energy, e-mobility, agriculture, construction and manufacturing.
“While some experts have suggested that up to 100 million green jobs may be created by 2050, this report takes a more near-term, sober, and realistic look at the job creation potential of just 12 specific sub-sectors or value chains and only until 2030,” said FSD Africa.
Key findings
1. Solar is the most important contributor to green jobs in South Africa (140,000 jobs) and Kenya (111,000 jobs).
2. Hydroelectricity is forecast to be the leading employer in both DRC (16,000 jobs) and Ethiopia (33,000).
3. Agriculture and nature are forecast to produce up to 700,000 jobs (25% of total), of which more than half (377,000) will come from climate smart agriculture technology.
More than half of green jobs by 2030 will be white collar
The report predicts that 60% of the employment generated by the green economy over the coming six years will be skilled or white collar in nature.
Within this, 10% constitute “advanced jobs” (highly skilled, requiring university degrees to fulfil), whilst a further 30% are projected to be “specialised” (requiring certification or vocational training) and 20% will be administrative in emphasis.
“There is a cross-sector effort across Africa to spur employment and sustainable development,” said Mark Napier, CEO of FSD Africa, “but stakeholders lack a shared, granular understanding of where the green jobs are going to come from.”
Paul Breloff, CEO of Shortlist, said: “This is the first public report that takes seriously the notion that human capital and talent is important as both an input to green economic growth, and as a positive outcome – in the form of millions of new, direct jobs.”
South Africa
· Between 85,000 and 275,000 new green jobs are forecast by 2030 – mainly in energy and power production, and agriculture and nature
· The solar sector leads job creation in South Africa with 140,000 jobs projected
Nigeria
· Nigeria predicted to create between 60,000 and 240,000 new green jobs by 2030
· Aquaculture and poultry lead job creation, with 69,000 jobs projected
Kenya
· Kenya predicted to create between 40,000 to 240,000 green jobs by 2030
· The solar sector leads this job creation, with estimates that it will generate 111,000 jobs in the country by the decade’s end
Ethiopia
· Ethiopia will see between 30,000 and 130,000 new green jobs by 2030, mainly in energy and power production
· Hydropower generation leads as a job-creating sector, with 33,000 jobs projected
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
· The DRC is predicted to add between 15,000 and 45,000 new green jobs by 2030; mainly in energy and power production and distribution
· Again, hydropower is expected to lead job creation as a sector with 16,000 jobs expected
Developing the right human capital for the green economy
The African Development Bank (AfDB) projects that by 2030, Africa will create 15m jobs for new entrants joining the workforce – the new direct green job forecasts will account for 20% of the new entrants workforce.
The report says that achieving or exceeding these targets requires persistent and intentional action from stakeholders (ie learning and training institutions, funders and investors, large employers and industry associations, and policy makers and researchers) on skilling and enablement.
FSD Africa said that achieving Africa’s green promise requires supportive policies, infrastructure and significant financial investments, estimated at over $100 billion annually.
“However, the success of green economic growth also hinges on developing the right human capital and talent. A skilled green workforce is essential for both driving and benefiting from this growth.”
Green jobs forecast
1. Solar – 800,000 to 1.75m solar energy jobs projected in Africa by 2030
2. Wind – 50-80K wind energy jobs projected in Africa by 2030 only taps into 0.2% of the continent’s total technical potential
3. Geothermal – 1-30K geothermal energy jobs projected in Africa by 2030
4. Hydro – 20-170K in hydro jobs projected in Africa by 2030
5. Power transmission and distribution – 60-200K jobs projected by 2030
6. Battery storage – 20-50K battery storage jobs projected in Africa by 2030
7. Electric 2 wheelers – 28-43K E2W jobs projected in Africa by 2030
8. Charging infrastructure – 13-27K jobs projected in Africa by 2030
9. Climate smart agriculture – 90-377K jobs projected in Africa by 2030
10. Aquaculture and poultry – 110-190K jobs project in Africa by 2030
11. Ecosystem conservation and NBS (Nature-based solutions) – 30-115K jobs projected
12. Waste remediation and recycling – 40-200K jobs expected
