The Socioeconomic Impact of Climate Change in Developing Countries in the Next Decades: A Review provides a discussion of future trends as established in the literature on the interaction between socioeconomic indicators and projected future climate change scenarios. It enhances our understanding of future predicted patterns of climate change effects in the coming decades and the need for climate-resilient interventions.
There is a significant body of literature on climate impacts on GDP per capita and crop yield in developing countries. However, impacts on farmland value, water resources, and energy security have received much less attention. Across sectors, countries, and regions, the most vulnerable groups were found to be disproportionately affected, and the impact is predicted to be larger in the long term than in the medium term. There are feasible adaptation and mitigation options, but these need to be developed and designed to reflect local peculiarities or contexts. Generally, the review report indicates the need for urgent actions to be undertaken, especially in the most vulnerable countries, if we are to stand a chance of averting or minimizing the menace of climate change in the future.
Climate change is a growing threat to the world. Extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns will become more frequent, posing a particular threat to developing countries, where social, economic, and political institutions are fragile. If the menace of climate change is not addressed, the socio economic problems of developing countries, particularly in Africa, will deepen and erode the gains made in development in the last decades.
Climate change has triggered a coffee and cocoa conundrum
This concern has spurred research interest in the effects of climate change on socio economic indicators. The purpose of this report is to gather evidence and analyze the effects of climate change on socioeconomic indicators in developing countries. This approach involved reviewing previously published studies on the topic, with a focus on developing countries. As these studies differ in methods, initial conditions, and model assumptions, it is difficult to draw comparisons. At best, we can analyze the general patterns observed. Specific focus is given to the following socioeconomic indicators: GDP per capita (income), agricultural productivity (food security and farmland value), hunger and undernourishment, poverty, health, water resources, and energy security.
The following are the major highlights of the report.
1. Economic loss due to climate change will be significant in the long term in developing countries. Although there are varied perspectives on the effects of climate change on economic growth, the balance of evidence indicates that economic growth will decline more in developing countries – in Africa in particular – and in the long term. For Africa, studies have suggested moderate economic loss in the medium term, before 2050, but beyond this period, economic loss due to climate change will increase. The literature has suggested a mean decline of 7.12 percent of GDP in the long term. Even within Africa, the most vulnerable subregions and countries will be disproportionately affected. Western and eastern Africa will suffer the most due to global warming. Country-level projections have suggested much greater economic losses, ranging from –11.2 percent to –26.6 percent of GDP in the long term, in the most affected regions of Africa. While at the global level, negative effects from warming become more pronounced at around 2 degrees Celsius, smaller temperature increases could cause significant negative impact on socioeconomic indicators in developing regions, including Africa. The spatial and temporal variations in the evidence indicate the need to consider the local context when developing climate adaptation and mitigation interventions.
