Global Economy in 2024 – Growth Expects to be Weaker
The 2020s has been a bumpy decade so far for the global economy. By March, most countries were locked due to the Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain was disrupted for the two consecutive years. Just when the world had emerged from the crisis, a new catastrophe unfolded with Russia, invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The European Union and other countries put sanctions on Russia, the world’s leading exporter of oil and gas. Europe dramatically stopped most trading with its biggest energy partner. So as the decade trundles onward into 2024, is the global economy heading for some much-needed respite and stability? What market experts say? What was the past market scenario? What will be the next in 2024? Let’s try and understand the big economic picture.
According to market experts, global economy growth is likely to be weaker in 2024. There is an expectation that GDP growth of worldwide countries will not be hugely different in 2024 compared with 2023 but many predict a slowdown. Some researchers have predicted that global growth of around 2.5% this year, down from almost 3% reported in 2023.
Global trade
Post Covid-19 pandemic, global trade has increased in 2022. The value of imports shipments was higher than exports. In 2023, supply chain was relatively better than previous years. According to market experts, trade of commodities would be better in 2024 with fluctuations in between the months. Here’s a chart showing global imports and exports in the last five years.
|
Year |
Imports (Value USD Billion) |
Exports (Value USD Billion) |
|
2018 |
19,665 |
19,328 |
|
2019 |
19,091 |
18,757 |
|
2020 |
17,710 |
17,508 |
|
2021 |
22,443 |
22,142 |
|
2022 |
25,371 |
24,611 |
What to expect from South Africa's economy in 2024
U.S. imports and exports
It is expected that the United States of America would see a stronger growth as compared to China and Europe. Total trade of the U.S. has increased in the last two years, imports were higher than exports. Look at chart and analyse US imports and exports reported in the last five years.
|
Year |
Imports (Value USD Billion) |
Exports (Value USD Billion) |
|
2018 |
2,609 |
1,665 |
|
2019 |
2,563 |
1,642 |
|
2020 |
2,406 |
1,424 |
|
2021 |
2,936 |
1,754 |
|
2022 |
3,375 |
2,062 |
|
2023 (Till Q3) |
2,371 |
1,507 |
China imports and exports
Indeed, China’s cooling economy is something to watch closely in 2024, given how critical the world’s second-largest economy is to the globe. See China’s imports and exports reported in the last five years.
|
Year |
Imports (Value USD Billion) |
Exports (Value USD Billion) |
|
2018 |
2,134 |
2,494 |
|
2019 |
2,066 |
2,498 |
|
2020 |
2,057 |
2,588 |
|
2021 |
2,675 |
3,361 |
|
2022 |
2,715 |
3,593 |
|
2023 |
1,889 |
2,520 |
Taiwan and Ukraine Crisis
Although the recent meeting between XI Jinping and Joe Biden suggested some kind of thaw in US-China relations, the prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan hangs over the global economy like few other possible events.
While a conflict in Taiwan is perhaps something for the future, the Ukraine war is likely to remain a significant influence on the global economy in 2024. The Russia-Ukraine war directly affects three things – food, fertilizer, and fuel. The world’s poorest countries, particularly African region saw a profound impact on global energy and food markets. At the same time, some countries like India found opportunities in their export businesses.
Election fever around the world
India is one of the several countries that will hold decisive elections in 2024. Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, and the United Kingdom are among other countries to hold elections. Bangladesh elected new government on 07 Jan 2024. Many of these countries have global economic significance but it’s hard to look past the 2024 US presidential election as the most decisive of all.
There’s a wide range of other factors and possible events that business leaders and economists have trained sights on for 2024.
