The International Grains Council lifted expectations for world grain stocks, reflecting enhanced expectations for both corn and wheat, despite European Union downgrades.
The intergovernmental group lifted by 4.8m tonnes to 630.0m tonnes its forecast for global grain inventories at the close of 2020-21, expanding to 8.0m tonnes the expansion expected year on year.
The revision reflected a 5.7m-tonne upgrade to. 2.23bn tonnes, in the production forecast, as both corn and wheat harvests were seen larger than previously thought, despite dryness setbacks to European Union crops.
Harvest revisions
For corn, the IGC upgraded by 2.5m tonnes to 1.17bn tonnes its forecast for what it heralded as “the biggest maize harvest in history”, led by a 3.4m-tonne increase to 384.2m tonnes in the estimate for the US harvest.
For wheat, world production was pegged at 763.3m tonnes, some 1.3m tonnes above last month’s estimate, on increased expectations for Canada, Russia and, in particular, Australia, which was now seen reaping a 27.5m tonnes harvest.
That is above expectations from most other commentators, including the US Department of Agriculture, which foresees a 26.0m-tonne crop, with Australia’s official Abares bureau on 26.7m tonnes.
The upgrades were offset in part by a lower number for the EU, cut by a further 3.8m tonnes to 121.8m tonnes (excluding the UK), below estimates from other analysts.
The move also enhances China’s new-found lead in world wheat output, with its harvest figure held at 135.0m tonnes.
‘Maize demand seen rising the most’
The corn and wheat harvest revisions were reflected in stocks estimates too, with wheat inventories now seen ending the season at a record 293.6m tonnes, 5.5m tonnes more than previously thought.
The corn stocks figure was nudged 400,000 tonnes higher to 288.2m tonnes, although that still represents “the fourth consecutive contraction”, the council said.
The continued decline reflects increasing consumption, with the IGC saying that “amid record [grain] supplies, maize demand is seen rising the most, up by 33m tonnes year on year”, with a particularly strong increase, of nearly 20m tonnes, expected for feed use.
Industrial consumption is also seen recovering markedly, by 13.0m tonnes, in 2020-21 as the worst effects of the Covid-19 pandemic pass.
