CUMULUS  report 27th October  2022 – South Africa

CUMULUS report 27th October 2022 – South Africa


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While totals were generally low, most areas received some rain and more can be expected during the next few days, especially over the eastern parts of the country where cumulative totals may exceed 25 mm over most of the eastern maize-production region and generally across the Eastern Highveld. As can be expected during periods with normal to above-normal rainfall over parts of the summer rainfall region, fresh to strong south-easterlies will occur on several days in the southwestern parts of the Western Cape. As we progress into summer, and with dry conditions over the winter rainfall region, the main focus area of wild fires will also start shifting to this region from the interior.

The following is a summary of weather conditions during the next few days:

• General:

o Temperatures will on average be above normal over the western to southern interior, but near normal over the central to eastern interior and along the coastal belt.

o It will in general be cooler than early this month over most areas.

o Rainfall will be above normal over the eastern parts, but normal to below normal over the rest of the country, including the winter rainfall region. o Isolated to scattered thundershowers are possible over the eastern parts until early next week.

o Isolated to scattered thundershowers are also possible over the western interior according to current forecasts on Friday and Saturday. o Rainfall totals over the western to central parts will mostly remain low.

o Cumulative rainfall totals may exceed 25 mm over the Eastern Highveld and surrounding areas.

o There will be several cloudy and cool days with light showers along the southeastern to eastern coastal belt. o While most of the country is expected to receive some rain during the next few days, current forecasts indicate drier conditions setting in from the west later this weekend and early next week.

o The winter rainfall area is expected to receive little to no rain during the period. o While there isn’t a particularly strong indication for widespread severe storms over the country, some thundershowers may produce hail and strong winds given the time of year, occasional intrusion of dry air from the west as well as atmospheric wind and temperature profiles supportive of thunderstorm development.

o The western to central interior will remain windy on certain days, especially in the afternoons. o Strong south-easterlies are expected in the southwest from time to time. o There are some early indications of a more intense weather system that may develop by the middle of next week and which may bring stormy conditions over the eastern parts of the summer rainfall region including also the Eastern Cape. These forecasts are still quite uncertain given the long lead time.

o Thundershowers will occur on a daily basis over the summer-grain production region, but these are expected to clear over the western parts by early next week where it will become warmer to hot:

▪ Maximum temperatures over the eastern maize-production areas will be in the order of 21 – 27°C, with lowest temperatures expected Friday and Saturday. Minimum temperatures will be in the order of 11 – 17°C. ▪ Maximum temperatures over the western maize-production region will range between 26 and 33°C, with the higher temperatures expected early next week and mostly in the far west. Minimums will be in the order of 15 – 19°C.