More rain before a drier period- South Africa


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• General: o Temperatures will be near normal for this time of the year over most of the country, but below normal over the central to eastern summer rainfall region, including the maize-production region where maximum temperatures will be suppressed. o Rainfall will be above normal, mainly across the Highveld, with below-normal rainfall expected over the rest of the country.

Showers or thundershowers are expected over most of the interior until Thursday, clearing from the west by Friday.

Rainfall totals may range between 25 and 50 mm over the maize-production areas according to current forecasts. o The cloudy conditions with precipitation will result in lower maximum temperatures over the central to eastern areas until Thursday / Friday (25th / 26th). o Very little to no rain is expected over the winter rainfall region.

Strong southeasterlies are expected in the southwest on Saturday (27th). Temperatures over the summer-grain production area will be somewhat lower, especially with reference to maximums:

▪ Maximum temperatures over the western maize-production areas will be in the order of 17 – 27°C, with cooler conditions expected on Wednesday and Thursday (24th / 25th). Minimum temperatures will be in the order of 12 – 18°C. ▪ Maximum temperatures over the eastern maize-production region will range between 17 and 25°C, with lowest temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday (24th / 25th). Minimums will be in the order of 8 – 14°C.

• Detailed:  Tuesday (23rd): Partly cloudy and mild to warm conditions will dominate, with cloudy conditions and thundershowers moving in from the northwest, into North West, Gauteng, western Free State and Northern Cape. It will become warm to hot over the southwestern parts. o Wednesday and Thursday (24th / 25th):

It will be cloudy and mild to cool with rain and thundershowers over the eastern parts of the Northern Cape, Free State, North West, southern Limpopo, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, KZN (especially along the Drakensberg), Eastern Cape (also mostly along the Drakensberg). Thundershowers (some severe storms possible) are also possible over the southern parts of the Northern Cape and northern parts of the Western Cape on Wednesday. It will be dry and warm over the southern parts of the Eastern Cape as well as over the Lowveld and Limpopo River Valley.

The West Coast and southwestern interior will remain hot until Thursday. Friday (26th): It will be dry over the western parts of the country while isolated thundershowers will remain in place over the central to eastern parts, clearing from the west during the day.

A cold front will result in light showers over the southern winter rainfall region. Scattered rain and thundershowers are expected over the southern coastal areas and adjacent interior.

Saturday (27 th): Sunny, mild and dry conditions will dominate across the interior and southwest, with light to moderate southwesterly winds in most areas. Scattered rain and showers are possible along the coast and interior of the Eastern Cape and KZN, moving into the Lowveld later during the day. 

Sunday (28 th): Sunny and mild conditions will dominate, becoming warm over the western and southwestern parts.

It will be cloudy and cooler over the southern to eastern coastal areas and adjacent interior as well as up north into the Lowveld. It will also become cloudy in the Limpopo River Valley. Isolated showers or thundershowers are possible over the northeastern parts – mainly along the escarpment.

Monday (29th): It will be sunny to partly cloudy and mild, but warm over the Northern Cape. Isolated thundershowers are possible over the interiors of the Northern Cape and Western Cape while it should remain dry over the rest of the country.

According to current model projections (GFS model) of weather conditions during the coming week, the following may be deduced:

• Strong southeasterly winds are expected over the southwestern parts on Saturday (27th). Where vegetation is dry, these conditions may be conducive to the development and spread of wild fires. • Cool, cloudy conditions over the maize production areas until Thursday (25th) will be conducive to the spread of fungal pathogens.

• Hot to very hot conditions are expected along the West Coast and the southwestern interior until Thursday (25th). • Thundershowers over the central to eastern Northern Cape, western Free State and surrounding areas may become severe on Wednesday and Thursday (24th / 25th). • Thundershowers over the southern interior may become severe on Friday (26 th).

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