When looking at the expected rain it look by April 18, a low-pressure system could cause rain over especially the more western parts of the country. The system can move southeast. The areas that can get rain then include the largest part of Namibia, the Northern Cape and the Eastern Cape, as well as parts of the Free State and the Western Cape. The very hot conditions that followed after rains in parts of the end of February occurring in the Northern Cape, field restoration is still very poor, especially as follow-up rains still occur did not occur.
Growth is also starting to decrease now. So cattle farmers are still struggling with grazing for winter and after winter over large parts of especially the Northern Cape. "As for the winter rainfall area, light rainfall is possible around mid-March, as well as in the latter part of March. Weather systems indicate a 50% chance of at least 10 mm of rain over parts of this winter rainfall region in the first week of April. Conditions are also starting to look more favorable for rain in the rest from April and May, but that could mean drier conditions later in the season. This is not so good news for Wheat production. Most of the dams in South Africa are not at the usual capacity this time of the year. In parts of the Western Free state lot's of rain damaged Maize crops and farmers in this area surely be able to plant Wheat as the water table and soil is in very good condition.
The Free State used to be seen as the breadbasket of South Africa, but now hardly produces any wheat because of farmers opting for crops that are more economically viable and have lower associated production risks.
Today about 75% of our wheat is produced under dryland conditions and 25% under irrigation. Winter wheat produced on dryland in the Western Cape accounts for about 50% of the country’s total production, whereas most of the summer wheat is produced under irrigation along major rivers in the Northern Cape.
Wheat production in South Africa is one of the segments worst affected by the economic realities faced by the industry. Crucial plans have therefore been put into practice to elevate wheat's status as a competitive crop, not only to solidify its position as a staple food but also to strengthen food security in the country.
Alternative crops with higher yields and profits have already replaced wheat as a rotation crop, particularly in the Free State dryland areas. In the Western Cape, alternative crops for wheat are limited, although the replacement of wheat by permanent crops could potentially lead to a socio-economic disaster.
There are some plans, however, that could prevent this disaster. These include incentives for seed companies to deliver cultivars that deliver higher yields – but without significantly impairing the quality of wheat for the milling and baking industry – and a change in the grading system.
In addition, a statutory levy was introduced to provide research and technology development funding for open pollinated crops and to encourage, as well as compensate, seed growers to make the latest breeding material available to South African farmers. The levy already applies to wheat and barley.
From the mid-1970s to the 1980s, South African farmers had, at times, produced so much wheat that nearly 20% of the crop could be exported. This wheat was of very good quality and made South Africa less dependent on the export market.
Meanwhile, alternative crops with increased yields and high-profit potential were introduced to the market, systematically replacing wheat on many farms. It is also possible for farmers to legally retain seed from their harvest for the next planting, making it unnecessary to buy seed every year. It creates a scenario in which plant breeders and seed companies are less likely to invest in the development of new cultivars since it costs millions of rand to develop and register a new cultivar.
Since then, wheat production has decreased by almost half while consumption has doubled, thus necessitating imports of approximately half of the domestic demand for wheat. There are several high-quality wheat cultivars available on the world market, but they are very expensive and availability varies according to climate and economic conditions.
The situation is exacerbated by large international transfer stocks of wheat that are putting pressure on prices (in many countries, wheat production is supported by the government, which eases the burden on farmers and increases stock levels). The demand for meat products, however, is on the rise and grains that can be used as silage, enjoy priority over crops such as wheat. There is also an increasing demand for maize and vegetable oils to produce biofuels, pushing wheat even further into the background.
According to a recent BFAP forecast, only 100,000ha of wheat will be cultivated under irrigation by 2024, and in the winter rainfall area, plantings should stabilise at roughly 250,000ha versus the 326,000ha measured in 2017. In the Free State, prospects of sufficient rain to cultivate wheat in dryland conditions, are much better than the previous years.
It is estimated that by 2024, approximately 2.5 million tonnes of grain will come from abroad. Based on these findings, a change in the cultivar release criteria was recommended to allow seed growers the opportunity to breed cultivars with better yield potential, instead of focusing only on wheat quality.
It has been determined that an increase of 25% in the existing yield will have a significant impact on the cultivation of wheat. This means that a predicted increase in wheat plantings of 60,000ha, together with an increase in yield, will produce an additional 2.5 million tonnes of wheat by 2024.
When it comes to climate, it seems as if the rainy season has shifted slightly, making the cultivation of traditional cultivars riskier in especially the Free State. In addition, the wheat price is linked to import parity (international wheat price) and new crops with an increased yield and profit potential higher than that of wheat, have been introduced.
Farmers use crop rotation systems to limit their risks. In the process, they usually look at which crops they can use most effectively to achieve this goal. Crops such as soya beans have become more popular than wheat, although farmers require more implements for such a system. Previously, summer crops were grown in summer and wheat in winter, which meant that only about half of the fields were cultivated at a time. Most of the alternative crops currently cultivated are planted in summer and all the fields must, therefore, be prepared at the same time.
Wheat is still cultivated under irrigation in the Free State and Northern Cape, but lower yields, diseases and the prices paid to the farmer are now also problematic. That is why wheat with a higher yield potential is essential.
In the Western Cape, however, there are few or no alternative crops. It is therefore vital for the industry to remain sustainable since grain farmers and especially rural communities, where agriculture provides the most employment opportunities, rely on it.
The disappearance of wheat in the Western Cape will spell the end of most of the province’s grain farmers. If permanent crops were to replace wheat, there will be extreme pressure on farmers’ cash flow due to the long transition times, while job availability and the socio-economic status of the rural community will also be affected.
With regard to the economics involved in wheat cultivation, the focus is mostly on quality, whereas yield receives little attention. It is also true that quality and yield are negatively correlated. As selection for yield increases, it is becoming more difficult to increase yield potential. As a result, South Africa has the best quality wheat in respect of milling and baking properties, but with relatively low yields.
As wheat is an open-pollinated crop, the resultant seed is identical to the parent crop, enabling farmers to retain a portion of their seed. Seed retention constrains the sales of the more expensive cultivated seeds, which means that seed companies and breeders are unable to fully recover the money spent on developing new cultivars. This also means that South African farmers do not have access to new, improved agricultural-related intellectual property that is available globally in the seed industry.
The system is essential to avert the deterioration of the wheat industry. If high-quality wheat is no longer available in South Africa, it will put unnecessary strain on the country’s food security policy.
Wheat is one of the oldest agricultural crops in the country, and the milling and baking industry is set up in such a way that it can sustainably utilise the quality wheat the local industry supplies.
A good extraction percentage from each grain of wheat is essential for the profitability of a mill. The flour a baker uses must exhibit good water absorption, dough extensibility and a short mixing time. Using wheat of a slightly lower quality to achieve the same results is possible with new technology, although consumers are very selective about the quality of the bread they buy.
South Africa currently faces a wheat production crisis, suggesting that current policies, research and development projects may not be well aligned to farmer priorities. Through exploratory research, which included field inspections and farmer and researcher interviews, we identified the major constraints to irrigation wheat yield and explored opportunities for improving the yield and farmer profits. The dominant constraint to yield was identified as the low market price for grain, which makes farmers reluctant to invest in inputs for increasing wheat yield. Poor cultivar choice, cereal-based monocropping, the high cost of irrigation, inadequate irrigation water, low crop stands, soil acidity, no-till practices and red-billed quelea (Quelea quelea) birds are negatively impacting yields. Most importantly, we highlight a misalignment between current research efforts and farmer priorities. Recommendations for corrective measures necessary to improve yield and farmer profits are provided. This new knowledge will be useful to policymakers and researchers for better orienting investments in research and development projects aimed at addressing the current wheat production crisis in the country. (SAJS)
As the season progress we will have a better picture of the wheat season.
